At first glance, little seems to be happening in sleepy towns and villages of rural Hungary; in reality, these often small communities will decide the outcome of the elections.
The Hungarian countryside feels like a clash of parallel universes as Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, and Péter Magyar, his challenger, offer starkly different visions of the future. The prime minister builds his campaign around Ukraine, a purportedly intrusive European Union (EU), and the fear of war. His challenger, by contrast, focuses on the economy, accountability, and the promise of change — offering not just a critique, but the hope of change after 16 years of strongman rule.
The countryside is Orbán’s heartland, and is probably key to the outcome. The prime minister’s strength has always been rooted in more socially conservative smaller towns and villages, where pro-government messaging dominates daily life. His popularity there remains strong as supporters point to his charisma, his defiance of Brussels, and his defense of Hungarian Christian-conservative values and national sovereignty — especially in relation to Ukraine. In many ways, the worldview promoted by Orbán aligns closely with that of rural voters.
His campaign has been heavily reliant on fearmongering. Orbán’s defeat, according to the government and his most loyal supporters, would mean illegal migration, Hungarian men and even children being drawn into the war in Ukraine with Brussels’ approval (as indicated by a controversial, AI-made video), and the collapse of everything his government has managed to build.
Magyar has worked hard to make inroads in the less urban areas by employing a very different message. He brings energy and accessibility, promising to restore Hungary’s standing as a reliable partner in the EU and NATO. He has left abstract ideological battles to what he calls the “old opposition” — parties that have either withdrawn from the current race or are unlikely to cross the parliamentary threshold. His focus is simple but practical: the economy.
This is the critical issue. Since 2020, Hungary has seen little economic progress. Corruption — often linked to high-level politicians and people closely affiliated with Orbán, like his childhood friend Lőrinc Mészáros, a gasfitter-turned-billionaire — is a widespread complaint. Even as much EU funding has been withheld, the country has continued its tumble to the bottom of the bloc’s corruption rankings. Over nearly two decades, those close to power have prospered while many Hungarians feel left behind. Living standards are among the lowest in the EU.
This sense of stagnation is especially visible in the countryside. There are EU-funded projects widely seen as symbols of waste and corruption: a canopy walkway without trees and a lookout barely 40 centimeters (1.5 inches) high, overgrown by bushes and trees. These examples have come to represent a broader feeling of neglect, mismanagement, and corruption.
Magyar’s message directly addresses this frustration. He promises economic growth and accountability. Yet the situation is not straightforward: while many people want higher incomes and better living conditions, Orbán’s campaign will still resonate.
Billboards featuring Ukrainian President Zelenskyy are now common in the Hungarian landscape, reinforcing Orbán’s emphasis on foreign policy, war, and conflict. A common joke claims that it is Zelenskyy, not Magyar, who is Orbán’s real challenger. Orbán presents himself as a global political actor with direct access to figures like Trump (underlined by US Vice President JD Vance’s April 7-8 visit), Putin, and Netanyahu, and capable of defending Hungary’s sovereignty against outside pressure. Magyar, meanwhile, speaks about economic recovery and ending what he describes as 16 years of state capture.
Ideology may favor Orbán, but Magyar’s strength is precisely the absence of ideological focus.
Firstly, he has tried to defuse government charges that he will be the standard-bearer of an ultra-liberal government certain to offend socially conservative voters.
Magyar has therefore signaled a cautious tone on Ukraine. He has emphasized the importance of national and regional stability and the need to end hostilities, while clearly acknowledging that Russia is the aggressor. He was notably absent during the June gay Pride march in Budapest.
That is an acknowledgement also that many voters have applauded Orbán’s narrative on Ukraine, something that earlier opposition politicians with their pro-Ukraine and broadly Western European political sentiments were unable to do.
Secondly, he has steered clear of a sweeping new vision; he concentrates on tangible issues that resonate with everyday issues.
He has also worked extremely hard. Magyar regularly tours towns and villages to engage directly with voters. Here is a man, the presentation suggests, who is accessible and happy to listen. That willingness to hear and recognize popular anxieties by appearing in person — something his predecessors did not do — has very clearly paid dividends. He has managed to achieve something no opposition figure has in the past 16 years: he has captured many hearts and minds in the countryside.
The contrast in campaign styles is striking. Magyar’s openness makes him visible and, at times, vulnerable to (verbal and physical) confrontation. Orbán, in contrast, has traditionally relied on controlled, invitation-only events in stadiums, with supporters often transported by buses that were financed through EU-led projects. However, sensing a tighter race, he has begun adopting a more direct approach, touring the country in a similar fashion but with seemingly less success (and more heckling).
In the end, the emerging lesson is simple: elections, at least in Hungary, are not decided by abstract liberal values and grand ideas.
Previous opposition campaigns focused too heavily on ideas that resonated in Budapest but failed to connect with rural voters, who make up a much larger share of the population. Magyar appears to have understood this shift. Instead of speaking to elites, he speaks to ordinary people — and in this election, that may make all the difference.
Ferenc Németh is a Ph.D. candidate at Corvinus University of Budapest and a Fulbright visiting researcher at Georgetown University. He has previously conducted research in Toronto and Skopje, worked as a research fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, and interned at EULEX Kosovo. His areas of expertise include Central and Southeast Europe, EU enlargement, and regional security. Ferenc was a Denton Fellow at CEPA in 2024.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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