Latest from Central Europe |
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From Strategic Partnership to Velvet Divorce? New Challenges in the U.S.-Poland Agenda
Published: 15 June 2009
Olaf Osica at the Natolin European Centre in Warsaw examines the state of U.S.-Poland relations under the Obama administration. “After years of political honeymoon, the relationship between Poland and the United States has entered a political void.” Whereas the United States must balance its short-term commitments to Central Europe with long-term security objectives, “sooner or later the diplomatic dance around Missile Defense will finish.” When this occurs, Osica sees an opportunity for Poland to “act as a critical U.S. partner in Europe and beyond.”
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Central Europe's Emerging Far-Right
Published: 12 June 2009
In the wake of this week’s pivotal European Parliamentary elections, CEPA analysts Eva M. Blaszczynski and Peter B. Doran assess the rise of Far-Right and extremist parties in Central Europe. According to Blaszczynski and Doran, the success of non-mainstream groups in the EU Parliamentary vote reflects “mounting public skepticism in post-Communist Europe about the ability of national governments and EU institutions to adequately address the economic crisis.”
The authors identify five countries (Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania) where extremist platforms “are gathering momentum and could gain traction in future national elections.” In addition to renewed leadership from the EU, Blaszczynski and Doran argue that the United States has a role to play in checking the spread of extremist politics in Central Europe.
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No Time to Waste: How Early Euro Adoption Could Prevent Further Shocks in Central Europe
Published: 02 June 2009
Ondřej Schneider from Germany’s CESifo Group assesses the role that currency valuations played in aggravating Central Europe’s financial turmoil. Since "no Central European country can hope to satisfy official criteria for Euro-zone membership," Schneider writes, the EU should suspend the ERM II transition period for aspirant countries in order to guarantee financial stability. In its place, he recommends creating a “‘partnership process,’ whereby new member states would use the Euro currency and participate in Euro-based financial markets while waiting 3-4 years for the ability to vote on the ECB council.”.
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Brief Analysis No. 103: End of an Era? Poland's Shipyards Hit the Auction Block
Published: 02 June 2009
CEPA Research Assistant Matthew Czekaj considers the prospects for Poland’s beleaguered shipbuilding industry. Now that the “EU Competition Commission has forced the Polish government to sell off state-owned shipyards in Szczecin and Gdynia,” writes Czekaj, “tens of thousands of workers ponder a future without shipbuilding in the birthplace of Solidarity.”
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Brief Analysis No. 101: The Czech Republic's Caretaker Government
Published: 15 May 2009
In the second installment of a two-part series, CEPA Associate Scholar Jan Jireš offers an incisive analysis of the new Czech caretaker government.“By quickly agreeing to an apolitical placeholder,” writes Jireš, “ODS and ČSSD party bosses deprived President Václav Klaus of an opportunity to expand his informal power base. [Prime Minster] Fischer is a tightly-constrained, public-minded technocrat; what comes after him is a coin-toss.” For now, the planned U.S. ABM radar installation is politically dead, since “no party will risk supporting this project before the early elections.”
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Brief Analysis No. 102: Albania's NATO Membership
Published: 15 May 2009
Analyst Andrew MacDowall writes on the political and security implications of Albania’s new membership in NATO. “Beyond the symbolism, Albania will strengthen NATO’s security presence in an unstable region and allow the alliance to ring-fence the troublesome Balkan core.” While the costs of membership for Albania may be high, MacDowall identifies a number of potential advantages for Europe and the United States, including potential improvements in energy security and efforts to limit human-trafficking and drug-smuggling in the region.
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The Central European Auto Sector: In for a Bumpy Ride
Published: 01 May 2009
CEPA Economic Analyst Eva Blaszczynski inaugurates a new series of “Industry Briefs” covering Central Europe’s most important commercial sectors. The first report examines the automotive industry. As they adapt to the challenges of the global economic downturn, CE-based auto producers face tough choices for sustaining their competitive edge. “Though the short-term outlook is bleak,” writes Blaszczynski, “automakers remain optimistic about their long-term presence in Central Europe.”
