Authoritarianism is a persistent threat to democracy and the transatlantic alliance. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine is only its latest effort to expand its influence, while it continues to spread disinformation abroad and crush dissent at home. The Chinese Communist Party has continued to seek influence across the transatlantic space through disinformation and strategic economic investment as it starts to flex newly found military power.
Authoritarian Threats
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Hesitation Risks Escalation: Europe and Russia’s Shadow War
The West has failed to stop Russia’s shadow war. CEPA assessed the steps needed to restore credible deterrence.
Europe’s Next Catastrophe Will Be No Accident
Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late.
Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?
There are significant risks for the South Caucasus and Europe from the possible spread of the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The ‘Meloni Model’ Won’t Tame France’s Populist Right
France and Italy are profoundly different nations with different political cultures, whatever some people might imagine.
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Comprehensive Report
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War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare
To secure its grip on power, Russia adopts Soviet practices coupled with modern tactics of covert influence, violence, and manipulation.
Related Events
Discover the latest CEPA events on how the transatlantic alliance can respond to growing authoritarian threats.
January 17, 2023
Chinese Media Influence: Lessons Learned from Central and Eastern Europe
Event
China
Disinformation
January 12, 2023
Shaping a Transatlantic Response to Chinese Influence
Event
China
Disinformation
Regional Security
December 22, 2022
Melitopol: Life Under Russian Occupation
Event
Hybrid Threats
Regional Security
Russia
September 8, 2022
Russian Cyberwarfare: Unpacking the Kremlin’s Capabilities
Event
Cybersecurity
Regional Security
Russia
Event
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April 2, 2026
The ‘Meloni Model’ Won’t Tame France’s Populist Right
France and Italy are profoundly different nations with different political cultures, whatever some people might imagine.
April 1, 2026
Hesitation Risks Escalation: Europe and Russia’s Shadow War
The West has failed to stop Russia’s shadow war. CEPA assessed the steps needed to restore credible deterrence.
April 1, 2026
Europe’s Next Catastrophe Will Be No Accident
Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late.
April 1, 2026
Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?
There are significant risks for the South Caucasus and Europe from the possible spread of the US-Israeli war with Iran.
April 1, 2026
Cyber Warfare 101: Bluff Don’t Tell
Uncertainty is leverage in cyber conflict. Iran possibly diluted its threats of electronic devastation by demonstrating how little it can do.
March 31, 2026
War Without End: Deterring Russia’s Shadow War
Either Europe will continue allowing Russia’s shadow war to set the terms of escalation, or it will act now to prevent a larger war.
March 30, 2026
Pollution and Power Cuts: Russia Targets Moldova
The Kremlin has not ended its efforts to subvert and capture Moldova, as recent events make clear.
March 30, 2026
Putin Tells Billionaires to Fill the Begging Bowl
There is no sense of rejoicing in the Kremlin, even as the oil price soars and revenues rise.
March 27, 2026
A Playbook to Clear the Strait of Hormuz
The US and allies have recent experience working together in maritime choke points that should be considered in any operation close to Iran.
March 26, 2026
Moscow’s Plasticine Man Comes to Washington
The Russian parliamentarians now arriving in the US have very little influence back home. Their trip has another purpose.
March 26, 2026
Who Owns America’s Tech Future?
A surge of foreign investment in US tech raises tough questions about supply chain security.
March 25, 2026
Putin Demands More Efficient Military Corruption
Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency.
March 25, 2026
Russia’s Gray Man Makes His Move
Putin’s defense minister is confounding his critics and winning greater power in Russia’s murky despotism.
March 24, 2026
Russia: Give Me Your Poor, Your Starving Masses
The Kremlin is hard-wired to spot opportunity amid chaos. War-related food shortages provide an unexpected bonus.
March 20, 2026
CEPA Podcast: The Hon. Michael Turner on How to Build Lasting Peace in Europe
Representative Michael Turner discusses the anniversary of the Dayton Accords, NATO, and building a lasting peace in Ukraine.
March 20, 2026
Made in Europe 2.0
Will Brussels’ new Buy European proposal help rescue its industry or pursue a protectionist mirage?
March 19, 2026
A New Russian Game on the Borders of the Baltics
We should care about Russian provocations but it’s extremely important how we care.
March 17, 2026
Meeting China’s Tech Challenge
China has launched an aggressive blueprint to dominate global tech innovation. The US and allies must respond — together.
