Andriy Yermak, as Head of the President’s Office, wielded unprecedented influence, which he channeled into ensuring the government functioned. Without him, communication between the president and Parliament has broken down, and Ukraine urgently needs someone to take on his role.
In March, the International Monetary Fund warned that its $8.1 billion aid package for Ukraine might be in jeopardy if lawmakers refused to vote on legislation it required, including unpopular tax reforms. Financial support from the World Bank and the EU is also in question due to Parliament’s inability to pass necessary laws, or even to put them to a vote.
Yuliia Zabelina, a Ukrainian political analyst, says the causes of the crisis include a lack of communication between the executive and legislative branches, tensions over anti-corruption investigations into lawmakers, and the absence of a mediator to negotiate between the Cabinet of Ministers and Parliament.
Last year’s corruption scandal, involving kickbacks and other corruption in the energy industry, saw the ouster of people at the heart of Zelensky’s government and led parliamentarians to signal a change in their relationship with the president and his inner circle. They would no longer be used as an instrument for rubber-stamping new laws.
After almost a month of negotiations, involving several mediators, some laws required by international donors were passed on April 8. The job of negotiating on behalf of the government, previously done by Yermak, was taken on by three people now vying for power: Yulia Svyrydenko, the new prime minister, Kyrylo Budanov, new head of the President’s Office, and David Arakhamia, leader of the President’s party in Parliament.
This time, the votes were secured primarily by Arakhamia and his deputy Andriy Motovilovets. And one of the key conditions lawmakers were trading for their support was an assurance that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau would not start investigations into members of Parliament, ZN, UA, a Ukrainian news website reported.
Svyrydenko, who as prime minister works closely with the president’s office, was unable to mitigate the crisis because communication with parliamentarians had broken down, the Kyiv Independent reported.
And the lack of trust includes members of the president’s Servant of the People Party, as well as the opposition.
“I wouldn’t say the Cabinet of Ministers put forward any compelling or substantial arguments in its dialogue with Parliament,” Servant of the People lawmaker Maxim Buzhansky wrote in a post on Telegram after the crucial vote. “I’m not entirely sure it has grasped what needs to be done, let alone how to go about it.”
The incident, in which Buzhansky said lawmakers voted with their factions and “in the interests of the state,” underlined the crisis of communication between the executive branch and Parliament, as well as Svyrydenko’s lack of political weight.
Kyrylo Budanov, the new head of the President’s Office, has the energy to drive change and substantial experience as former head of Ukraine’s Intelligence Service, but so far appears to lack understanding of political intricacies unrelated to security. He was unable to persuade the group in Parliament, suggesting he still has a way to go in adjusting to civilian politics.
The crisis was deepened by Zelensky, who, instead of looking for a middle ground, threatened Parliament, saying its members “will have to work,” or he would review mobilization legislation so they can go to the front.
Given that the Prime Minister is unpopular with lawmakers, and the new head of Zelensky’s office has yet to build the influence in Parliament his predecessor enjoyed, the President might have had more success using his political influence to try to persuade lawmakers rather than threaten them.
The Parliamentary crisis has been deepened by the government’s widely criticized economic policies, including populist programs like “cashback for fuel” and “a thousand from the government,” which chaotically distributed money to citizens.
Additionally, a report published on April 6 suggested slow progress on the reforms necessary for Ukraine’s European integration, further undermining trust in the cabinet.
Populist laws, the lack of reforms required by international organizations, and threats to send lawmakers to the frontlines will not help fix the parliamentary crisis. And the fact that members of the president’s own party refuse to vote for the government’s laws signals the issue is structural.
After the loss of Yermak as a mediator between the President’s Office and Parliament, his function either has to be distributed among several people or a ‘new Yermak’ has to be created.
Regardless of which option the government chooses, the President’s Office cannot treat Parliament as it did before, and two-way communication must be re-established.
Unless a middle ground is found between the President, Cabinet of Ministers, and Parliament, every major decision will result in gridlock that will paralyze the country.
Mykyta (Nikita) Vorobiov is a political analyst focusing on Russian and Eastern European politics and security. He is currently completing an MSc in Russian and Eastern European Studies at the University of Oxford and holds a BA in Ethics and Politics from Bard College Berlin, where he researched Russian visual propaganda. For the last four years, Nikita has been publishing articles on politics and security for CEPA, VoxEurop, JURIST, and others.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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