Understanding Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive.
In early June, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russian forces. The counteroffensive is still in its early days and the Ukrainians continue to make gradual, but steady tactical progress, liberating territories occupied by Russia in the east and south of the country. Kyiv is clear that its major battles to break the Russian defenses are still ahead. It remains unclear what effect, if any, recent developments including Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and the Wagner Group’s revolt against the Kremlin might have on Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities and Russia’s defensive strategy. How could this counteroffensive define the next phase of the war? What are the factors to consider when assessing the successes and shortcomings of the counteroffensive?