Mainland China is more than 10 times bigger than Taiwan in economic terms and vastly superior in military ones. But it was unable to prevent 23 million citizens of the self-governing island democracy making up their own minds and electing Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as their president. That augurs well for the many more elections happening this year. Any outsider thinking of trying to undermine democracy would be wise to draw the conclusion that such efforts easily backfire.
The outcome also underlines the difference between democracy and dictatorship. Nobody knew who would win the Taiwanese elections. Indeed, the DPP did not win a majority in parliament; democracy is complicated. Everybody knows who will win Russia’s election this year. I doubt anybody reading this article even knows when the next “election” (not the right word) will be to mainland China’s phony legislature, the National People’s Congress (2027 or 2028). In any case, it doesn’t matter.
Countries without the stomach to defend Taiwan from aggression from the mainland authorities might have preferred the election of a leadership that would be willing to “normalize” relations with the communist party-state. But the Taiwanese people have shown that they want freedom and de facto statehood. They are prepared to face down a barrage of threats from Beijing, just as they withstood a blizzard of mischief during the election campaign. (The authorities say they are investigating hundreds of cases involving disinformation and bribery.)
The question now is how the rest of the world will react. The State Department congratulated the winner by name – something that Germany and France, like the European Commission, lacked the courage to do. From Lithuania, the parliamentarian Matas Maldeikis aims to be among the first foreign politicians to congratulate President Lai in person, narrowly behind Kei Furuya of Japan.
That leaves plenty of room for other countries to act. Celebrating and recognizing Taiwan’s democracy not only lifts spirits there; it also sends important signals to Washington, DC. As American concerns over Indo-Pacific security grow, it is all the more important for European countries to show their transatlantic protectors that they are not security free-riders.
Recent events in the Red Sea underline this point urgently. It will be increasingly hard to explain to American voters that their tax dollars go to protecting freedom of navigation in faraway trade routes whose beneficiaries mostly can be found elsewhere. Too many European countries prefer posturing on the sidelines to sharing the risk and cost involved in protecting their own freedom and prosperity.
Most European countries lack the naval and military capability needed to strike the Houthi rebels in response to their drone and missile attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. But any country, no matter how small, can do its bit in breaking mainland China’s artificial taboo on diplomatic and political contact with Taiwan.
True, such moves reliably prompt a splenetic reaction from the authorities in Beijing. China removed Lithuania from its foreign trade register as a punishment for the opening of a “Taiwanese” office in Vilnius. For a while, this “no such country” status blocked Lithuanian exports. But the more countries that do this, the harder it is for the Chinese party-state to punish them.
A bigger problem is the inability of the Taiwanese authorities to turn their friends’ symbolic gambits into practical reality. Lithuania’s effort in support of Taiwan sent chocolate exports there soaring, but proved disappointing, at least initially, in terms of trade and inward investment. Other countries noticed and flinched. The new Taiwanese authorities have abundant opportunities to make their economic and diplomatic efforts overlap more closely.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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