Almost two years of protests against corruption and incompetence in Vučić’s government may have forced his hand, but calling an early election (scheduled for October 25) is a trick he has successfully used before. He is gambling on his opponents struggling to convert their support on the streets into comparable success at the ballot box.
It is the first time in Serbia’s multiparty era that the National Assembly has been dissolved at the same time as the president resigning, and as the lead candidate for his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Vučić aims to return as prime minister. The constitution won’t allow him to run for president a third time.
Snap parliamentary elections in Serbia have occurred so often that they are something of a national tradition. Since 1992, Serbia has held just three scheduled parliamentary elections, compared to 10 snap votes.
Such unscheduled elections have helped Vučić overcome political difficulties before, including unpopular reforms in 2016, the consequences of an opposition boycott in 2022, and protests over the government response to two mass shootings in May 2023.
Until now, Vučić has managed to take full advantage of this electoral approach, retaining control, or even increasing the number of seats in parliament. But this time there’s the chance of a serious overhaul of the National Assembly.
To the surprise of many, the opposition movement associated with students and the university community — once known as Students in Blockade — has not run out of steam like its predecessors. Instead, it has been gaining momentum since its first gatherings (see table below), which followed the collapse of a renovated roof at Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people and becoming an emblem of government incompetence and corruption. Elections in 10 municipalities in March marked the clearest turning point. While Vučić claimed a 10-0 victory, it was far from convincing, with student-backed rosters coming second in all 10 areas, and in some cases only narrowly behind the ruling party’s lists, which explicitly carried Vučić’s name on the ballot.
After the vote, the scheduled 2027 presidential election, with parliamentary elections six months later, promised to become an uphill battle. To avoid potential humiliation during the country’s flagship EXPO 2027 event in Belgrade, which will run from May to August 2027, Vučić opted instead for early votes.
The rosters of the two main rivals: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia and Student List – Students Win, include professors, economists, artists, and athletes, but with one obvious difference. The Vučić list combines political incumbents with nationally recognizable and established figures, such as internationally respected mathematician Stojan Radenović, Serbian writer and actor Branislav Lečić, and violinist Jovan Kolundžija.
The Student list draws more heavily on respected professionals who are not so well known or favored by the government. Among them are Ilija Srdanović, a physician and university professor who heads the list, playwright Željko Hubač, and former officials such as Dejan Šoškić, who was governor of the National Bank of Serbia between 2010 and 2012. They sit alongside figures from previous opposition movements, such as Zlatko Kokanović, a prominent activist from the Jadar protests against lithium mining.
Paradoxically, the Student list intentionally includes no students, while the Vučić list — essentially the establishment list — excludes many prominent government officials, with the notable exception of Ana Brnabić, the parliamentary speaker and acting President of Serbia.
Vučić can still rely on his personal popularity, a well-aligned bureaucratic system, and his team’s political know-how. Elections require enormous organizational effort, which his side has more experience delivering, along with deep knowledge of the loopholes in the electoral system.
Growing fatigue with both Vučić after almost a decade-long presidency and the current political system may still work against him, despite his declarations of a willingness to change, for instance by promising a compact cabinet of just 12 ministers instead of 31.
Even experts loyal to the ruling party describe the elections as marked by a high degree of uncertainty. On October 25, Serbian voters will say if they are ready to turn the page and welcome a new generation of political leaders in the National Assembly —or whether Vučić’s era is not over yet.
Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva is a Visiting Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), affiliated with the Democratic Resilience Program, and a Visiting Scholar in the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
