After two years of political stalemate, and a series of caretaker governments appointed by Kremlin-friendly president Rumen Radev, many were relieved in June when Citizens for European Development (GERB) and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) formed a government in Sofia and agreed to rotate the premier’s role.
But it was always feared and is now clear, that former prime minister Boyko Borisov, the long-time leader of GERB, a former communist-era Interior Ministry official and the country’s dominant 21st-century politician, is the weak link in the seven-month-old coalition. Its pledges to curb Russian influence and complete long-awaited anti-corruption reforms are being delayed. Some opponents think that’s because he and his allies fear prosecution.
The coherence of the coalition may be judged from the unofficial alliance between Borisov and Delyan Peevski, parliamentary leader of the opposition Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), the Turkish minority party, who is under Magnitsky sanctions for “regularly engaging in corruption, using influence peddling and bribes to protect himself from public scrutiny and exert control over key institutions.” He denies the allegations.
This relationship threatens to destabilize the fragile government construct. Together, GERB and DPS hold 105 seats in Parliament (compared to WCC-DB’s 63) and can obstruct any reform that might threaten the interests of their leaders. The former premier and co-chair of WCC-DB Kiril Petkov warned that his coalition would not agree to serve as a fig leaf for behind-the-scenes agreements that block the government agenda, negotiated between his party and GERB.
For example, the new government had promised to reform the intelligence services because of the allegations of footdragging or even obstruction in investigations related to national and NATO security. This commitment has faced strong opposition from the pro-Russian President Radev, who currently appoints the heads of the services. WCC-DB has proposed changes in the law to give the power of appointment to parliament, but GERB and DPS have so far refused to support the reform.
In another show of force in November during parliamentary debates on a no-confidence vote, GERB and DPS deputies, rather than defend the government against pro-Russian parties, staged a walk-out, and the vote was postponed due to a lack of quorum. Although they ultimately voted to defeat the no-confidence motion, the two parties showed that they could pull the rug out from under WCC-DB at any time. Just as they did in 2022, when, contrary to its pro-Western rhetoric, GERB and DPS joined the pro-Kremlin factions in a vote of no-confidence and ousted Petkov’s pro-Western government.
Borisov has a long history, having been premier for 10 of the 14 years since 2010. He presided over governments during an era when corruption flourished, making the country a “mafia state”, where an oligarchy with its roots in the communist-era secret police was — in the eyes of the public — able to illegally enrich itself without consequence. Eventually, public disgust erupted into large-scale street protests in 2020. Borisov was arrested in 2022 as part of an investigation into the misuse of European Union (EU) funds but was freed without charge, a familiar outcome in many corruption investigations.
While he came to power promising to fight graft, during his rule, Bulgaria was regularly ranked as both the poorest and, in 2022, the most corrupt country in the EU apart from Hungary, and on a par with some African states.
It’s a bit surprising therefore to see Borisov now embarked on a campaign to depict himself as the most ardent supporter of Euro-Atlantic values.
For example, in a Kremlin-pleasing move, Borissov built the TurkStream pipeline, which helped Russia bypass Ukraine, cost Bulgarian taxpayers €1.5bn ($1.61bn), and increased Moscow’s energy influence in Europe.
More concerning for Western officials is Borisov aligning himself again with his previous company of oligarchs and kleptocrats.
A media baron until he sold his holdings in 2021, Peevski is alleged to have provided officials with positive coverage in exchange for protection from prosecution. His outsized influence over Bulgarian politics, and his influence on Borisov, triggered massive protests in 2020-21.
During Borisov’s time as prime minister, GERB and its DPS allies were accused of turning Bulgaria into a textbook example of state capture. The two parties, together with Putin’s proxies, blocked reform of the security services and judicial system.
The Prosecutor’s office and the National Security Service (DANS) allegedly failed to investigate or covered up cases of alleged Russian sabotage. These included the 2015 poisoning of Bulgarian arms producer Emilian Gebrev with a substance resembling novichok — a favorite of Russian state assassins — and a series of explosions at his company’s facilities.
Investigative journalist Christo Grozev, who Russia put on its wanted list, told the Bulgarian parliament that the authorities had failed to probe seriously these explosions and did not share information with Czech officials investigating similar incidents in their country.
Ex-defense minister Boyko Noev has also accused the state prosecution service of a cover-up. As he told the RFE/RL’s Bulgarian Service in 2023: “The prosecution then and now, and the executive authorities during the government of Boyko Borisov, didn’t want the truth to come out. There are many reasons, including Russia’s influence over the [Bulgarian] special services and the prosecution.”
“Anytime it’s linked to something with Russia, Bulgarian intelligence is very impotent. It is not willing to counter Russian intelligence and hybrid warfare,” former Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev told the New York Times in 2019.
An investigation found Russian meddling is now threatening the new government’s efforts to increase production of Soviet-era weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Bulgaria estimates its arms industry supplies 40% of Ukraine’s small arms and shell production, including hard-to-buy items like Soviet-caliber tank shells.
Gebrev, whose company Emco has led the way in supplying Kyiv, has called on Bulgarian and NATO leaders to act against Russian operatives who continue to target his factories and depots, with acts including sabotage.
The EU and US have plenty of political and financial mechanisms, including new sanctions, to support democracy and the rule of law in Bulgaria. No amount of anti-Russian rhetoric can substitute for concrete action to implement the necessary reforms in the justice system and the security services, unblocking investigations into Russian sabotage and holding corrupt officials to account.
Dessie Zagorcheva holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Columbia University. She specializes in international security with a focus on Russia and Eastern Europe. Her current research examines NATO’s response to Russian sharp power.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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