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What's Next for Czech Foreign Policy
Published: 01 May 2009
In the first of a two-part series, CEPA Associate Scholar Jan Jireš assesses the fall of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek’s government and the impact it is likely to have on Czech foreign policy. According to Jireš, the rift over international priorities between the president and prime minister was a catalyst for the no-confidence vote in March. Looking ahead, he believes that anti-EU sentiment will recede among Czech policy-makers, creating an opportunity for closer relations with both the United States and EU.
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Central Europe's Far-Right: Gaining Strength in Troubled Times
Published: 01 May 2009
Ryan Barnes from Risk Metrics Group writes on the growing popularity of far-right parties in Central Europe. Barnes cautions that extremist movements could “use their newfound popularity to push moderate center-right parties – and perhaps society at large – further to the right.” Austria’s recent experience with the far-right holds important lessons for the region. While the EU represents a constraint on far-right agendas, success at the ballot box may actually contribute to their demise.
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Insider View: An Interview with Leszek Balcerowicz
Published: 15 April 2009
In the third installment to its ongoing “Insider View” interview series, Central Europe Digest sits down with Larosiere Task Force participant and CEPA Advisory Council Member Leszek Balcerowicz to discuss the global economic crisis, the challenges it poses to the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the appropriate policy response from the United States and EU. “None of the Central and Eastern European countries,” Balcerowicz argues, “can afford to emulate U.S. economic policies.” The best response is to accelerate structural market reforms.
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Rethinking Global Finance: A Transatlantic Case for China
Published: 15 April 2009
In the wake of the G20 summit in London, CEPA Advisory Council Member John C. Hulsman urges coordinated international action to prevent a worsening of the Central and Eastern European economic crisis. Echoing World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s warnings about Western inaction, he suggests linking Central Europe’s urgent need for capital with the push to restructure global financial institutions. “A deal to set aside money from [a restructured] IMF,” he writes, could “get ahead of the curve of the crisis and recapitalize Eastern European banks, slaking the credit thirst that is imperiling the region’s long-term economic prospects.”
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Insider View: An Interview with Daniel Hamilton
Published: 01 April 2009
As part of a continuing series of interviews with leading thinkers and decision-makers, Central Europe Digest Managing Editor Peter Doran talks with Daniel Hamilton, CEPA Advisory Council Member and Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), about the NATO mission in Afghanistan, prospects for enlargement and U.S. relations with Central Europe.
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NATO’s 60th Anniversary Summit: Defining Success
Published: 01 April 2009
CEPA Associate Scholar and Senior Analyst for Jane's Strategic Advisory Services Jonathan Hayes takes a closer look at the agenda for this year’s NATO Heads of State meeting. While NATO’s “evolving mission will [ultimately] force the alliance to re-imagine its core objectives as a security organization,” Hayes writes, “the alliance’s 60th anniversary summit will not be the venue for this transformation.” In the absence of new troop commitments for the Afghan mission, delegates are likely to highlight public unity on Russia over the deeper divisions plaguing the organization.
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Keeping New Europe
Published: 01 April 2009
CEPA’s Wess Mitchell offers a candid assessment of U.S.-Central European relations ahead of President Obama’s weekend trip to Prague. Contrary to recent press reports, he writes that the Czech Presidency has “acquitted itself with professionalism and creativity” on a demanding array of international problems, providing a valuable makeweight to a short-handed incoming U.S. Administration. “The worst thing the President could do on this trip,” he warns, “is send the signal that Washington is downgrading relations with the Central Europeans to curry favor with larger powers.” Regardless of what he does with missile defense, the new President should make a priority of rewarding and retaining regional allies.
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Issue Brief #110: NATO’s Future, At Home in Europe
Published: 01 April 2009
CEPA Senior Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove offers a penetrating look at the host of challenges facing the North Atlantic Alliance. Anticipating the next phase in the transatlantic debate, Cosgrove argues for consolidating NATO’s recent gains and returning to its original purpose as a European collective security organization. Writes Cosgrove, “The alliance would do well to reconsider its basic mission, now obscured by ‘scope-creep’ and the confusion of the post-9/11 world.” This includes harmonizing EU defense capabilities with NATO, building a constructive dialogue with Russia, upholding security commitments to Central Europe, motivating Western European to spend more on defense, and learning the right lessons from Afghanistan.