March 17, 2026
Sausage and the Language of Belarusian Dictatorship
Despite being freed by the Belarusian dictatorship, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski says the West should recognize hostage diplomacy as a dead end.
March 16, 2026
Cold War: Moscow Targets Europe’s Communal Heating
Russia is using hackers and saboteurs to target Europe’s municipal heating systems. Their war isn’t confined to Ukraine.
March 16, 2026
What is Shadow Warfare? Russia’s New Hybrid Warfare
Shadow warfare is the evolution of hybrid war using sabotage, espionage, and more to damage adversaries while avoiding open conflict.
March 13, 2026
Aces High: Zelenskyy Plays His Hand
It turns out that Ukraine has many more cards to play in its fight for national survival than many had thought. President Zelenskyy is playing them with some skill.
March 12, 2026
Russia Plans an Invasion of the Body Snatchers
The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil.
March 11, 2026
A Crypto River Runs Through It
New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities.
March 9, 2026
And So It Begins: Iran’s Terror Proxies Emerge From the Shadows
The Tehran regime’s spy networks were always likely to attack in Europe. Now it seems the orders have been given.
March 6, 2026
Russia’s Summer Campaign to Darken Ukraine’s Winter
The energy grid is the frontline in Ukraine, but Moscow’s electricity infrastructure blitz has a bigger goal: to destroy Kyiv’s war machine.
March 5, 2026
US Chips and China: A Confusing Cocktail
Washington is easing cutting-edge chip export licenses to China — though the Supreme Court now limits substituting tariffs.
March 5, 2026
Chinese De-Risking: Europe Needs to Accelerate
Europe is ripping out Chinese telephone equipment. But what about other dangerous Chinese tech?
March 4, 2026
Russia, Europe, and the Iran War — CEPA Fellows
Experts assess the consequences of the war on Iran.
March 4, 2026
Iran War Won’t Save Putin’s Crumbling Economy
Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math.
March 2, 2026
Putin’s Legacy: Nations of Widows and Orphans
Vladimir Putin’s attempt to destroy the Ukrainian people though an unprovoked war is also wiping out entire ethnic minorities across Russia.
February 27, 2026
Sound of Silence — The Russian Military Comms Collapse
Russian military communications collapsed in early February along much of the 1,200 km (750 mile) front line. For Ukrainian forces it was a rare opportunity to counterattack.
February 27, 2026
Putin Exposed by Ukraine’s Wicked Witches
Vladimir Putin made a rare admission of weakness when he admitted Ukraine has better heavy drones than Russia, and that Moscow is struggling to catch up. Why does it matter?
February 26, 2026
The War? Getting Better and Better, Say Kremlin Mouthpieces
The words used by the Kremlin’s talking heads are at odds with their gloomy facial expressions.
February 25, 2026
Behind the Lines: The Agents Driving Ukraine’s Covert War of Attrition
Ukraine’s Atesh movement is a thorn in the Kremlin’s side. With 2,000 agents in the Russian army and working in the occupied territories, its tactics have evolved for a war of attrition.
February 24, 2026
More Western, Less Eastern – A Post-Orbán Hungary
If Hungary’s opposition successfully unseats Viktor Orbán, relations with Brussels will improve. But only up to a point.
February 24, 2026
Man on a Mission: Ukraine’s New Defense Chief
Mykhailo Fedorov is viewed as a tech prodigy and brings a reputation for innovation. Can he shake-up the military bureaucracy?
February 23, 2026
Russia’s Paranoid Despot and His Secret Police
Putin’s secret police organizations are among a small band of winners from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
February 23, 2026
Ukraine: A War of Western Failure
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians are still asking when the West will match its warm words and good intentions with decisive support.
February 23, 2026
Ukraine: Busted Myths After Four Years of War
The certainties of 2022 feel a long way off on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
February 23, 2026
Ukraine’s Human Rights: More Than Words
Russia has sought to extinguish human rights in the four years since its full-scale invasion and 12 years since the war began. Ukrainians fight to keep them alive.
February 20, 2026
What Is Our Ukraine Policy? Victory, Victory at All Costs
As Churchill said of another war, Ukraine and the West must have “victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be.”
February 20, 2026
Europe Embraces Chinese EVs
Europeans are snapping up Chinese electric vehicles as the continent, spurned by the US, turns to Beijing.
