Of the more than 12,000 Iranian sites targeted by the US and Israel, the strikes against an obscure Caspian Sea naval base seemed at first sight one of the oddest.
Israel said it hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command post, a shipyard, and port infrastructure at Bandar Anzali on March 18.
The operation marked the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian Sea. While the port is not the primary base of the Caspian Flotilla, also known as the Northern Fleet, it was likely a dispersal base for military units.
The aim? To strike at the Iranian-Russian military trade across the Caspian Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. The route’s importance has been growing since Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine four years ago, and now involves the shipment of key military items, including drones based on the Shahed design.
The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) first flowed northward to Russia, but the Kremlin built its own plant, improved the product, called it the Geran-2, and — according to some evidence — shipped them back to Iran for use in the war. Western intelligence services have also said that Russia is tutoring the Tehran regime on drone tactics.
It is a worrying moment for countries in the region, signaling that the war may yet spread. And if it does, that would prove a further headache for Europe, which now relies much more on energy from the South Caucasus.
In recent years, the deepening Moscow-Tehran axis has heightened concerns among other littoral states, namely Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, that a gradual shift is underway in the balance of power in the Caspian Sea in favor of the Moscow-Tehran axis.
These developments are especially relevant for Azerbaijan, which holds strategically important energy assets in the Caspian Sea, ensuring the flow of oil and gas to Europe through the $35bn Southern Gas Corridor. For three decades, offshore oil fields operated by the BP consortium have anchored this supply.
Azerbaijan has also emerged as a key logistics hub via the Middle Corridor, a multimodal trade route spanning Eurasia, supported by multi‑billion‑dollar investments in maritime and railway infrastructure. Against this backdrop, the country has cautiously observed the escalating confrontation among the United States, Israel, and Iran over the past three years. It has refrained from taking sides, though it is no secret that it is Israel’s biggest oil supplier, and that the two countries have a strategic military relationship.
It was Iran that fired the first shot with a March 5 drone strike on the passenger terminal of the Nakhchivan exclave’s airport. President Ilham Aliyev issued harsh statements toward Iran in the aftermath and referenced the estimated 15–20 million ethnic Azeris in Iran’s northern regions.
It’s hard to see how any Caspian nation would benefit from a widening of hostilities. Azerbaijan has significantly deepened cooperation with Central Asian nations in recent years, particularly in trade and logistics, while actively promoting the Caspian basin as a “safe haven for transit” to attract greater European investment.
This strategy underscores Baku’s ambition to position itself as a reliable partner for regional connectivity and commerce. Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have voiced concerns with the recent escalation, even as Iran has demanded they respond with a “firm stance.” Neither wants to publicly criticize the US and Israel, however.
Yet Baku understands that further devastating attacks might provoke Tehran to launch strikes on key energy infrastructure in the region, likely those linked to Western companies. That puts Azerbaijani oil and gas fields at risk.
And that could threaten a wider war. In such circumstances, Baku would likely turn to its closest ally, Turkey, given that its direct military options against Iran are limited. The military partnership between the two states was formalized in the 2021 Shusha Declaration, which stipulates that if either country’s independence or territorial integrity is threatened by a third party, both countries will provide necessary military support.
A prolonged war with Iran, involving spillover risks, could also jeopardize the US-led Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a core part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process formalized in the Washington Declaration in August. As the route crosses Armenia’s Syunik province and the Nakhchivan exclave, both adjacent to Iran, significant security challenges are certain to arise.
Here is what we know: Moscow and Tehran will very probably continue to use the Caspian route for arms transfers, and that Israel may therefore resort to additional strikes.
There is plenty of room for escalation and no room for winners.
Fuad Shahbazov is a policy analyst covering regional security issues in the Eurasian region. He regularly provides his short geopolitical insights at @fuadshahbazov.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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