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After the Gas Crisis: Europe Remains Vulnerable, Gazprom Gains
Published: 16 March 2009
CEPA’s lead energy security analyst Peter B. Doran assesses Europe’s vulnerability to the next gas crisis. Rather than serving as a catalyst for energy solidarity, the January shut-off has increased the incentive for Central European countries like Hungary to deepen bilateral relation with Russia. While Hungary’s expanded partnership with Gazprom will not create true energy security, “the Hungarian government has few alternatives since existing EU policy has failed" to provide a workable solution.
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Mid-Term Assessment of the Czech EU Presidency
Published: 16 March 2009
Piotr Maciej Kaczyński at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels provides an insightful analysis of the Czech EU Presidency as it nears the mid-point of its term. Early on, the Czech government faced low expectations for success. Since then, Prague has emerged “at the forefront of efforts to safeguard the EU’s most basic principles” while simultaneously managing a number of pressing international crises.
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Central Europe’s Financial Storm: Harbors of Relative Stability Emerge
Published: 02 March 2009
CEPA’s lead economic policy analyst Eva Blaszczynski provides a thought-provoking examination of Central Europe’s recent financial volatility. “While it is true that the global economic crisis has hit Europe’s post-communist countries particularly hard, not all of the region’s economies are toxic.” Blaszczynski argues that some countries “could even represent harbors of relative economic stability amid the current financial storm.” In fact, three distinct economic profiles are developing, each reflecting the severity of country risk and the options available to governments and multi-lateral institutions.
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Cautious Optimism: The Next Phase in Transatlantic Relations
Published: 02 March 2009
Dr. Patrick Keller at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation considers the prospects for transatlantic relations under the Obama administration. Keller sees an opening for principled pragmatism on both sides of the Atlantic and believes that future “U.S.-European cooperation will most likely focus on concrete crisis management.” However, as Washington looks to address international challenges beyond Europe’s borders, Keller cautions that “U.S. leadership in transatlantic affairs will be much less resolute than Europeans are accustomed.”
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Civil Unrest in Bulgaria: Elections Approach As Troubles Mount
Published: 18 February 2009
Sofia-based analyst Andrew MacDowall assesses the political damage of Bulgaria’s violent street protests. “While civil unrest highlights the country’s long-term challenges in battling corruption and securing energy supplies,” MacDowall writes, “Bulgaria’s falling economy may soon become the government’s top priority in the run-up to this year’s elections.” Several parties could potentially form a ruling coalition; the winners, however, will inherit the country’s worst economic climate in more than a decade.
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Missile Defense Tests Obama’s Pragmatism
Published: 18 February 2009
CEPA Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove provides an incisive analysis of the U.S. missile shield’s prospects under the new administration. The White House, Cosgrove writes, should not dismiss the program “as another foolish gambit of the Bush administration, or worse, leverage its cancellation to win the Kremlin’s affection.” Instead, Obama should consider the system within a wider geopolitical context. New security challenges require new defensive measures.
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Baltic Unrest: The "Riga Flu" Could Spread, But How Far?
Published: 02 February 2009
CEPA’s lead economic policy analyst Eva Blaszczynski examines the recent civil unrest in the Baltic States and assesses the potential for turmoil elsewhere in Central Europe. A popular view holds that “the convulsions in the Baltics were the early symptoms of a more serious, region-wide contagion – a kind of ‘Riga Flu’ that threatens to spread civil unrest and financial collapse” throughout the region. While “mounting tensions in Latvia and Lithuania could deepen politically and spread to other regional economies,” Blaszczynski believes that, “the contagion will likely be limited to a select group of countries that display similar characteristics.”
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The Georgia and Ukraine Charters: Paper Promises or New Strategy for the Region?
Published: 02 February 2009
Jonathan Hayes from Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services takes a closer look at America’s new strategic partnerships with Georgia and Ukraine. In Hayes’ view, the Bush White House “hoped to cement Washington’s relations with Kiev and Tbilisi and counter Russia’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy in the region.” While the agreements provide significant guarantees, they “will not immediately lead to a [NATO] Membership Action Plan for either country.”
