Authoritarianism is a persistent threat to democracy and the transatlantic alliance. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine is only its latest effort to expand its influence, while it continues to spread disinformation abroad and crush dissent at home. The Chinese Communist Party has continued to seek influence across the transatlantic space through disinformation and strategic economic investment as it starts to flex newly found military power.
Authoritarian Threats
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Data Center Attacks Matter But Not in the Way We Thought
When Ukrainian drones struck data centers in Russia, there were hopes a potent Kremlin shadow war weapon had been blunted. The reality is more complex.
Hybrid War Makes High North a Contest for NATO
The alliance must act with urgency if it wants to stop China and Russia getting the upper hand in the Arctic.
Europe’s Sanctions on Russia: Riddled With Loopholes
The EU has approved its largest-ever round of sanctions listings but significant exemptions are built into the system.
Managing Russia’s Military-Industrial Degradation: Navigating Wartime Industrial Constraints, Stockpile Exhaustion, and Hardware Attrition
Four years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military industry has entered a period of managed degradation.
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Comprehensive Report
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War Without End: Understanding Russia’s Shadow Warfare
To secure its grip on power, Russia adopts Soviet practices coupled with modern tactics of covert influence, violence, and manipulation.
Related Events
Discover the latest CEPA events on how the transatlantic alliance can respond to growing authoritarian threats.
January 17, 2023
Chinese Media Influence: Lessons Learned from Central and Eastern Europe
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Shaping a Transatlantic Response to Chinese Influence
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December 22, 2022
Melitopol: Life Under Russian Occupation
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Russian Cyberwarfare: Unpacking the Kremlin’s Capabilities
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November 10, 2026
Managing Russia’s Military-Industrial Degradation: Navigating Wartime Industrial Constraints, Stockpile Exhaustion, and Hardware Attrition
Four years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military industry has entered a period of managed degradation.
November 9, 2026
Data Center Attacks Matter But Not in the Way We Thought
When Ukrainian drones struck data centers in Russia, there were hopes a potent Kremlin shadow war weapon had been blunted. The reality is more complex.
November 9, 2026
Hybrid War Makes High North a Contest for NATO
The alliance must act with urgency if it wants to stop China and Russia getting the upper hand in the Arctic.
November 6, 2026
Europe’s Sanctions on Russia: Riddled With Loopholes
The EU has approved its largest-ever round of sanctions listings but significant exemptions are built into the system.
November 5, 2026
Supermarket Attacks: Europe Can’t Wait for Russian Fingerprints
This month’s attacks on Europe’s daily life may turn out to originate in Russia, but there’s no need to establish that before acting.
November 5, 2026
The Atlanticist Generation Leaves Congress
Congress is losing a cohort of strongly committed pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine figures, although their successors have every reason to maintain support.
November 4, 2026
Beware a Balkan Chinese-Russian Cyber Danger
Elections in Bosnia and Serbia underline the importance of beefing up cyber-defenses and limiting Chinese penetration of critical networks.
November 3, 2026
A Tungsten Truce – Allies Cannot Compete for Access
A Pentagon-backed US firm has bought into a Vietnamese tungsten company, and now Europe fears its arms industries won’t get the vital raw materials they need.
November 2, 2026
How China Might Target US Midterms
Although Chinese influence campaigns are not visible, Beijing could leverage WeChat messaging and DeepSeek.
November 2, 2026
India Stall Opens in Central Asia’s Military Bazaar
As Russia can no longer keep a steady flow of weapons deliveries, Central Asia looks elsewhere.
October 30, 2026
Russia: The Revolt of the Letter-Writers
Despite the Putin regime’s attempts to block criticism of its own behavior and Stalin’s atrocities, ordinary Russians are still gathering to oppose repression
October 30, 2026
Germany’s Security Consensus Assailed by Left and Right
Germany’s role as a central pillar of the alliance confronting Russia is under attack from the extremes. It cannot be ignored by the main centrist parties.
October 29, 2026
Ending China’s 60-Year Grip on Critical Minerals
The US and Europe allowed China to corner the market in critical minerals that enable modern life. Now, they must work together to secure a supply chain.
October 28, 2026
A US-China-Russia Summit: What’s at Stake?
A three-way meeting offers benefits to Putin but not to the US or China.
October 27, 2026
Exiled Russian Musicians Fill Arenas to Inspire the Lost Generation
In the Soviet era, dissidents were inspired by the illicit sounds of Western Rock’n’Roll, now exiled Russians can oppose Vladimir Putin’s regime to a homegrown soundtrack.
October 27, 2026
Russia’s Drone Incursions Multiply in Moldova
Russian airspace incursions are increasing — and Moscow has issued veiled threats to target the country’s drone production.
