The Black Sea is now the world’s most dangerous body of water. Hundreds of attacks on merchant vessels have left littoral neighbors wondering how to respond to an issue fraught with risk. Turkish, Bulgarian, and Romanian defense ministers met in Sofia on October 28 to discuss possible approaches.
From January to September, more than 570 ships were attacked in the Black Sea, with at least 40 sailors killed, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The campaign has made the Black Sea the world’s most dangerous commercial shipping route, ahead of the Strait of Hormuz, where there have been 24 deaths since the start of the year.
The upsurge in violence has disrupted trade operations and increased security concerns, particularly for Turkey, which has critical energy assets in the basin and controls access to the sea under the Montreux Convention.
Yet it has also created fresh opportunities for Ankara to expand its evolving security role. Turkey has invested considerable diplomatic and military energy into stopping and limiting the spillover of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but with limited results. Given the battering Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has taken at the hands of Ukraine, Turkey now has perhaps the strongest naval force in the region. One-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s combat assets have been either destroyed or severely disabled.
Many of the merchant ships struck this year were smaller Russian vessels operating near the coasts, carrying day cargoes and other goods in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Some supplied Crimea.
Russia has sought to throttle trade through Ukrainian ports, which export almost all the country’s grain. But this year it extended these attacks to other vessels not engaged in the Ukraine trade, with some strikes close to or inside the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria. Both are NATO states, suggesting Moscow is looking to test the alliance through shadow warfare.
In response to the growing security risks and mounting damage to commercial shipping, Turkey has urged all parties to refrain from targeting civilian vessels and to exercise greater restraint in their military operations.
In line with its long-standing balancing policy, Ankara has prioritized diplomatic engagement and dialog to de-escalate the crisis, leveraging its channels of communication with both Kyiv and Moscow while deliberately avoiding confrontational rhetoric or overt alignment with either side.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan discussed the Black Sea with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a meeting in Istanbul on October 31 and told reporters he is looking to schedule talks with Vladimir Putin soon. He last met the Russian leader on September 1.
Turkey, which is also a member of NATO, has long supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, though it also has substantial economic interests in Russian energy, maritime trade, and regional shipping, and that has created competing priorities.
Ankara is committed to negotiating arrangements for commercial shipping and a grain corridor in the Black Sea. Bulgaria and Romania are also affected, with the latter worrying about the offshore Neptun Deep project, which is set to make it Europe’s largest gas producer.
The three states adopted a trilateral partnership in 2024 to tackle the threat posed by drifting sea mines in the wake of Russia’s war, with Turkey carrying out the majority of operations.
Turkey recognizes that preserving security in the Black Sea extends beyond diplomatic engagement and requires the establishment of more robust defense mechanisms. But NATO has yet to develop a comprehensive framework for organizing and strengthening security cooperation in the region.
While the alliance adopted a defense plan in 2023, it fell short of providing an operational architecture capable of addressing emerging threats, including drone warfare, missile strikes, and the protection of critical maritime infrastructure.
Growing volatility has prompted NATO to place increasing emphasis on the security of critical undersea infrastructure in the Black Sea. Turkey’s extensive institutional experience in this domain, combined with its advanced maritime and aerial surveillance capabilities and early warning systems, strengthens its position as a key contributor to the region’s security.
Its commitment to a partnership with Ukraine appears to be driven by its objective of establishing a joint deterrence framework, potentially incorporating Kyiv into a partnership with other littoral states.
Such an arrangement would likely place greater responsibility on Ukraine to exercise restraint in the use of drone attacks, while simultaneously signaling to Moscow that Black Sea states will not tolerate further attacks on commercial shipping.
If successful, such a measure would leave more space for diplomatic efforts and joint efforts to strengthen the defense of maritime infrastructure while establishing methods of detecting violations in the Black Sea.
Turkey understands it cannot single-handedly ensure the Black Sea region’s security, but it can bring littoral states together to shape the terms for allied support.
Fuad Shahbazov is a policy analyst covering regional security issues in the Eurasian region. He regularly provides his short geopolitical insights at @fuadshahbazov.
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