Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will soon enter its third year. Through their courage and resilience, the Ukrainian people are preventing Putin from achieving his imperial goals but at an increasingly high cost.
As I write in Foreign Affairs, US President-elect Trump is right to want peace in Ukraine — no one wants that more than Ukrainians. But any deal based on Ukrainian capitulation will not produce a sustainable peace; rather, it will directly empower what the Economist calls the “quartet of chaos” — the coalition of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran — that is intent on undermining US global credibility and leadership. And Russia, for one, has shown no interest in good faith negotiations as it ratchets up its sabotage operations in Europe and the United States — a full-fledged shadow war that NATO has few tools to deter.
But as the rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria shows, authoritarian states and their machinery of terror are very good at hiding — though not eradicating — internal instability. And there is a great deal of instability across the authoritarian space. Russia’s amped-up war economy is showing signs of strain as access to credit dries up, just as the Chinese Communist Party faces another difficult year with slowing growth ahead of a looming trade war with the United States. Following Assad’s ousting and Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran is in an increasingly weak position. New leadership in the US and Europe would be wise not to miss this opportunity to exploit growing vulnerabilities inside and among these states by all means necessary.
Amid this growing geopolitical uncertainty, CEPA will continue to drive forward innovative ideas to shape the future of foreign policy and national security. As we mark our 20th anniversary, I am reminded that when CEPA was founded two decades ago with a mission focused on European security, it was not a popular proposition. In the post-9/11 world, the international community was focused on the Global War on Terror, and Europe was seen as stable and predictable — and often taken for granted. In hindsight — as mass-casualty war once again rages on the European continent and Europe faces an economic competitiveness crisis — the animating idea behind our founding seems prescient.
Since then, CEPA has been ahead of the curve in identifying future challenges for the transatlantic alliance, from our early work on countering Russian disinformation, to our focus on regional security environments from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and now with our investment to animate the policy debate on defense technologies and tech policy more broadly, we have been at the cutting edge of pushing forward new ideas and engaging a new generation of voices across the Atlantic. Fresh ideas and fresh voices will continue to drive our work in the year ahead.
Through our presence in Washington, London, and Brussels, CEPA is advancing our founding mission into the future by becoming a true transatlantic institution, building our networks across political spectrums, and doubling down on our core areas of defense, resilience, and tech policy.
Early in the new year, we will be sharing more exciting and impactful announcements on our work to ensure Ukraine’s security, deter Russia’s shadow war, and identify how the US and Europe can work together to invest in innovation to outcompete China in the tech race. 2025 promises to be a year of shifting geopolitics with unpredictable security challenges, and CEPA will be at the forefront, providing timely expert analysis, concrete policy solutions, and curated content to explain an increasingly complex world.
As I look back at our work this year, I wanted to share a selection of agenda-setting ideas and analysis from CEPA’s experts that I found particularly thought-provoking, and I hope you will too.
Dr. Alina Polyakova
President & CEO
Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
Year in Review: 2024
Up North: Confronting Arctic Insecurity
Geopolitics in the Arctic are changing fast.
CEPA’s recent report, Up North: Confronting Arctic Insecurity, outlines why the Arctic has reemerged as a critical region for global security and stability and how strategic competition — and climate change — are rapidly changing the circumpolar security landscape.
- Why NATO Needs Ukraine by Alina Polyakova and James Goldgeier
- Beyond 75: Securing NATO’s Tomorrow by CEPA’s NATO experts
Containing Russia, Securing Europe
How the West contains Russia and bolsters European security.
The flagship report, Containing Russia, Securing Europe, argues that to restore stability, the United States and its allies must focus their efforts on containment, through a strategy designed to defeat Moscow’s ability to wage war now, and to disrupt its ability to even contemplate war in the future.
- Resilience, Reconstruction, Recovery: The Path Ahead for Ukraine by Sam Greene, et al.
- Europe 2029: Eight Policy Priorities for the New European Commission by Marija Golubeva, Volodymyr Dubovyk, Jessica Berlin, and Sam Greene
Transatlantic Trade and Technology: Partners or Rivals?
Transatlantic elections could stall the TTC’s progress.
The in-depth report Transatlantic Trade and Technology: Partners or Rivals? highlights the challenges and opportunities Washington and Brussels face as they chart a new course for cooperation on pressing technology and trade policy issues.
- A European Tech Agenda 2.0 by Alina Polyakova, Ronan Murphy, and Bill Echikson Curbing Code?
- US Mulls New AI Export Controls by Matthew Eitel
- Boosting Europe’s Digital Leaders: A New Momentum for the D9+ by Lucinda Creighton and Clara Riedenstein
Ukrainian Lessons for the Age of Automated Warfare
The West must adapt to meet the challenge.
A series of articles on Ukrainian Lessons for the Age of Automated Warfare raises the alarm that the US and its NATO allies have been slow in adopting autonomous weapon systems and are failing to build the mass needed to extend their military capabilities and make their conventional deterrence more credible.
- Inside Ukraine’s Drone High Command by Mitzi Perdue
- Ukrainian Lessons: Civilian Tech Transforms the Battlefield by Henrik Larsen
CEPA Forum 2024
Leadership in Action
At CEPA Forum 2024, key policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic gathered for a series of convenings focused on the intersection of technology and security, as well as making the case for why Ukraine’s victory is essential for the future of the transatlantic alliance — and the rest of the world.
CEPA’s inaugural Leadership Awards Dinner and Tech Conference brought together decision-makers and global thought leaders from North America and Europe to honor those who have made remarkable contributions towards a robust and democratic transatlantic alliance, including Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Olena Zelenska, First Lady of Ukraine; Vladimir Kara-Murza, Putilizer Prize-winning journalist and Russian freedom fighter; and The Hon. Michael Turner, US Representative (OH-10); The Hon. Michael McCaul, US Representative (TX-10); The Hon. Michael Rogers, US Representative (AL-03).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Ukraine 2036
How Today’s Investments Will Shape Tomorrow’s Security
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