October 26, 2026
Russia’s Ministry of Control
The Ministry of Digital Development has been undergoing major and unsettling changes.
October 26, 2026
Action Needed to Get Ukraine’s Grain to the World
Ukraine’s economy is heavily dependent on grain exports, but Moscow’s attacks are blocking the flow. Action is needed to revive the trade.
October 26, 2026
Nostalgic Nightmares in Romania
The country has made huge progress since joining the European Union. But danger signs are mounting.
October 23, 2026
Solar Surprise: Dealing with a Surplus
Renewable energy production must be matched by grid investments.
October 23, 2026
Russia’s Ominous Migrant Weaponization
Recent events show the Russian-Belarusian playbook moving from migrant pressure towards coercion, presenting Europe with some tough dilemmas.
October 23, 2026
Spheres of Influence Won’t Help the US
Sacrificing small nations to please the world’s biggest countries is a dead end. The US in particular has much more to lose than to gain.
October 22, 2026
Western Embassies Must Stay in Bomb-Blasted Kyiv
Russia is determined to force Ukraine’s allies out of their diplomatic missions this winter. This has to be resisted.
October 22, 2026
Turkey and Azerbaijan: Old Allies Fall Out
A deterioration in relations between Baku and Ankara appears relatively minor, but there are deeper and more serious issues at play.
October 22, 2026
Ukraine’s Medical Evacuations Go Airborne
Multiple thousands of Ukrainian troops have lost limbs while trapped on an unforgiving frontline. Drone tech is seeking to restore military medicine’s ‘golden hour’.
October 21, 2026
Pen Pushers Help Engineers Keep Ukraine’s Lights On
Ukraine is rapidly decentralizing its energy system, but protection from the cold and dark this winter will depend on local authorities getting facilities running in time.
October 21, 2026
Could China and Russia Rescue Cuba’s Regime?
The US blockade of Cuba’s energy supplies has brought the island nation to the brink of collapse, but Beijing and Moscow are trying to help Havana weather the storm.
October 20, 2026
Raw Material Risk Threatens Europe’s Drone Race
China’s stranglehold on the raw materials needed for drones threatens Europe’s defenses. The solution will take time it doesn’t have.
October 20, 2026
NATO Must Prepare for Russian Missile Swarms
It would be foolish to assume that Ukraine alone is at risk from Russia’s hugely increased production of unmanned aerial munitions.
October 19, 2026
Russian Strikes Rise Across NATO’s Eastern Flank
The past month has seen a rising drumbeat of attacks by Russian drones and saboteurs from the Baltic states to the Black Sea.
October 19, 2026
It’s the Networks, Stupid
The UK’s new agency to tackle malign information attacks is a good idea, but its precise role must be swiftly agreed.
October 15, 2026
Dodging Russian Drones on Europe’s Highway to Hell
The old talk of a peaceful European future comes to a shuddering halt in the lands of eastern Ukraine.
October 14, 2026
Russia Restocks its Hostage Bank
An arrest in Russia’s Far East is far more significant than it first appears.
October 14, 2026
US and Europe Tied by Mutual Dependence, Says Finland’s Stubb
The US and Europe are increasingly relying on each other despite strains in the transatlantic alliance, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
October 13, 2026
How Russia’s War Against Ukraine is Spreading to North Africa
The Mediterranean is fast becoming another front in Russia’s war in Ukraine, with Kyiv reported to have struck Russian shipping and Moscow accelerating its arms buildup in North Africa.
October 13, 2026
The State That Cannot Say Plague
The Russian state always lies in a crisis, and Putin’s regime has shut down the truth-tellers. This inflicts enormous costs on Russians and maybe the rest of us.
October 9, 2026
Readying the Nordics for War – Let’s Not Waste Time
The Nordic countries should plow ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available.
October 9, 2026
Putin and Xi United by a Love of Corruption
Failure to address corruption has weakened democracies and enabled organized crime, but Russia and China use graft an instrument of state control.
October 8, 2026
Allies in Innovation: Forging a Transatlantic Biotechnology Partnership to Meet the China Challenge
US and Europe cooperation on biotechnology talent, capital, scientific infrastructure, and research capacity will prevent China from establishing irreversible dominance in the field.
October 8, 2026
CEPA Launches Global Shadow War Initiative
CEPA launches new initiative to get ahead of adversarial hybrid attacks.
October 7, 2026
China Needs Russia in the Fight
Russia is increasingly dependent on China, but that does not make the relationship one-sided. Moscow still brings assets to the partnership that Beijing cannot afford to lose.
October 6, 2026
Key European Airports Need Permanent Drone Defenses
Europe is woefully unprepared for the realities of drone warfare, and a coordinated Russian attack would do very serious harm. It urgently needs a plan.
