From: the EU, NATO, Western Governments
To: Ukrainians and their leaders
Date: Summer 2022.
Dear Ukrainians,
We are so pleased that you were able to withstand the initial full-scale invasion from Russia. We are now excited by your heroism and want to be your friend. It makes us feel brave, glamorous, and important. We will come to Kyiv for photo ops — one in the street with a flak jacket, one in a bomb shelter, please — and we will pledge economic, diplomatic, and military support. But please, treat us like children, not adults.
The first problem is that we can only think about one thing at a time, and even that fairly briefly. Sooner or later, we will be bored by you and distracted by other things, likely the Middle East, but also China. The domestic calendar grabs our brainspace, too. Elections demand a domestic focus. Also Christmas. That’s a time for good news, not bad. Expect to exhaust our attention span.
Please also remember that our appetites for narrative are based on Hollywood, not history. We like to back winners. We will talk up your chances of victory because that makes the war easier to sell to our voters. Unfortunately, that will also make it harder to explain setbacks. And nobody likes a loser. Please, therefore, keep an eye on the plot and deliver a happy ending promptly. We will lose heart long before you do, and then we will blame you for not winning quickly enough.
We cannot help you nearly as much as we say. We will send you lots of equipment early on. Much of it will break because we won’t provide the spare parts in time, or at all. Much of it will be incompatible with other systems you are using. If you make specific requests, we will tell you not to be too demanding. If you complain, we will say you are being difficult. If you wear out the equipment in battle, we will grumble that you are not properly trained. If you shoot a lot of shells at the Russians, we will say that future shortages are your fault.
Our economies are, combined, thirty times bigger than Russia. But we will not break a sweat to help you win. We will stick rigidly to peacetime rules, on everything from munitions production to logistics. We will also impose easily-evaded sanctions on Russia that give us a few high-profile scalps but do not seriously hurt anyone (except, of course, you, as the victim of the Kremlin’s war machine).
We will put our domestic agendas ahead of your security. In the United States, Republicans in Congress will worry more about scoring points over the Biden Administration than in voting for the money and weapons that you need. Germany, having promised a game-changing Zeitenwende, will indeed deliver one, but on the negative side: a fiscal and political crisis that leaves Europe’s economic giant crippled and irrelevant. In short, we will do everything to help you so long as it comes at no serious political, economic, or mental cost.
We will apply a harsh double standard to you. Any shortcomings regarding corruption, media freedom, or institutional weaknesses will prompt knowing remarks. But don’t criticize us, for anything. It’s ungrateful.
We will, of course, claim credit for your victories. But your defeats are your fault.
Good luck, and let us know when you are next in Berlin, Brussels, London, or Washington. It will be great to catch up.
Best regards,
The West.
PS Please accept our deepest condolences on your current and future losses. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
