The US Senate approved legislation sending $95 billion of aid to allies. The February 13 decision, which had long seemed uncertain, was, in the end, an overwhelming display of bipartisan unity, with passage agreed by 70 votes to 29.
The legislation, including $60.1 billion for Ukraine, now moves to the House, where it faces strong resistance from Republicans taking their lead from the party’s likely Presidential candidate, Donald Trump. He has opposed any grants from the US to Ukraine (but has suggested he might be open to loans.)
Regardless, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that his majority would not accept a bill that excluded funding for border security and measures to limit the large numbers of migrants. Johnson can simply refuse to advance the legislation to a vote.
And yet, things may be as bleak as they seem.
Firstly — as CEPA Distinguished Fellow Kurt Volker has pointed out — there is a majority for Ukraine aid in both houses of Congress. The numbers may not be as overwhelming as they once were, given Trump’s influence, but pro-Ukrainian House Republicans are not extinct.
Secondly, there’s a procedural route around a Johnson blockage.
This is known as a discharge petition. It is rarely used (for reasons that will become clear), but it might just work.
The petition requires the support of a House majority, that is, 218 members. The passage allows a bill to be rescued from the committee (thus the discharge) and brought to the floor for a vote.
Like many Congressional rules, it’s not easy to use. That’s deliberate because it takes an issue out of the Speaker’s hands, and both parties are keen to maintain their powers.
And the delays can be very long indeed — some estimates suggesting it can take months to work even if it succeeds.
So, much will depend on how hard the House leadership wants to fight against Ukraine aid.
There are risks for Johnson and his lieutenants. If a group of House Republicans is determined to break ranks and vote with the Democrats, that represents a cost to the House leadership in an election year by illustrating a publicly divided Republican caucus.
There is also a worry in the leaderships of all finely balanced legislatures (The House is currently divided 219-212) that once rebels drink the heady liquor of rebellion, they develop a taste for it.
So, while extreme-right Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene have threatened to unseat Johnson if he allows any aid to reach Ukraine, there may be a route that would allow him to deflect the blame.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
