Georgia was horrified when news broke in November that Russian forces had opened fire on a group of Christian worshippers visiting an occupied church, leaving 58-year-old Tamaz Ginturi dead from multiple gunshot wounds.
A companion, who survived the attack, was beaten and detained.
The two men had recorded a video before the shooting began, which was later published as evidence of Russia’s trigger-happy approach. “This is how Russians behave. They closed the church and removed the cross,” Ginturi can be heard saying shortly before he was shot. “If they sealed it, I have to open it.”
In a country that endured an invasion by Russia in 2008, and the continuing occupation of two of its regions, the cold-blooded murder of someone trying to enter a place of worship cut deep.
But not in Russia. The Kremlin advised Georgia to formally accept the occupation line as a state border and agree not to use force against the de-facto regimes under Moscow’s control — a move that would amount to recognition.
Ginturi was not the first Georgian citizen to die or suffer torture and illegal detention at the hands of the Russians. A number of people have been beaten, physically mistreated, and shot.
The continuing abuse of Georgians takes on a greater significance since the current government in Tbilisi has been notably restrained in its dealings with the Kremlin. Despite the occupier’s behavior, Georgian authorities remain determined to play it nice with Moscow.
Tbilisi refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, abstained from criticizing the Kremlin, and turned a blind eye to the movement of sanctioned goods across its territory. The governing party calls this a “policy of pragmatism.”
Russia lauded Georgia for its response, and the state Duma particularly praised the administration for finding “the courage not to succumb to anti-Russian hysteria.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a press conference that Georgia’s position “commands respect.”
However, warm words is about all that Georgia has received. There is no sign that Russia will withdraw from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and indeed there has been talk of annexation.
The Kremlin has built military bases, deployed troops, and constructed military infrastructure deep inside Georgia. As Ukrainian strikes have forced Moscow to seek safer harbors in the east of the Black Sea, Russia has declared its intent to open a naval base in occupied Abkhazia.
Human rights in Georgia’s occupied regions and adjacent areas are dire. Ethnic Georgians, who have been stripped of their legal status, are routinely mistreated and discriminated against. Teaching in the Georgian language has been banned.
Moscow has also reinforced the dividing line between Tbilisi-controlled territory and the occupied regions with fences and barbed wire, creating security and humanitarian concerns. Hundreds of Georgian citizens have been abducted and jailed for “illegal crossings” of the makeshift border to tend their crops or visit relatives, churches, and cemeteries.
Ukraine hardly needs telling that Russia is a dangerous aggressor and that efforts to mollify the Kremlin is a fool’s game. But a lesson might be learned by those in the West and elsewhere who seek a peace settlement agreed on Russia’s terms.
Allowing Moscow to consolidate its grip on Georgia’s breakaway regions has only left the country more vulnerable to Russian pressure, less secure within its borders, and more exposed to incursions. Concessions have not changed this reality.
Everyone involved must be clear-eyed about the possible consequences. If Russia is permitted to take and hold parts of Ukraine, there should be no doubt the Kremlin will follow the Georgia playbook.
Moscow would use the occupied regions as political and military staging grounds to weaken and subdue the rest of Ukraine. As in Georgia, Russia’s actions would serve its broader goal of dominating and disrupting the country as a whole.
A pause in fighting would allow the Kremlin to reconstitute its strength, creating a larger threat to NATO. Russia would also have shown the West’s adversaries that it can be defeated through persistence, setting a dangerous precedent.
Russia routinely violates agreements it enters into; any deal will result in highly predictable outcomes to the detriment of Western interests.
The Kremlin strategy is on open display in Georgia. It would be reckless to allow Moscow to repeat it in Ukraine.
Irina Arabidze is a CEPA 2022 James S. Denton Fellow and a visiting lecturer at the Caucasus University in Tbilisi. A Fulbright scholarship recipient, Irina holds a master’s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and a graduate degree in International Relations and European Studies from the Central European University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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