There is something in the air in Central Europe, and it smells like change. After the landslide victory of Hungary’s Péter Magyar in April, the Student List ousted Serbia’s long-time strongman Aleksandar Vučić with a convincing electoral win on October 25.
Even so, it will prove difficult to relaunch the country’s democratization process and navigate international waters after 12 years of illiberal, Kremlin-friendly Vučić rule.
As with Viktor Orbán in Hungary, there had been much discussion of a Belarus-style theft of the result using the security forces to beat down the winners. As with Orbán, this did not happen. Instead, at around 9:30 p.m. on election night, Vučić took the stage and conceded defeat. He had lost by 53% to 39%, and his opponents had secured a working parliamentary majority from the highest turnout for 34 years.
Across Serbia, the initial shock was followed by wild celebrations that continued late into the night, and the capital city of Belgrade suddenly became a scene of public joy not seen since the ousting of the president and war criminal Slobodan Milošević in 2000, after he attempted to steal an election.
Fireworks, tears of joy, music, and the traditional Serbian folk dance kolo accompanied the chanting of the Student List’s motto, studenti pobeđuju (students are winning) – a chant of resistance that had suddenly become a statement of fact.
An outsider may not comprehend the magnitude of what has happened. This was a real-life struggle between David and Goliath: the Student List, which emerged after the 2024 Novi Sad canopy collapse scandal that cost 16 lives, was up against Vučić, who has effectively captured the state, created his own institutional system, and spared no means over the past two years to discredit, dismantle, and intimidate members and supporters of the social movement.
For Vučić’s family and inner circle, some of them accused of corruption and ties to organized crime, losing the elections was a waking nightmare. Unable to run for a third presidential term, he had sought to remain in power, Russian-style: he would leave the presidential palace and serve as head of government, taking all his powers with him. With this, he could have secured his political survival and shown international observers that he had fulfilled the wishes of the demonstrators. He resigned as president in August, snap parliamentary elections were announced, and the plan was all set.
Much like his long-time political best friend in neighboring Hungary, Vučić flew too close to the sun, oversaw a corrupt regime, lived in his own echo chamber, and spectacularly miscalculated his final steps. He did not realize that Serbian society, regardless of the ideological differences within it, had lost patience with his system.
The Student List has managed not only to capture hearts but also to tap into 15 years of underlying and slowly brewing societal discontent. Even when faced with sonic weapons (sound cannons), imprisonment, thugs, and the regime’s infamous counter-protest camps known as Ćaciland, they persisted.
At the final rally leading up to the elections, the sense of victory was palpable on the streets of Belgrade. No one, however, could have predicted such a massive win or Vučić’s willingness to accept defeat.
And yet. While Serbia is still in a state of awe and euphoria, the Student List must soon face the music. In this case, this won’t be the popular turbofolk, a combination of Balkan folk melodies and electronic beats, but the difficult task of dismantling Vučić’s legacy, both in domestic and foreign affairs.
Student List is not composed of your typical politicians. Almost none of its members have ever held public office, and the majority are unknown to the public even if they are well-respected experts in their own fields. They come from various walks of life, including artists and singers. At this point, we can only guess who their candidate for prime minister will be – though it will likely be either Dejan Šoškić, an economist and former governor of the National Bank of Serbia, or the cardiologist and professor Ilija Srdanović. There is also uncertainty about who will fill key cabinet positions, including those responsible for internal affairs and foreign policy.
The future MPs’ lack of experience in running ministries, let alone a state, may prove challenging, especially if their aim is to undo Vučić’s decade-long rampage. As the Student List’s candidates were chosen on merit, it is open to question whether their undeniable credentials can translate into effective governance.
The government-to-be faces a myriad of internal challenges. The economy has been in shambles since the pandemic; corruption and organized crime run deep in institutions, political circles, and society alike, and Vučić loyalists dominate official and unofficial structures. Freeing up key institutions, including the courts and the media, will be challenging. There is a strong fear that Vučić, despite conceding defeat, may hinder institutional changes, since these are the structures that he has single-handedly controlled for so long. His party still has 105 seats in the 250-member parliament.
The first act will likely be to conduct a full-scale investigation into the Novi Sad canopy collapse and hold those responsible to account. This has not only been their leading promise but also a major symbolic gesture to society. In the first few months, when in-depth reforms and results are difficult to reach, symbolic steps, as in Hungary, are useful tools to keep up with high expectations.
In foreign affairs, domestic constraints will persist. Swift changes and 180-degree turns in foreign policy would hurt the students’ popularity. Its electorate includes die-hard Russia fans, pro-EU enthusiasts, and anti-NATO voters, to name just a few. The only thing that connects this base is the desire to see Vučić leave politics. Western powers may have to wait for significant change.
During the campaign, the students kept discussions about their vision for Serbia’s foreign policy short and also distanced themselves from ideological debates. Their sole focus was, and continues to be, on internal affairs. Their stance on foreign policy is reminiscent of the legacy of Vučić: balancing between great and regional powers while simultaneously seeking to please nationalists and EU supporters alike.
Serbia’s balancing act is the least of the students’ worries. They value Russia as an ally of Serbia while remaining firm in their support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Despite reports, since debunked, claiming that Serbia would stop supplying Ukraine with ammunition, no official statement was made about the means and extent of Serbia’s engagement, or lack thereof.
The new government’s foreign policy is unlikely to bring changes to regional dynamics or alliances. Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, will continue to be a red line, although a more open approach to the EU-led normalization talks is expected, without major concessions. Serbia will continue to pay particular attention to Serbs living in neighboring states but may not fulfill the political goals of their leaders, including those of Milorad Dodik, the former president of Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska.
Forging closer ties with NATO is also out of the question, as the government-to-be wishes to maintain Serbia’s longstanding military neutrality.
EU integration may be the odd one out. For many international observers, the lack of EU flags at student-led rallies sparked skepticism about the camp’s vision for Serbia’s future in the EU. Currently, the Serbian public would vote against the country’s accession to the EU if a referendum were held, polling indicates. The students promised that, when the time is right, citizens themselves would decide whether EU membership is for them.
The Student List’s priorities align with those set out by the EU. The rule of law, a free media, and the fight against corruption have long featured on the European Commission’s list of demands for progress on Serbia’s accession talks. Without explicitly stating that Serbia’s main goal is EU membership, the students are likely to deliver results helpful to the EU process.
The honeymoon period may be over sooner than the Student List and Serbian society think. The biggest question, similar to the one Hungary faced just a few months ago, is this: how to turn a change of government into a change of regime?
Ferenc Németh is a Senior research fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and a Ph.D. candidate at Corvinus University of Budapest. A former Fulbright visiting researcher at Georgetown University, he has previously conducted research in Toronto and Skopje, and interned at EULEX Kosovo. His areas of expertise include Central and Southeast Europe, EU enlargement, and regional security. Ferenc was a Denton Fellow at CEPA in 2024.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
