Any informed Russian will grasp the logic: Since Russia has been attacking Ukraine for a decade, Ukrainians have a right to shoot back. The drones now hitting targets inside Russia have done small-scale damage compared to that done by Russian forces in Ukraine.
If more Russians begin to feel the pain resulting from their senseless “special military operation,” perhaps more would favor a withdrawal. Many families already feel the loss of the 600,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded, but most have not yet experienced the costs of the war.
Second, the Putin regime has even more reason to fear escalation than NATO countries. In a nuclear war, there would be no winners. In a non-nuclear war, Western forces would prevail — risking Putin’s hold on power.
Third, the Kremlin now seems reconciled to Ukraine’s occupation of Russian territory in the Kursk region — including more than 50 villages whose residents ask, “What happened to the funds that Moscow designated for our defense?”
Kremlin mouthpieces explain that problems do exist in the Kursk region, but that Russian citizens, not government authorities, are responsible.
The Orthodox Church, led by Putin’s close ally Patriarch Kirill, insists that the Kremlin is not to blame for the war spreading into Russian territory. Why? Because it is the fulfillment of God’s will. He has permitted the defeats in Kursk to punish Russians for allowing abortions and continuing to live for themselves.
To overcome negative trends, churchmen say, Russia must spend more on the purchase of military equipment, and all those eligible should join the lines at military registration and enlistment offices. Otherwise, preachers warn, there will be new defeats.
While the Putin regime writes off its defeats in Kursk as God’s will, Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine, menacing Pokrovsk and Kharkiv. At the same time, less than half the aid promised to Kyiv by the West, including Patriot defense systems, F-16s, fighting vehicles, and financial support, has been delivered.
The Baltic republics and a few other smaller countries are meeting their commitments, but the larger NATO members, led by the US, are not.
Ukrainian forces, already exhausted and short of munitions, desperately need more weapons and US permission to use them against military installations in Russia. They can fire only one projectile for every five to 10 delivered by Russian troops, who also outnumber Ukraine’s defenders by large magnitudes.
Kyiv wants to use French and British missiles with US-made components against military targets in Russia, but President Joe Biden, for now, has refused to allow Ukraine to fully utilize weapons already in its inventory.
Recent strikes by Ukrainian-made drones on Russian arms depots in Tver and Toropets, north of Belarus and west of Moscow, have not triggered any uptick in Russian violence. So far it appears that targeting sites inside Russia helps Ukraine defend itself without producing escalation by Moscow.
The Kremlin can attribute any setbacks from future attacks — including those using Western weapons — to God’s displeasure with Russia’s people.
Walter Clemens is Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University and Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Boston University. He wrote Blood Debts: What Putin and Xi Owe Their Victims (2023).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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