Sam Greene
Hello and welcome to the Center for European Policy Analysis. My name is Sam Greene. I’m Director of the Democratic Resilience Program here at CEPA, and it’s my distinct pleasure this morning to welcome Oleksiy Goncharenko to CEPA and to Washington, Ukrainian parliamentarian, activist and, I dare say, diplomat prior to his election to the Rada in 2014, served in local government in Odessa is a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and is on something of a grand tour of, of political and academic and other offices here on the east coast of, of the US have been very active in a strong voice in support of human rights in in Crimea, temporarily occupied in in Belarus and Georgia, as well as for Russian accountability for crimes of war, and aggression. So a rich agenda for our conversation. Today. Alexei, welcome. Welcome to CEPA and to Washington. And thank you for joining us.

Oleksiy Goncharenko
Thank you very much. It’s a big honor for me to be in CEPA. And you’re doing an absolutely great job. I want to thank you for this. And thank you for your invitation.

Sam Greene
Well, thank you for your support. I know this has been said a lot over the past 11 or 12 months or so. But it does feel to me, like at least like we’re reaching something of a of a critical juncture in Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s illegal and brutal invasion. Ukraine has demonstrated obviously, the resilience of its military of its state and certainly of Ukrainian society, and the transatlantic community has responded maybe a little bit later than we would have wanted, but responded on the less with significant and in many respects, increasing support. And yet, as the full scale invasion takes over into its second year, now feels like the moment when Western leaders really need to decide how far they are willing to go in helping Ukraine achieve its victory, as you’ve been speaking with your colleagues here in the US, your colleagues in the Parliamentary Assembly at the Council of Europe and around the world. What’s your sense of the state of Western resolve right now?

Oleksiy Goncharenko
Yeah, thank you very much again, that is a question number one, not only for Ukraine, but I think that this is a historical moment. And the result of the war in Ukraine will define how the history will continue during next decades. And that is a really critical moment for for for the whole free world and for everybody. Yes, we feel that Russia, there are a lot of evidences of this that they are preparing some new offensive. In reality, they already started it. We have a lot of pressure from Russian army in the east of Ukraine, especially area of Bakhmut, Soledar, Ugledar, Maryinka. And it’s very possible that in nearest days, so weeks, there will be more high scale invasion and high scale activation and escalation from Russia. It is very possible. And definitely we see now the decisions of the West and Free World to supply more weaponry to Ukraine. Finally, there was made a decision on Patriots recently, then on tanks, the new modern Western battle tanks, which is very important. But what should I tell you just speaking about tanks we should understand is like just like, several hours ago coming to you I read that possibly Spain will give six tanks. Before that it was said that Canada will give to Ukraine four tanks. I mean, like four is better than zero and six also. But we should remember that when the war started, Russia had, according to different estimations, from 11 to 20,000, tanks, 11 to 20,000 tanks, even we’re speaking about 31, 6, 14, 12, yeah, altogether maybe that will be 100 but even 100 tanks, even very good tanks, they will not change the situation. That is not something it is not game changer, which we need to understand this. And the question is, so what the question what I have today is why Patriots right just now, because it was clear from the summer that Putin will weaponize winter then they will attack power grid and why Patriots were not provided at that moment when they could save Ukrainian power grid. My I am sitting here with you, my my wife and two my kids in Odessa. They don’t have electricity over this moment, exactly this. There’s like millions of Ukrainians. Why it was not made earlier why tanks just now and in such quantities? And I have a feeling that the big question and the big problem today is that like the West, the Free World, united in support of Ukraine, that was a big job done by current American administration to unite Free World that should something be respected. That was not easy task, they did it. But they are united in the will that Ukraine should win. But at the same time, many of people in the West are afraid of Russia to lose. That’s my personal feeling speaking with them and how it works in their head, I can’t understand really, because it’s clear that victory of one side will mean the defeat of other, but not this time, not for many people. The reason like like, like Kissinger said in his article like, yeah, Russia is evil, but this is eternal part of equilibrium. Russia, it means like Russia was Russia is and Russia will be. Why? Who said this? This is the last colonial empire in Europe. Yeah I am not saying that Russia and Russians will disappear. But I mean, the Russian Empire because this is Russian Empire today again, or like it was 200 years ago, then Soviet Union, this Russian Federation, but it’s the same empire. Why should it continue its existence? We don’t have Ottoman Empire anymore. We don’t have Austro Hungarian empire, French Empire, British Empire, they disappeared, and, and still, the life continues and better than before. And Russian Empire should disappear one day. So that’s my personal feeling that without this answer, we’re all the time like chasing after Putin. We like also very popular phrase here that everything is given but too slow and too late, like all the time have this moment.