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Unlikely Bedfellows: Romania's New Cabinet Now Has To Govern
Published: 2 February 2009
CEPA Associate Scholar Serban Popescu offers a compelling analysis of Romania’s new coalition government and the challenges it faces ahead. “Having campaigned on the promise of generous social programs, Prime Minister Boc’s PDL now finds itself confronted with tough economic realities that could force it to recant on its pledges.” Popescu cautions, “The resulting fallout could negatively affect PDL’s prospects in both the upcoming EU parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year.”
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The View from Central Europe: Interview with Czech Ambassador Peter Kolář
Published: 15 January 2009
As part of a new series showcasing the views of leading Central European decision-makers, Central Europe Digest Managing Editor Peter Doran interviews Czech Ambassador Peter Kolář on his country’s term in the rotating EU presidency, the impact of the global economic downturn and the way forward on transatlantic engagement.
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The Czechs Take the Wheel, But Are They Ready?
Published: 15 January 2009
Czech political analyst Jiří Pehe offers a compelling look at the prospects for the Czech presidency of the EU. While some observers have “questioned how the Czech Republic could offer political leadership to the rest of the EU when its own government was divided over ratification [of the Lisbon Treaty],” Pehe believes that lowered expectations may turn out to be an advantage as Prague navigates the challenges ahead.
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The European Gas Crisis: Czech Presidency Sees Opportunity
Published: 15 January 2009
CEPA’s A. Wess Mitchell and Peter B. Doran examine the impact of the European gas crisis and the opportunity it creates for the Czech Republic’s energy security agenda. “This latest episode,” they note, “is different from previous gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine in both severity and scope.” While risks abound, “the recent crisis could prove to be a catalyst for change in the European energy sphere.”
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Perceiving the Russian Threat: How Idenity Politics are Shaping Central European Attitudes Towards Moscow
Published: 15 January 2009
Fulbright Visiting Scholar Jan Jireš provides a Czech perspective on Central European geopolitics. Drawing on the work of Cold War-era intellectuals such as Milan Kundera, Jireš argues that regional threat perceptions vis-à-vis Russia have tended to be shaped less by objective strategic calculations than by the quest by Central European policymakers to anchor their countries in the West. “Paradoxically,” he writes, “the more ardently Central Europeans attempt to define themselves in opposition to Russia and its policies, the less credible their Western credentials become in the eyes of Western Europeans.”
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The Historic Agreement that Wasn't - the EU Compromises on Climate
Published: 15 December 2008
CEPA analyst Peter B. Doran writes on the EU’s new climate agreement. In negotiating a deal, member states were forced to “balance deference for climate security against the real cost of carbon limits and the pressing need for long-term energy security.” Looking forward, “the EU's climate plan will compel countries like Poland to look for viable carbon alternatives.” But not all CEE countries will share the same burden.
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Rebuilding Georgia: A Look Beyond Foreign Aid
Published:15 December 2008
Andrew Peek, foreign affairs advisor to Senator Gordon Smith, offers a compelling look at next steps for American efforts to rebuild Georgia. Peek cautions that foreign aid “by itself will not work.” In addition to investment incentives and diplomatic initiatives, Washington’s support for Georgia should aim to create “an independently sustainable, pro-American balance of power” in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
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The Financial Crisis Hits Europe's Regulatory Environment
Published: 15 December 2008
Consultant William Schirano offers a provocative analysis of the global financial crisis and rising state subsidies in the EU. “American support for the EU common market,” he writes, “should not translate into complacency when European countries move to support dying ‘strategic’ industries.” Still, the EU “should be given another chance to become the transparent and largely free market union that its founders envisioned so many years ago.”
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Arming Kaliningrad: Russia Makes a Counter Offer
Published: 01 December 2008
Jonathan Hayes from Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services examines Russia’s latest proposal to deploy mobile missiles in Kaliningrad and its implications for missile defense. Hayes writes, “Lost amid the broader U.S.-Russia debate on strategic missile defense are the security objectives of Central European states.” In Hayes’ view, moves by Washington and Moscow could erode the region’s overall security if both continue on their current path.
