“Three decades of free elections, and the party rooted in the Communist era still runs the country,” the celebrated poet Ana Blandiana, who defied Romania’s Communist regime, remarked in an interview after three decades of multi-party rule.
Her words captured the nation’s ongoing struggle with political stagnation. In 2024, a year packed with presidential, parliamentary, local, and European elections, Romanian voters face a familiar political landscape dominated by established interests. Despite the high stakes, the prospect of meaningful change remains frustratingly out of reach.
In the upcoming presidential (November 24 and December 8) and parliamentary elections (December 1), Romanians will choose leaders who will shape the country’s economic future and navigate complex geopolitical challenges, including Romania’s role in influencing European Union (EU) policies on critical issues such as energy security, defense, and the next Commission’s push for strategic autonomy.
With NATO’s eastern flank under pressure due to Russia’s war in Ukraine — and deep uncertainty looming over an upcoming Trump presidency — Romania’s significance is undeniable. Yet, it is hard to see new faces among the current slate of candidates.
A generally good economic performance eases the pressure to act. While inflation is relatively high, GDP growth has continued an upward trend despite Russia’s war against neighboring Ukraine, unemployment is falling, and national debt is relatively low.
But serious underlying issues continue to dog the country. Despite years of efforts, Romania only secured partial Schengen access in March. It continues to languish at the bottom of the EU’s Digital Economy and Society Index, revealing profound deficits in digital infrastructure and skills. EU funds absorption is low, falling short of the EU average, and corruption is still common — Romania lags at the bottom of the EU table with Bulgaria and Hungary.
The youth unemployment rate is at 22.2%, and average wages are among the lowest in the EU. The healthcare sector fares no better, with spending levels near the bottom in Europe, directly affecting service quality and access. Public trust in democratic institutions has plummeted, with only 19.4% of Romanians expressing confidence in the government. These failings are exacerbated by a significant brain drain: between 2007 and 2015, over 3.4 million Romanians left the country, which represents the second-highest emigration growth rate after Syria.
The brief tenure of Dacian Cioloș, a former European Commissioner turned technocratic reformer, in 2015 highlighted Romania’s entrenched political barriers. Despite initial optimism, his administration faced relentless opposition from established parties, stalling meaningful change. The Union Save Romania (USR), founded in 2016 as a reformist force, has also struggled — plagued by internal divisions and resistance from established networks that protect a culture of patronage. A 2019 report revealed that political appointments in public administration remained prevalent, undermining institutional efficiency and public trust.
Leading the presidential polls at 25.3%, Marcel Ciolacu represents the Social Democratic Party, Romania’s dominant political force. Despite branding the Social Democrats as a center-left party focused on social welfare and economic stability, its roots lie in the Communist party, and it has suffered a long history of corruption scandals.
George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, is in second place, polling at 19.1% and capitalizing on anti-EU and nationalist rhetoric. His party gained significant traction by exploiting dissatisfaction with the way the government handled the COVID-19 pandemic and growing Euroscepticism, propelling it to strong performances in the 2024 European and local elections.
Simion’s presidency could erode democratic institutions, destabilize the region, and push Romania down a path reminiscent of Hungary’s illiberal drift, jeopardizing the country’s pro-European commitments and isolating it within the EU. He opposes Ukraine aid while denying he is pro-Russian and seeks to redraw Romania’s post-war borders.
Nicolae Ciucă is the National Liberal Party’s candidate. Despite its pro-European, center-right branding, many voters struggle to see a difference from the Social Democrats, alienating many. This shift became evident in 2021 when the two parties formed a coalition that blurred ideological lines. The National Liberals and Social Democrats also ran as a coalition in June’s European Parliament elections.
Once a rising star in the Social Democratic Party, Mircea Geoană, now running as an independent, has built an impressive diplomatic résumé, including his tenure as NATO’s Deputy Secretary General. While his supporters tout his strategic vision and international experience as assets to enhance Romania’s global influence, his campaign has struggled to generate the momentum he anticipated.
A former journalist turned mayor, Elena Lasconi, polling at 14.3%, the Union Save Romania candidate, is not a credible anti-system contender. Despite being framed as an outsider, her limited political experience and lack of a substantial political track record undermine her appeal.
It remains uncertain who will join Ciolacu in the second round of presidential polling. If Simion advances, it will simplify the choice for voters determined to oppose the far right. Yet, regardless, the options are leaving many voters disillusioned. A 2023 poll showed that 71% of Romanians believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, citing inflation, low incomes, and corruption as top concerns, while trust in political parties (9%), the presidency (15%), and parliament (12%) is among the lowest.
The same dynamics are at play in the upcoming parliamentary elections that will take place on December 1. This election is unlikely to deliver the sweeping reforms many Romanians desperately seek, such as rooting out entrenched corruption, improving healthcare infrastructure, and creating economic opportunities to curb the brain drain.
There may have been a time when Romania could look inward, and the effects elsewhere were limited. But the war on its eastern border means that’s no longer true. Without bold leadership, the many challenges facing the nation, at home and abroad, will go unaddressed.
Blandiana was right: true transformation is still out of reach. The hope lies in the rise of grassroots movements and a new political generation willing to challenge an entrenched status quo.
Anda Bologa is an independent expert on Central European foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and AI and digital policy. She was a Denton Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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