Sam Greene
So there has been as you mentioned, the breakthrough on the on the main battle tanks. There has been a breakthrough although again later than everybody would have hoped on on patriots. Macron said the other day that, by definition, nothing is ruled out in response to a question about fighter jets. Is there, is it your sense that this is still caught in the same inertia? Or is there an opportunity to, to shift the conversation in Western capitals and to get them to see the world as you’ve just described it to me?

Oleksiy Goncharenko
You see why I’m so like you you feel probably my frustration. Yeah. And why? Because like, the first month when Russia invaded Ukraine, I was in Kyiv, we voted for martial law. And then there was a option either to leave Kyiv or if to stay in Kyiv. And I decided not to leave Kyiv, not to come to my Odessa. It was more safe, but I decided to stay in Kyiv and staying in Kyiv I joined territorial defense, because that was no sense. I mean, I should take arms in my hands. Then when Russians were kicked off from Kyiv, I decided that I’m better with my self stick than with my Kalashnikov. So I came back to my parliamentarian duties, but I saw everything I’m why I’m telling you this to you because I like I saw everything on the ground with the battle for Kyiv. And I can tell you that if Ukrainian army would have in February, March, what we received in May, June, we would finish the war in April, because we didn’t have with what to placate Russians, we didn’t have howitzers, HIMARSes. The weaponry which were provided at that moment Stingers, Javelins, NLAWs that was the weaponry for guerrilla fighting, really, the estimation of the West was that Kyiv would fail. And that will be a guerrilla fighting. That was a mistake. And then when it was September, and when it was like summer, September, when Ukraine was asking “give us armor,” we need the tanks that time because you saw how effective was our offensive near Kharkiv, very big success near Kherson, but it could be much bigger success if we would have armor because you can’t attack without armor. You can’t. But we did it. But I mean, like brilliant work of Ukrainian army with what they had. But it was not enough. And again, it was clear, then it was clear when Putin started mobilization that there was time several months before newly conscripted people will arrive. And that was again window of opportunity. And again, in some sense we lost it. So the problem is that when I hear that it is we don’t want escalation. But in reality that is exactly what we are receiving. We are receiving escalation because like next step, okay, but it’s already not enough to give us HIMARSes. We need more when it is needed to give more, but again, the first time from Putin, then we are chasing after. So, I mean, what I hoped I want us to make lessons from this and to make decision today to provide Ukraine with heavy drones, fighter jets, more armor, first of all, long range missiles, two HIMARSes ATACMS. And with this, we will finish everything till summer. If that will if this will not be made, my prediction is that in summer we can be with you in the same studio, speaking about that Putin mobilized more 200,000 people, found some more weaponry in Iran, Africa, northern Korea, restarted some new facts- some factories, war factories in in Russia, and everything will continue. And I don’t know for how long. And we are taking for granted that Ukrainian human resources is unlimited. But it’s not. We are having big big losses. And if we will continue this way. I just don’t want to, you know, to push and exaggerate. But the question is, many people already said Ukraine already won. We also sure in our victory. But still it’s not the fact. It has not, it has not yet happened. And if we will continue to chase after there are many risks.

Sam Greene
So shifting gears a little bit. You’ve made this argument, right. You’re making this argument. I know two of your colleagues on on Capitol Hill, rhetorically, at least obviously, we see the hesitancy in policy from the administration and from Capitol Hill and from from some of the European allies. We hear, rhetorically, commitment to the ideals and idea of of Ukrainian victory, certainly from the Biden administration, and from Democrats and Republicans leadership in the Senate and the House. There is a new dynamic since the Republicans have taken over in in the house of increasing calls for oversight, particularly of how this administration is spending money and in Ukraine and and of the ways in which aid is being is being used. At the same time, we’ve seen a lot of news and headlines coming out of of Ukraine on the anti corruption drive. And progress in in that direction. We’ve seen in particular, I think, a very important role being played by Ukrainian civil society, in the Ukrainian media in setting and really driving the anti corruption agenda in Ukraine. Can you help us in our audiences, particularly in the policy world here understand what’s going on with anti corruption in Ukraine, how we should be interpreting that and responding that and supporting that?

