NATO leaders convene in Ankara this week amidst growing tensions. Russia’s war against Ukraine is intensifying – Ukraine has made incredible strides in innovation, especially in long-range drone strikes that are hitting energy and military targets deep in Russia. But Russia is also adapting despite a fragile economy and Putin’s growing political weakness – Russia is escalating its strikes on civilians, most recently striking Kyiv on the eve of the Summit, killing 15. Poland has been warning for months of a Russian military provocation on its territory, and last week the US warned of a possible Russian test of NATO resolve in the country. Of course, a Russian attack on NATO would be foolish – most notably for Russia, which would lose in a direct confrontation – but as Putin is weakened at home amidst growing discontent, he may see an opportunity to shore up support with a provocation.
Among European allies, anxieties are high as President Trump and others in the US administration have signaled that the US is taking names of who is meeting the defense spending commitments and who isn’t. The US has also recently launched a 6-month review of US force posture in Europe, which is making many in Europe extra nervous. NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte was in Washington last month to soothe US concerns – presenting a “Trump Trillion” of Allied spending to the President at a White House visit. But the US has been displeased with what the US President sees as a lack of Allies’ loyalty when it came to the US war on Iran earlier this year. Spain and the United Kingdom received the most criticism when both delayed or declined the US use of bases on their territories. A recent public spat between Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni and President Trump has also soured a once strong personal relationship between the two leaders. The US has, however, showered praise on Allies who are meeting defense spending thresholds – including Poland, the Nordics, Baltics and others in the Eastern Flank. That, and with the Iran ceasefire holding – the agreement was, after all, signed in Versailles with French President Macron hosting – together with coming on the heels of the America 250 celebrations, many hope the US President will see himself among friends at the Summit.
The politics and optics among leaders are sure to dominate the “hot takes” from the Summit, but the most important part of this Summit is the renewed focus on the private sector. NATO is putting heavy emphasis on the outcomes of this year’s defense industry forum, which for the first time is fully integrated into the official NATO Summit agenda and being led by the Secretary General. As I wrote in a previous edition of this newsletter, European defense is a hot market for private investors, many of whom are looking to deploy billions of dollars or euros into defense tech companies, scale-ups, and mass-production capabilities. Expect many announcements of joint ventures and partnerships to be announced between European and US firms, investment groups, and governments. And this is exactly where the Alliance should be because at the end of the day, political uncertainty and instability — on both sides of the Atlantic — is the new normal. Long gone are the days of powerful and long-standing centrist parties or coalitions. Non-traditional parties from the left and right are attracting more support, and their leaders’ views on defense spending and alliances vary widely. The only way to future-proof NATO, then, is to integrate the transatlantic defense industrial base — contracts and joint ventures can be harder to undo than political coalitions. NATO is a long way away from such integration, but this Summit will, hopefully, be a step in the right direction.
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