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Hungary's Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Opposition
Published: 01 December 2008
Marek Matraszek, Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations, offers a provocative view of Hungary’s financial crisis and what a victory for Viktor Orban’s opposition Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz) in the upcoming elections might mean for the broader strategic environment in Central Europe. While Fidesz hopes “to restore confidence in the market through a strong governing majority,” an accelerated decline of Hungary’s economy could force it to delay action on electoral promises.
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The Tussel with Brussels
Published: 17 November 2008
Washington-based journalist Adrian J. Erlinger examines how the EU’s climate package may widen the divide over energy security in Europe’s East. Erlinger writes, “Poland’s heavily-subsidized coal monoculture, backed by powerful Silesian business barons, perpetuates a mythology of the fossil fuel as a never-ending domestic source of cheap energy.” However, decreased use of domestic coal could mean increased reliance on imported Russian natural gas.
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Romania's Autumn Fog: Looking Ahead to Parliamentary Elections
Published: 17 November 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Serban Popescu offers a preview of upcoming parliamentary elections in Romania. Since no party is favored to win an outright majority, the make-up of the next government remains unclear. After the vote, President Băsescu will have an opportunity to silence his critics and help craft a stable government in Bucharest.
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Why Barack Obama is Better for Central Europe
Published: 3 November 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Michael Williams offers his view on why an Obama presidency would be better for Central Europe. “America should stand firm for its national interests, but that means accepting reality as it is, not as we would like it to be.” An Obama administration, Williams contends, would work to integrate Russia into regional and global structures and be firm about America’s vision for a free, democratic Europe.
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Why John McCain is Better for Central Europe
Published: 3 November 2008
Contrary to Williams, Sebastian Aulich, Editor of EuropeanCourier.org, believes that a McCain presidency would offer the greatest benefits for the countries of Central Europe. “The GOP is viewed as historically anti-Yalta, anti-Soviet and a strong supporter of freedom movements in the region.” In a McCain administration, he argues, Central Europe would enjoy a high profile in U.S. security and economic initiatives.
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Making LNG Work for Poland
Published: 15 October 2008
Sebastian Aulich, a CEPA Research Assistant and Editor of EuropeanCourier.org, provides an overview of Polish action on the LNG front since last August, when the Russia-Georgia war highlighted concerns about Russia’s energy influence over European countries. He notes how PGNiG’s interest in Iranian gas fields runs counter to U.S. foreign policy objectives, presenting something of a dilemma for Polish decision makers. According to Aulich, “the initiative should rest with the United States to help formulate solutions” to this energy predicament.
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The Polish Navy: Sunk By Missile Defense?
Published: 15 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar and Polish journalist Marek Świerczyński asserts that the Polish navy has “slowly sunk to the bottom of Warsaw’s attention” while military elites debate the ins and outs of missile defense. Świerczyński outlines the poor state of Polish naval capabilities and suggests that “the fewer Poles who see it, the better.”
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Lithuanian Politics with a Russian Flavor?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller throws the spotlight on Lithuanian politics and potential sources of Russian influence in that country. He describes how populist parties with past links to Russia are polling well ahead of the October 12 parliamentary elections. Moving forward, Miller urges Lithuania to minimize the risk of state-capture by diversifying its energy supplies and fighting corruption at home.
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Slovakia's Roma: Ready for the Euro?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Kristina Mikulová describes the economic and social challenges confronting Slovakia’s Roma community and argues that, with the Euro only three months away, the government would do well to step up its Euro information campaign among the Roma. Mikulová suggests that relying on Roma-targeted theatre performances sponsored by the Central Bank is not a sufficient strategy to head off the risk of possible protests.
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After Georgia: Reassessing the Geopolitical Scoreboard
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove takes on the following question in the wake of the Georgia crisis last August: what has Russia won? He argues that, despite several setbacks for the West, the Kremlin does not have much to show for its efforts. Cosgrove characterizes the August War not as the first step towards renewed Russian dominance, but as “a last-gasp attempt to stop the steady eastward march of NATO and the EU.”
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