How can I be so confident? Because the vast majority of Republicans and Democrats in both Houses of Congress support it, and nobody wants to vote on this again during a Presidential election year. For all concerned, that means approval is better agreed upon sooner rather than later.
Ukrainians and other Europeans are understandably worried because as of mid-January, Congress has still not voted to approve the new support package. According to former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andrii Zagarodnyuk, the delay is beginning to be felt on the battlefield as the pace of ammunition supply slows.
Yet this is not, as often reported, because of declining support for such aid in the United States generally, and among Republicans in particular.
While it is true that support has dropped slightly since Russia’s all-out war of aggression began nearly two years ago, at least 75% of members of Congress support the aid package, as do a good majority of the general public The Reagan National Defense Survey in November found that 59% of Americans support continuing military aid, the same number as in June and in November 2022.
Majorities of both Republicans and Democrats agree that helping Ukraine is in the US national interest. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairmen Mike McCaul, Mike Turner, and Mike Rogers all support the aid package, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will support bringing it to a floor vote that will surely be positive.
So what’s the delay? It is not disagreement over Ukraine, but over how to handle the tidal wave of illegal immigration washing across the US southern border.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded 2.5 million encounters with illegal migrants coming across the Mexico border in 2023, up from 2.2 million in 2022. An average of more than 7,000 a day crossed in December, for a total of 225,000, the highest monthly total in more than two decades. And these are only those who are processed. Many more are never caught or tracked.
This has led to major crises not only in the US border states such as Texas and Arizona but in major cities across the country.
Republicans in Congress are insisting that urgent action be taken to stem this flow. They argue that it is politically unsustainable to tell their voters that they have approved another $61bn to help Ukraine recover its borders, while they have not done nearly enough to protect the US border.
Most Democrats also agree that something should be done about the border (and some are even privately telling Republicans they are right to keep pushing the issue in the face of White House resistance). But most Democrats disagree with Republicans over the necessary fixes. A minority of progressive (left-wing) Democrats, to whom the White House must pay at least some attention, do not want to see any new restrictions at all.
A further complicating factor had been the lack of agreement on the overall federal budget for 2024, independent from and much bigger than the supplemental spending package covering Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the US southern border.
An initial set of budget deadlines would have begun to have an effect in mid-January and early February, but the pressure has eased temporarily since Congress agreed on an overall spending “top-line” for 2024, and pushed these deadlines back to March.
This will allow lawmakers to stay focused on the southern border issue, which in turn will unlock the overall supplemental spending bill.
What is the state of play? Three US Senators – a Republican, a Democrat, and an independent – have been negotiating a compromise deal on border spending and policies. They claim to have made significant progress, but some issues still remain. Those should be resolved within the next week or two, but it is a high-stakes and difficult political struggle.
Any compromise will by definition leave both the right-wing Republican “Freedom Caucus” and progressive Democrats deeply unsatisfied. But majorities of both Republicans and Democrats will support action over inaction.
Once a final deal is brokered in the Senate, there will still be some haggling in the House. But, as mentioned, that package should come to a floor vote in both chambers and receive majority support, unlocking the aid to Ukraine and Israel as well.
The not-insignificant challenge for House Speaker Johnson is to have a strong enough package regarding the border to stave off a no-confidence vote such as brought down his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, in October. He has to show his own party that he has won concessions from the administration.
There is one final and important point to note; the administration actually has other means of supporting Ukraine if the supplemental does not pass. It can exercise authority to lend Ukraine funds for defense articles through the already approved “Lend-Lease Act.”
It can declare more goods to be “excess defense articles” and then transfer them, rather than use draw-down authority to cover their replacement costs. And it can use other types of emergency national security spending powers.
None of these are ideal, however, and both Congress and the White House believe the best approach is to pass new supplemental spending legislation. If President Putin believes that US aid to Ukraine is blocked, he has a shock coming.
Ambassador Kurt Volker is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. A leading expert in US foreign and national security policy, he served as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017-2019, and as US Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
