The US-Israeli war against Iran, launched in the early hours of February 28, is already having consequences across the world, not least for Ukraine in its continuing fight for survival against Russia.
Some of the effects are grim and will potentially make the country harder to defend, but this new conflict also presents Ukraine with opportunities. It now boasts the most battle-tested air defense systems in the world, especially when it comes to defending against long-range drones.
That explains why the US and at least one Gulf state have approached Kyiv with requests for aid. President Zelenskyy said on March 5 that he had agreed a request from Washington for assistance — including personnel — to counter Shahed drones and their variants.
“Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people,” he said. Russia’s air attacks on Ukraine are relentless and stopping them is a key government objective. The scale of the bombardment is significant — on the night of March 5 alone, the barrage totaled 181 drones and four missiles, numbers that are now typical. At least 170 of the drones were brought down by the defenders.
The primary implications for Ukraine of the Middle East conflict are twofold.
First, demand for Patriot interceptors will increase as the Gulf states seek to replenish their arsenals. Over 800 of the missiles were reportedly used in just three days of fighting, Zelenskyy said on March 5, more than Ukraine has received in total from its Western suppliers during four years of war.
Kyiv’s existing delivery contracts will likely continue unless US decision-makers intervene directly to reallocate production slots. Even so, there will be fierce competition for limited production slots for Patriot PAC-3 MSE and PAC-2 GEM-T interceptors.
Both Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are expanding their production lines. Lockheed Martin, in particular, is attempting to surge capacity, with plans to increase PAC-3 MSE production from roughly 600 to 2,000 interceptors per year by 2030. Raytheon is expanding PAC-2 GEM-T production from about 300 units annually to around 420 by 2027, supported by a new licensed production facility in Schrobenhausen, operated by MBDA Germany.
Even so, unless the supply increase outpaces the surge in demand, acquiring Patriot interceptors will become harder, including for Ukraine. With several European, Asian, and Middle Eastern customers, as well as the United States itself, fighting for limited production slots, it is unlikely that interceptor lead times will decrease in the near term. At present, these are estimated at 1.5 to 2.5 years.
This is a big issue for Kyiv. While its anti-drone defenses — including interceptor drones, gun lines, detection networks, and command and control systems — are world-class, its anti-ballistic and cruise missile defenses are more dependent on outside suppliers. Without Patriot and the European-made IRIS-T, Ukraine will find it hard to defend against attacks on key targets.
There is an opportunity here for Ukraine. The Middle East war is exposing a capability gap in the arsenals of the Gulf states in the area of long-range drone defense. Reporting suggests that they had already begun trying to address this in the years before the war, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s experience against Russia and noticing Iran’s diverse long-range drone arsenal. Yet procurement cycles proved too slow to close the capability gap in time.
The well-funded and concerned Gulf states will seek to quickly address this issue. Ukrainian companies are clearly well-positioned to offer battle-tested counter-drone technologies. Zelenskyy has seen an opportunity; on March 3, he suggested an exchange of PAC-3 interceptors and drone interceptors between the Arab states and Ukraine. Ukraine has shown that the interceptors work well, with its military saying they accounted for 70% of destroyed drones in and around Kyiv in February.
The Ukrainian leader is getting ahead of the game on behalf of his country’s businesses. European missile defense startups, as well as established European and American primes, will be seeking to offer their own drone defense systems to well-funded and anxious Middle Eastern buyers.
Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP) and a Non-Resident Fellow with CEPA’s Transatlantic Defense and Security program. His research focuses on missile technology, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence. His PhD project examines the implications of conventional long-range strike weapons on strategic stability. His research and commentary has been published in the Journal of Strategic Studies, European Security, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Post, among others.
This is an edited version of an article that first appeared on Substack (Missile Matters — with Fabian Hoffmann).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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