October 5, 2026
Russia Attacks – Would NATO Freeze?
The idea that NATO forces would hesitate if engaged by the Russians is misguided, says former alliance official and US Army Maj. Gen. (rtd.) Skip Davis.
October 5, 2026
Putin and His War Without End
The Russian leader has set out his demands: Europe must bend the knee, or the war will go on and on and on.
October 2, 2026
The US Bets Big on Eurasia
The US has strategic and economic reasons to be a key player in Eurasia, and the Trump administration is laying the groundwork to make it happen.
October 1, 2026
Russia: A Menu of Death in Ukraine’s Small Towns
Russia’s abuse of civilians in occupied Ukraine is in the news, but it’s far more widespread than realized.
September 30, 2026
Russia’s Rage Fixes on the British
Russia’s increasingly fiery rhetoric over British support for Ukraine is about more than war damage. The Kremlin sees the UK as a Western first mover inspiring other European states.
September 30, 2026
FSB Focuses Crosshairs on Russian Exiles
The Kremlin’s campaign to harass, intimidate, and murder opponents takes another major step back to the days of Stalin.
September 30, 2026
Kyiv: When Night Phantoms Arrive in Daytime
For years, air attacks in Kyiv came mostly came at night. That has changed and daily life has changed with it.
September 28, 2026
Russia’s 2027 Budget: Guns Now, Pay Later
Moscow’s new budget funds another year of war by squeezing everything else, and even that plan is unlikely to survive contact with reality.
September 28, 2026
The Russia-North Korea Partnership: Transactional Only
Ties between the two countries are based on self-interest. That opens a small window of opportunity for Ukraine and its allies.
September 25, 2026
How to Fight Putin’s War on Reality
If the West wants change in Moscow, it needs to stop undermining Russia’s opposition media as it reports the truth about the Kremlin’s disastrous war.
September 24, 2026
Dispersal: Saving Ukraine From Russia’s Winter Blitz
Russia plans to freeze Ukraine into submission this winter. There are ways to thwart it and protect the population.
September 22, 2026
Narrative Failure: Russia and the West have a Storytelling Problem
Persuasion is most effective when there’s a compelling story, but after four and a half years of full-scale war, neither Moscow nor the West has produced a clear narrative of the conflict or how it might end.
September 22, 2026
Russian Fertilizer: Nourishing the Roots of War
A lack of sanctions means the Russian fertilizer industry has had a very good war. That needs to change.
September 18, 2026
Russia’s Rigged Elections Still Serve a Purpose
Putin’s regime fixes election outcomes, but relies on the real numbers to assess resistance.
September 18, 2026
Russia’s Election Campaign Puts Governors on the Hook
The Kremlin devolves vote fixing and coerced turnout to the leaders of its regions. Expectations are high and failure is punished.
September 18, 2026
The Big Day Looms for Putin’s Election Fixers
Why does the Russian regime bother with elections? In part because it has become an imperative for a bureaucracy to maintain its influence and wealth.
September 18, 2026
Kremlin Vote-Fakers Crush the Liberals
The Yabloko party seemed suddenly popular as Duma elections approached. This rattled the Kremlin and brought a familiar despotic response.
September 18, 2026
How to Defeat Russia’s Shadow War
The Kremlin-directed attacks on Europe are a sign of weakness. Europe must craft a robust new response to raise the pressure on Russia.
September 16, 2026
Russia’s Neighbors Battle Oil Addiction
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil refineries have triggered shortages across neighboring countries which have depended on Moscow for decades.
September 15, 2026
On a Train Under Russian Attack
I was on a train heading for Poland when Russian drones attacked, writes CEPA Fellow Mitzi Perdue. The strikes came shortly after a Kremlin threat to target railroads carrying foreign visitors.
September 14, 2026
Germany: Russia’s Enemy No. 1
Russia’s latest assault on Europe is targeted at its most determined opponents. Governments are still unsure how to respond.
September 14, 2026
Armenia Battles to Buy Time
Putin is pressuring Armenia to make difficult decisions before it loses the ability to pressure a pro-Western government.
September 14, 2026
Kremlin Prepares to Cross the Final Red Line
The majority of Russians oppose forced mobilization to the war in Ukraine, but the Kremlin has been preparing the ground to make it happen.
September 14, 2026
Frontline Arctic: The Evolution of Russia’s Military Posture in a Changing Arctic
Russia is turning the Arctic into a fortress, a frontline, and a contested space. US and NATO allies must understand the risks.
September 11, 2026
Armenia’s Relations With Russia? Worsening
No compromise between the sides is expected and Russian ultimatums remain in place.
