Since the 2020 presidential election, Lukashenka has accelerated his authoritarian crackdown and thousands of Belarusians who spoke out against the government have been physically beaten and wrongfully imprisoned. Opposition leaders and other members of the intelligentsia have been given lengthy prison sentences and some threatened with execution.
The death of Vadzim Khrasko on January 9, after prison authorities refused him treatment for pneumonia, was a reminder of the casual brutality of the Belarusian authorities. Khrasko, an IT specialist, had been jailed for three years for making donations to opposition groups.
All levels of government are involved in the effort to keep Lukashenka in power, and surveillance has increased. After the violent reprisals that followed the 2020 protests, citizens are concerned for their safety and wary of publicly demonstrating, fearing persecution. Many will opt out of voting altogether.
There won’t be much choice in any case. Last year, the Belarusian Supreme Court shut down the Belarusian Popular Front Party, while the Green Party, Republican Party, Social Democratic Party of People’s Accord, and Belarusian Social Democratic Party have all been banned. The United Civil Party was likewise closed by the Supreme Court.
Belarusian authorities also control the media, so news outlets will continue to promote the Lukashenka regime and undermine any remaining opposition candidates.
Frozen out of the political process, opponents have sought other ways to take on the regime. Following Lukashenka’s support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, for example, several military officers resigned in protest.
Train tracks have been sabotaged to stop Russia from transporting equipment from Belarus to the frontline and Belarusians have taken up arms to helping defend Ukraine. Belarusians assisted in the liberation of Bucha in the early stages of the war, while others are fighting on the Eastern front and have participated in cross-border raids into Russia’s Belgorod border region.
Their aim, they say, is to help Ukraine in the hope that Belarus will also help defend itself and resist Russia, and to become a free and democratic country, rather than a vassal state dependent on its neighbor for fuel, money, and protection. Many critics now say that Belarus is little more than a province of Putin’s Russia, citing examples like Lukashenka’s agreement to base Russian military units engaged in aggression against Ukraine.
Opposition members in exile have continued their fight against the regime, pressing Western governments to extend sanctions and highlighting the brutality of Lukashenka’s rule.
In the face of violence and repression, 2024 will be crucial for the opposition as they seek ways to undermine Lukashenka’s dominance. They are committed to a prosperous, free nation and are constantly aware of the risks they take in opposing his leadership.
Little will change as a result of the sham elections in February. Depressingly, its sole useful purpose will be to underline the regime’s dictatorial behavior and set the stage for another rigged vote in 2025, when Lukashenka, now 69, will seek to extend his 30-year rule.
It is a sad truth that his questionable health is probably the greatest hope for his departure.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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