Russia’s shadow war against NATO allies has moved southwards, with three drone breaches of Romanian airspace in as many days, and a surge of other incursions in recent weeks.
Together with another attack on Poland, where a Russian cruise missile struck 100 km (62 miles) from the country’s eastern border on July 30, the incidents suggest that the Kremlin is once again turning up the dial to menace alliance members in the east.
Romania shot down the three suspected Russian drones on three consecutive days from July 24-26, a first for the NATO member. The Bucharest government’s response signaled a toughening of its reaction to airspace violation, and an unstated recognition that it is being tested by Moscow.
Romanian defense analyst Radu Tudor told this author Russia was “100%” to blame for the incursions. He suggested the firmer government response followed a Russian drone strike on a housing complex in Galați in May, when two people were wounded, and a fire started. “This was probably the trigger for the Romanian and NATO decision makers to engage and down those drones,” Tudor said.
The drones, including at least one Shahed-type used by Russian forces in its war against Ukraine, were shot down across the country; one came within 100 km of the capital.
Drone incursions have significantly intensified this year, with 18 unauthorized entries reported in 2026 alone up to July 26 according to the defense ministry, out of a total of 33 since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
President Nicusor Dan said it was “intolerable for the Russian Federation to continue violating Romania’s airspace.” He added: “Such actions are unacceptable and we are treating them with the utmost seriousness, alongside our allies.”
Last fall saw the most intensive attacks against NATO states, mainly in Northern and Central Europe. These eased somewhat after GRU efforts to shut down the Polish power grid over Christmas, but have never ended. While some incidents may be the result of Russian recklessness, many more are deliberate and follow a pattern, as with the Romanian incursions, last year’s undersea cable cuttings in the Baltic Sea, and drone-induced airport closures.
Romania, which lies on NATO’s eastern flank and on the shores of the Black Sea, shares a 640-km border with Ukraine and is vulnerable to spillover from the war as Russia targets Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
“Russia has been carrying out these hybrid actions for a very long time in Romania: disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, drone incursions, attacks on various ships in Romania’s Exclusive Economic Zone. They will certainly intensify,” said retired Romanian Gen. Dorin Toma, adding that Russia is trying to test “Romania’s limits.”
He said Romania and other European states must respond firmly to such provocations and destroy any unidentified aircraft that violate their airspace.
Last year, the Romanian parliament adopted a law allowing the country to shoot down drones breaching its airspace, but Bucharest had been timid in its response until last week. Earlier incursions were tracked but not engaged.
Last year, Romania and Poland, NATO and EU members which border Ukraine, acquired the MEROPS system, which fires short counter-drones to take down incoming unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), following repeated incursions along NATO’s eastern flank.
“The summer Romania shot back,” read one headline in Adevarul reflecting the tougher response.
Romania has already shut down a Russian consulate in Constanta over a previous incursion which injured two, and this week presented Russia’s ambassador to Bucharest with fragments of drones shot down in Romanian airspace. He was summoned to a meeting to protest the incursions, which he called “a set-up”. Romania also expelled a diplomat over the incident
“The Romanian side highlighted that the Russian Federation bears exclusive responsibility for all these grave incidents and for the deterioration of the regional security environment,” the Romanian foreign ministry said in a statement. Romania also recalled its ambassador to Russia for consultations in Bucharest.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called such incidents “a direct consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
Last month, a Ukrainian sea drone exploded in the Romanian port of Constanta. The Ukrainian military said it had veered off course as a result of Russian electronic warfare interference, a technique Russia has also been using to menace the Baltic states.
Alison Mutler is a British journalist who has been working in Romania for almost 35 years. She was the Associated Press bureau chief for 25 years and was part of a team that covered the Romanian revolution for the British TV channel ITN. For the past five years, she has worked for the Romanian-English website Universul.net and has been its director for the past three years.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