September 11, 2026
CEPA Podcast: General (Ret.) Daniel Petrescu on What is Next for the NATO Alliance
Alliance spending, defense innovation, the Black Sea, and more.
September 10, 2026
Dangerous Partners: The Russia-China Military Embrace
Russo-Chinese missile and space cooperation is deeply concerning for Western militaries, and may involve secret protocols that we can only guess at.
September 8, 2026
No Magic Bullet to End Russian Sabotage
Western countries still hope for a simple response to the Kremlin’s rising wave of destruction. Instead, the answer lies in the lessons of the Cold War.
September 8, 2026
The Quiet Battle Against Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Ukraine’s dramatic attacks on Black Sea shipping have grabbed headlines, but a more subtle campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet is underway.
September 4, 2026
Europe and US Need a Plan for Economic Friendly Fire
New US sanctions legislation is on a collision course with the European Union’s anti-coercion rules. Sensitivity is needed on both sides to avoid a damaging clash of allies.
September 4, 2026
Can Russian Meddling Swing France’s Presidential Election?
Russian-linked information manipulation has targeted three of France’s most pro-Ukrainian candidates ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Will it work?
September 3, 2026
Strengthening Signals of Imminent Russian Mobilization
Russia cannot recruit sufficient soldiers for its war in Ukraine. Despite official denials, there is growing evidence another round of forced mobilization is on the way.
September 2, 2026
Tech Alliances Fit for the Future
It’s true that allies won’t be able to have their cake and eat it too: the choice between partnership with the US vs. China when it comes to critical technologies is one that allies will have to make.
August 27, 2026
Lukashenka’s ‘Capitulation’ to Zelenskyy’s Ultimatum
There was more to the Belarusian autocrat’s climbdown to Ukraine than met the eye. And repeating the trick would be extremely unwise.
August 27, 2026
Trump’s Route Begins to Re-Make the South Caucasus
The project unites the common interest of the participating states.
August 27, 2026
Data Centers Move Center Stage
Strong majorities on both sides of the Atlantic oppose the construction of AI data centers. China could benefit.
August 26, 2026
Ukrainians Embrace God but Shun Moscow Orthodoxy
Russia’s full-scale invasion has transformed almost every aspect of Ukrainian life, including people’s faith.
August 26, 2026
Panicked Putin Reaches for Nationalization Button
The Kremlin has followed a long and tortuous road to get back to where Lenin started.
August 25, 2026
NATO’s Missing Link: Shielding Vulnerable Infrastructure
Infrastructure within the alliance must be resilient. Major projects should be assessed with this in mind.
August 25, 2026
European NATO: How to Attack Russia
The continent is rethinking its reliance on the US, while spending much more money on defense. Now it must sharpen its combat power.
August 25, 2026
Digital Silk Road Builds Big Balkan Shadow
Despite US and European efforts, Chinese telecom suppliers remain entrenched in Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.
August 24, 2026
How AI-Driven Influence Operations Attack Ukraine
It’s not just missiles that are hitting Kyiv. Russia is leveraging Chinese artificial intelligence to spread lies about the conflict.
August 21, 2026
Wind Blows Strong – Amid Political Turbulence
Modern windmills generate much-needed electricity. Consistent regulations and subsidies are required to reach their full potential.
August 19, 2026
The Coded Resistance of Russian Youth
Gen Z shuns Putin’s war and quietly mourns lost freedoms and vanished opportunities.
August 19, 2026
Ukraine’s War After the War
Russia won’t stop its campaign even after the fighting stops, but Ukraine is battle-hardened in more than one way.
August 18, 2026
Whisper Music to Our Weary Spirits
An Alpine classical music festival was a reminder that art can still unify across borders, despite the challenges.
August 17, 2026
Russia’s Nuclear Weapons: Sanctified by God?
The Russian Orthodox Church is an outlier among religious groups in its embrace of, and enthusiasm for, weapons of mass destruction.
August 13, 2026
Romania’s Gas Surplus? Bury it in Ukraine
Pairing Romania’s Black Sea gas with Ukraine’s vast storage network can boost the continent’s energy security.
August 13, 2026
From Guns to Gulags: The FSB’s Empire Builders
The days when the KGB’s successors were content with plain clothes and concealed weapons are gone — they are much more ambitious these days.
August 13, 2026
Tracking My Son to His Grave: Nina’s Story
There is more evidence of war crimes now than ever before, courtesy of devices in the hands of combatants. What it reveals is heartbreaking.
August 12, 2026
Ukrainian Justice Struggles to Keep Pace with Russia’s Crimes
Ukraine has investigated almost a quarter million atrocities by Russian forces, but its judicial system struggles to meet prosecution demand.