Outside Russia’s London embassy this week, I joined protestors celebrating the imminent departure of the defense attaché, Colonel Maxim Elovik. The British government expelled him for “malign activity,” and removed diplomatic privileges from two Russian properties. One is a “trade” mission on a hill in north London (mainly used for collecting electronic intelligence). The other is a lavish mansion in the countryside (mainly used for entertaining and then blackmailing potential intelligence sources). It is amazing that both facilities have been allowed to continue operating for so long.
The belated move seems to be a response to a series of Russian intelligence operations in Britain, including an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned business. Other countries are complaining too. Estonia summoned Russia’s top diplomat in Tallinn to protest the jamming of GPS signals which have led to Finnair stopping its service to the country’s second city, Tartu. Following a cyber-attack, Germany’s foreign ministry has recalled its ambassador from Moscow for “consultations” (suggested topic: how did we get our Russia policy so wrong?). Poland said it had been targeted by a Russian hacking attack. The Czechs protested after uncovering a Russian-run online media outlet that tried to bribe European politicians.
But these reactions are just scratching the surface of the problem. Russia’s GRU — military intelligence — is waging war on European countries. It uses not only its own officers but also proxies: gangsters, far-right extremists, and assorted riff-raff. Attacks include assassination, arson, sabotage, and also other covert operations — such as using graffiti to inflame tensions.
Yet NATO’s collective defense budget is three-and-a-half times more than Russia and China combined. How is it that Russia, a country with an Italy-sized economy, is able to attack the entire West with impunity?
The answer is that Russia does not take us seriously. Decision-makers in Moscow are not scared of our reaction. It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, but the size of the fight in the dog. Russia is willing to kill people, destroy property, and then lie about it. And we are not.
The usual Western response to these attacks is imposing more diplomatic and financial sanctions. We pretend that these work. We know that they don’t. Russia dodges sanctions with the help of countries such as China and India. It can survive fine without a military attaché to Britain.
We can boost our information operations: supporting independent media outlets or broadcasters such as the BBC World Service or Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. These might have worked a few years ago. They do not work in Russia as it is now, gripped by nationalist hysteria.
We could be tougher. We could bribe Russian gangsters to murder senior members of the Putin regime. We could finance Russian far-right extremists to wreak havoc. But we don’t. One reason is that these measures might be ineffective. Another is that it would drag down our behavior to our enemies’ level.
But the real reason is fear of escalation. Western public opinion dislikes anything that looks like warmongering or brinkmanship. Voters also dislike any foreign policy that comes with costs. Already any American visiting Russia is at risk of state-sanctioned kidnap. Crank up the pressure on the Kremlin, and any European visiting will also be a potential target. Far worse than hostages is the thought that confronting Russia risks a nuclear war.
An adage attributed to Vladimir Lenin advises, “Probe with bayonets: if you find mush, push. If you find steel, you withdraw.” Putin is pushing and sees no reason to stop. Restoring deterrence will be far costlier and riskier than maintaining it would have been.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End: Deterring Russia’s Shadow War
Either Europe will continue allowing Russia’s shadow war to set the terms of escalation, or it will act now to prevent a larger war.
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