February 20, 2026
Ukraine Needs Stronger Institutions Right Now
The country’s democratic institutions have shown amazing resilience under pressure of war, but need immediate reform to support peacetime rebuilding and political debate.
February 19, 2026
Cuba’s Woes Threaten the Kremlin’s Authoritarian International
The Kremlin and its allies in Havana are united by a desire to undermine democratic systems. That relationship may be at risk.
February 18, 2026
Time to Embrace the Western Balkans
Both Europe and the US will benefit once the six Western Balkan candidates join the EU.
February 18, 2026
Ukraine 2036: How Today’s Investments Will Shape Tomorrow’s Security
Ukraine is at an inflection point, and its future will be decided now.
February 17, 2026
Chinese EVs Drive Around US Protectionism
As China’s car companies race ahead conquering global markets, US competitors retreat.
February 17, 2026
How Nuclear Weapons Keep the Wolf From the Door
Unilateral disarmament, and its sister of Western-only disarmament, remain strangely popular with some thinkers. They’re wrong; it’s a path to disaster.
February 13, 2026
Saving Ukraine’s Power Grid
Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine’s power supply is not just an attempt to freeze its people into submission but a systematic attack on its military. Allies must take note.
February 13, 2026
Can Russia Be Rescued by Disaster in Ukraine?
Past Russian military defeats have presaged political change. Could the mass casualties in Ukraine help a new generation of reformers come to the fore?
February 12, 2026
Death Without Glory: Russia’s Message to the Frontline Soldier
Russia’s poorest people face a grim choice — an existence of grinding poverty, or gambling your life and limbs on the regime’s imperial adventure.
February 12, 2026
Kyiv Battles to Shelter Ports From Russian Onslaught
Moscow’s increase in attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and shipping is draining resources and threatening wheat exports.
February 11, 2026
Kremlin Shivers as US Enters the South Caucasus
Vice President Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan signals a shifting balance of power in the region, and it’s not in Russia’s favor.
February 10, 2026
Militarization or Resistance — The Choice for Young Russians
Some young people resist Kremlin pressure to create a generation of Putin-supporting nationalists. The West must recognize and support them.
February 9, 2026
US Export Controls Boomerang
American policy long has involved magical and wishful thinking, combined with hubris.
February 9, 2026
Musk Throttles Russia’s Battlefield Communications
Attacks on Ukraine’s frontline have been slowing since sudden curbs limited Moscow’s use of Starlink satellites, forcing it to seek workarounds.
February 9, 2026
Stormy Weather Pummels Russia’s Economy
Russia’s economy is already suffering strong headwinds in 2026. Cracks are appearing, and more trouble is certain.
February 6, 2026
Russia: The Price of ‘Treason’
State security agencies are amplifying warnings to enemies of the state using compliant pro-Kremlin journalists.
February 5, 2026
How Crypto Funds Russia’s War
Russia’s use of cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions has exposed a gap in the international community’s attempts to throttle Moscow’s war machine.
February 5, 2026
Russia–Azerbaijan: Relations Back on the Rocks
The Kremlin’s idea of a rapprochement is very different to Baku’s.
February 3, 2026
Europe Needs a Military Operations Center in Ukraine
A proposal: The continent’s militaries should build a command center in Ukraine to help fight Russia and form the nucleus of a post-US operational command.
February 3, 2026
The Start of the End? The End of New START
We are passing an ominous milestone in global efforts to reduce nuclear weapons, writes Lynn Rusten, part of earlier US nuclear arms control negotiating teams.
January 30, 2026
Europe Should Exploit Georgia’s Regime Ructions
Purges and recriminations at the top of Georgia’s governing party have created an opportunity for Europe to support democracy.
January 30, 2026
The Internet, Switched Off
Iran’s shutdown underlines how governments around the globe are restricting internet access.
January 29, 2026
The Battle to Maintain Ukraine’s Water Supplies
Moscow’s onslaught is depriving Ukrainians of water as well as heat and light. Post-war rebuilding will have to include massive investment in pipes and processing plants.
January 28, 2026
A West Without America
The world is becoming a more troubled and dangerous place. That’s why Europe’s rift with the US must produce a new security deal for the democratic West.
