The anniversary is a good moment to take stock of gains and losses — not only for the Ukrainian people, but for democracies across the globe, because Ukraine has shown that the world’s moral compass is broken.
The story is simple: the greedy and the cowardly cannot agree with the aggressive (Russia) on how to rein in the defiant (Ukraine).
At least this is how it appears from the freezing homes in Ukraine, where nearly 10 million people are enduring one of the harshest winters under a coordinated Russian onslaught on energy and heating infrastructure.
After four years, Ukrainians are still fighting for survival and have not yet received sufficient air defense systems and ammunition from “supportive” countries to reliably protect civilians and critical infrastructure, let alone organize decisive counteroffensives.
After long and intense debates, the coalition of the willing (led by the UK and France) is unlikely to send troops even after a ceasefire. The war has not been fully “owned” by Europeans, and they remain determined to ensure the war does not “spread” even though, as CEPA has detailed, Russia has greatly expanded its attacks against them. Any pause, which is now being discussed by the US, Ukraine, and Russia, would spell even greater danger for the continent than a continuation of fighting. Russia does not intend to stop.
Europe, which has been disarming and rewarding itself with peace dividends since the 1990s, is still unwilling to act. Of course, it’s holiday from history has meant years of sun and sangria, but there must surely come a moment when its politicians and people understand the mortal risk they now face?
Ukraine, meanwhile, is denied access to Russia’s frozen assets because countries like Belgium worry about the possible legal fallout. Meanwhile, talks about a special tribunal are an academic endeavor rather than a policy plan.
The performative pretense of peace talks — at which Russia makes outlandish demands for territorial concessions while spreading the lie that it is Kyiv standing in the way of peace — is further proof of the global moral crisis.
This can also be seen in its multilateral organizations. The United Nations provides a platform for Russian propaganda and, as some Western capitals call on Ukraine to capitulate, NATO’s clear message is that it is too frightened to take on Moscow.
Russia has also managed to hijack supposedly nonpolitical organizations. While Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych was banned from competing at the Winter Olympics for having pictures of sportsmen killed by Russia on his helmet, the Paralympic Games will include Russian athletes, including some who fought in Ukraine.
Ukrainians continue to repeat what was clear from the start: to end the war, the appeasement of Russia must end, and the equipment of Ukraine with medium- and long-range capabilities must be accelerated so that Russia understands the concept of retaliation. Likewise, the shadow fleet must be shut down to stop the flow of cash to Moscow’s war machine.
The Sanctioning Russia Act and SHADOW Fleet Sanctions Act are waiting in the US Congress and could become a great contribution to the latest European sanctions package. However, it is not words that make the difference, but the physical implementation of any curbs on Russian activity.
Ukraine has already sanctioned three shadow fleet vessels with explosives, but the Europeans could not even hold onto an arrested ship. Ports assisting the illicit flow of oil must also be sanctioned.
Kyiv’s integration into the European Union remains a vague prospect, and the hope of NATO membership is still a meaningless sentence on a piece of paper.
It is increasingly clear that, while Russia is not winning in Ukraine, it is succeeding in its bigger goal of destroying the unity of democratic, value-based societies. When values are not practiced or protected, they are dead.
A Ukrainian victory on land, which could have been achieved in 2022 or 2023, is now framed as Russia’s strategic neutralization through a series of functional defeats in different domains. Russia, for its part, has managed to break out of its short-lived diplomatic isolation and has proposed a multitrillion-dollar partnership proposal for the US.
The early hope of Ukrainians that they could restore justice has been drowned as the gap with their allies has widened dramatically, in terms of worldview, strategy, threat perception, and urgency.
In some respects, we have come a long way. At the very beginning, it was considered poor form to call the war Russia’s rather than Putin’s; the genocide was often framed as a “misunderstanding”; and there were high hopes that everything could eventually return to normal, and even that reconciliation might be possible.
Ukraine has received close to $450bn from partners in all sorts of aid, but if Russia had been defeated in 2022 — as it could have been with the right support — these costs and the number of lost human lives would have been much smaller. Ukraine does not want this war; it wants peace. But not peace at any price.
Ukrainians are very grateful for the support already provided, but it is a two-way street. Europe is helping itself by helping Ukraine. As some Europeans have the honesty to say, Ukrainian blood is buying the continent time to rearm and prepare for what’s coming next.
It is especially clear to those of us still fortunate enough to travel between the nightly air raids and freezing temperatures of wartime Ukraine, and the rich, peaceful cities of Europe, that the Ukrainian people’s bloody down payment is giving Europeans a peaceful life right now.
Ukraine understands this is how the world works. That is exactly why it must have a fair deal.
Elena Davlikanova is a Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Her work is focused on Ukraine and Russia’s domestic issues and their effects on global peace. She is an experienced researcher who, in 2022, conducted the studies ‘The Work of the Ukrainian Parliament in Wartime’ and ‘The War of Narratives: The Image of Ukraine in Media.’
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Ukraine 2036
How Today’s Investments Will Shape Tomorrow’s Security
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