Oleksiy Goncharenko
Absolutely. I think that’s what’s happening. Now in Ukraine, it’s a good news for everybody for Ukraine for our partners. It shows which what is important that these investigations are carried out by Ukrainian law enforcement bodies. It’s not FBI or any other organization, but it’s Ukrainian law enforcement bodies. The reason, the background for this, are the investigations of Ukrainian journalist, not a Western journalist, but Ukrainian journalist. And as you said, this is the demand of Ukrainian society to give reaction on these investigations. And we see that this demand is heard by the government, the president, and there is political will, to make these investigations and to fight corruption. That is very important, because you know, those here in the West, who are against supporting of Ukraine, like I don’t know, Tucker Carlson, who is speaking about some conspiracy theories, by the way, I asked him to, to invite me to his program for publicly in my Twitter. I said just invite me because it’s not a it’s not a journalism, it’s not a freedom of speech if you are not given the second view on the situation, and you are not. Unfortunately, for the moment, my request, has no answer. But these people will say, yeah, you see that we told you that money that we’re sending to Ukraine, and they will be stealing it and that’s all. And I just want to read, just again to say to everybody who are now watching us, there is no one fact that any piece of American weaponry, which was sent to Ukraine was found anywhere in the world, except the frontline in Ukraine. That is very important, because all of this thinking about some smuggling where it comes that just sorry, blah, blah, blah, because there is no one fact, but definitely we need to be very, very cautious. Because people are people and people are different, and Ukrainian institutions are still not the best. Ukrainian civil society is one of the best in the world. Ukrainian institutions, still they’re not. So that’s why we need the support. Also, you haven’t mentioned it but also to Kyiv came group of inspectors from DOD, from Department of State, from USAID, it is very good and it is very good and I hope these dynamics will continue. We will push it from our side and that, again shows that democracy matters, democracy matters.

Sam Greene
And Tucker Carlson’s lost his seat was gained. So I’m very glad that you’re, that you’re here. I would like to ask one last question, though, before, before we have to go, which is to look forward, right, to a time in which Ukraine has won this war, and and will be looking to situate itself in a new post war order. From your perspective, what would a robust security arrangement for Ukraine look like? What should Western leaders be thinking about when they’re thinking not just about tomorrow, but about the future?

Oleksiy Goncharenko
Great question. But let us start with about almost tomorrow. Glad to speak about June, NATO Summit in Vilnius. I think Ukraine should become a member of NATO. I don’t think that we can build European security without this. And I can I mean, no, it’s not my estimation. That is the fact I think today, why I’m saying this, because Europe and the West tried to build European security on the conception on the concept of Ukraine being a buffer between Russia and Europe. And we just need to acknowledge it just didn’t work. That is the fact what we know we have a big Europe, in the middle of Europe, the big wars are in the middle of Europe. So that if that’s what already had happened. So now we need to make a lesson. So the harder answer is to have Ukraine inside NATO. And this, see, I was disappointed that in Madrid summit where I was present in June, that was historical summit, because it was a moment of unification of Free World, for the first time Prime Minister of Japan came, Australia, South Korea, but it was really historical one. There was there was a spirit of of like, you know, the new breadth of the Free World. I it was not enough for me, I was the only Ukrainian MP being there. And and that was very powerful. But for Ukrainian cause, it was a lost possibility. Because there was no there was no decisions about Ukraine. I hope that Vilnus especially because this is Lithuania, one of our biggest supporters should be should go another way. And we should make at least very decisive step to membership of Ukraine in NATO. And in general, I think that all these wars showed that you can’t in reality, dictatorships, they can’t coexist with democracies. And somewhere in future that either the whole planet will be democratic or it will be it will go another way, very bad way. I hope it will be democratic. I believe in this. And for this we should unite Free World and expand it. Not to be afraid of this. But to move ahead. Do not tolerate evil. That is Ukrainian lesson. Many people, I chair a caucus with Democratic Belarusian Ukrainian parliament, and many my colleagues when I started, it was built long before the war, the invasion, they were telling me what for you’re doing this. I mean, like Lukashenka, like that’s their internal case. We have some trade with them, don’t care. And the same was about Iran. Iran is too far away from us. And our lesson Ukrainian lesson, when you tolerate evil it will it comes to your home, like Belarus became closed down for a check on Ukraine. Now, Iranian drones, Shaheds, are flying from Belarus and falling on our heads. Where is Ukraine? Where is Belarus? Where is Ukraine? Where is northern Korea, where they now taking this old Soviet weaponry to kill Ukrainians. So we can’t tolerate evil. If I…no difference in Belarus, in Russia, in northern Korea, in Iran, that is the lesson and Ukraine in this new world, I believe will be like, like, unit military unit of the Free World because now we have the strongest army after the United States of America, the strongest after US in the Free World, not just because weaponry, people, but because our people have battle experience. And being such a power, that will be also a lot of responsibility on Ukraine, to be a frontline unit, to be a front runner for Free World, to be a real icon of democracy. And that is a lot of responsibility. That is not easy burden. But I think we don’t have that is historically already happened. And now we need to be strong enough to carry this burden.

Sam Greene
Well, that’s a clear vision and a clear agenda for Ukraine, for NATO and for the rest of the world. I thank you for that. Thank you. This is a conversation we can and should keep having. But it is all the time that we do have for today. So I’d like to thank you very much for being with us. Thank you are to all of our viewers and listeners out there in cyberspace. Be safe. Be well, thank you very good luck. God bless America.