January 28, 2026
Christ in the Crosshairs: Moscow’s War on Ukraine’s Churches
The Kremlin is using imperialist repression techniques to break the spirit of the country’s defenders.
January 28, 2026
First Xi, Now Carney – Davos Never Learns
Hypocrisy remains the surest path to acclaim at gatherings of the global elite, where saying the right things matters more than getting things right.
January 27, 2026
Russia: Six Lessons From Iran’s Uprising
After losing its allies in Syria and Venezuela, a relieved Moscow will applaud the bloody suppression of the Iranian protests.
January 27, 2026
Ukraine Penetrates the Fog of War
The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast. Could Western armies adapt as quickly?
January 27, 2026
The Senseless Return of ‘Change Through Trade’
The US and other free societies need to relearn that freewheeling economic engagement with unfree systems risks security and prosperity.
January 26, 2026
The Key Theme of Davos 2026? Ice
The Trump reality show barreled into the Swiss Alps with a roar that drowned out critical developments in Ukraine and Iran.
January 23, 2026
CEPA Podcast: H.E. Olha Stefanishyna on Ukraine’s Defining Moments
Newly appointed Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna discusses her life, career, and work toward Ukraine’s future.
January 23, 2026
I Can Buy a British Election for $25m: Here’s How
The UK’s protections against political interference are analog in a digital age, leaving it wide open to corruption and foreign interference.
January 22, 2026
Europe’s New Cyber Rules Target China — and US
Proposed legislation attempts to reduce dependency on risky tech vendors. Good luck.
January 22, 2026
Putin Unleashes Cold and Sickness on Ukraine
Russia’s deliberate and systematic attacks on Ukraine’s hospitals, ambulances, and medical suppliers are causing a cascading public health crisis.
January 22, 2026
Art, Gold, and Putin Regime Loyalists
Every aspect of life in Russia’s despotic system must be controlled to ensure conformity.
January 21, 2026
Slovakia: Technicolor Culture Wars and Grayscale Economics
Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government is struggling to make the sums add up.
January 20, 2026
A Romania-Moldova Union? Work Has Begun
Moldova’s unification with Romania may not be popular with voters on either side of the border but the two countries’ energy security policies tell a different story.
January 20, 2026
Moldova’s Unification With Romania Back on the Table
More than three decades after the collapse of the USSR, the old narrative about Moldova’s unification with Romania is again revived.
January 20, 2026
How a Balkan Wind Farm Aids US National Security
Energy suppliers in southeastern Europe are heavily politicized and sometimes nefarious. The US can aid democratic stability through energy engagement.
January 15, 2026
Russia’s Thuggish New Ally? Midwinter
Ukraine is suffering badly, with implications for significant population movement. Western allies can help, if they acknowledge the threat.
January 15, 2026
A Tale of Three Cities: Eastern Europe’s Renaissance
The revival of three written-off cities in Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria shows how vision, engagement, and investment can help rebuild communities.
January 14, 2026
Pax Silica — Can it Stop China?
The US has launched a coalition to head off China’s challenge to its semiconductor supremacy. It needs work.
January 13, 2026
Russia Loses Venezuela, the Avocado Ally
The Kremlin has waved goodbye to another ally, at a low-ish cost in rubles but a higher price in political currency.
January 13, 2026
Russia’s Propagandists: Welcome to 2026, the Year of the Savage
Humanity’s base nature is once again triumphing, say Putin’s commentators. Say hello to the return of cruelty, greed, and bloodlust.
January 12, 2026
What a Wonderful World: Subzero Ukraine Edition
When you live in Ukraine, you learn that the weather forecast is not just about weather.
January 12, 2026
Ukraine: Faith in US Dwindles But We Won’t Fold
Ukrainians are ready for peace, but not at any price.
January 12, 2026
Shadow Tankers, Hard Power, and an Unready UK
Britain and many of its European allies are struggling to acknowledge that soft power is of little use in an increasingly hard power world.
January 9, 2026
Russian Propaganda Infects AI Chatbots
A Moscow-based global “news” network is leveraging Western artificial intelligence tools to devastating effect.
January 9, 2026
Putin Gets a Drenching in High Seas Drama
The fallout from the seizure of a Russian oil tanker could be extremely dangerous.
January 9, 2026
Vučić Hangs on and Hopes for Better Days
Serbia’s administration suffered severe setbacks in 2025. There’s no immediate prospect of any improvement.