Remember those confident predictions by experts that Russia would take Kyiv in a week? Two years later, that Russia can barely hang on to Crimea.
Or that Europe would sacrifice Ukraine in return for cheap Russian energy? Tell that to Russian troops being blasted by British missiles and German tanks. Those fancy Western weapons would enable Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive to liberate Crimea and drive Putin’s legions back into Russia? A glance at a map will tell you how well that went.
So in that spirit, this writer offers of a few predictions of his own. It’s a win-win proposition: being right will be proof of sagacity and foresight. And being wrong can’t be any more wrong than most everyone else has been.
Prediction 1: The War Will Continue.
Putin has invested his political life — and possibly his physical wellbeing — on doing to Kyiv what the Red Army did to Berlin. Ukraine is tired and wants peace, but Ukrainians need something positive to show for their efforts, such as liberating Crimea, rather than dying simply to stave off a predatory megalomaniac in the Kremlin.
Barring some decisive battlefield event, it’s hard to imagine a negotiated peace that both sides will accept at this point. This war will eventually end, as all wars do. But not in 2024.
Prediction 2: The Stalemate Will Continue.
The more that Ukraine and Russia have striven for victory, the greater the stalemate. This is partly due to structural defects in both armies, such as poor tactics and lack of resources.
And because of the diffusion of technologies such as drones and GPS-guided munitions that make movement in the open risky and encourage troops to hunker down. Either way, the result is likely to be continued trench warfare and costly battles fought over little-known villages.
Prediction 3: There Will Be More Disappointing Wonder Weapons.
Can you guess what 2024’s Wonder Weapon of the Year will be? Previous contestants have included drones, HIMARS rockets, hypersonic missiles, and even old Leopard tanks and Bradley troop carriers. How well they have transformed the war can be seen in Prediction 2 (“stalemate”).
The frontrunner for this year is probably Artificial Intelligence, which promises to make smart bombs smarter and the targeting process for them faster. Judging by history, either Ukraine or Russia – more likely Ukraine, with Western help – will reap a brief AI advantage until the other side either copies the technology or learns to nullify it.
Prediction 4: The US and Europe Will Continue to Support Ukraine.
The rise of far-right parties in Europe, and the possible reelection of Donald Trump, can only worry Kyiv. But for democratic countries, betraying allies leaves a bad taste: witness how Chamberlain went down in history after Munich, or how Americans politics was roiled over who lost Nationalist China, South Vietnam and Afghanistan.
It’s easy for some right-wing leaders to denounce aiding Ukraine — as long they’re not the party in power. Stick them with the responsibility for handing Ukraine over to Putin, and they may sing a different tune.
Prediction 5: The World’s Attention Will Shift to Another Conflict.
This has already happened, as media coverage of the Gaza war has drowned out the once-gushing stream of news about Ukraine.
In turn, the focus on Gaza may shift to potential conflicts between Israel and Iran, Iran and America, and China, Taiwan and America. But it’s just as likely that an unexpected conflict will arise somewhere else to draw world attention.
Something will happen somewhere. You can bet money on that.
Michael Peck is a defense commentator. He can be found on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
