Spain has been NATO’s spending laggard for many years and is now under heavy pressure from the Trump administration and European allies to get serious. But to do that, the socialist leader must convince his left-wing coalition partners and fellow Spaniards to accept welfare cuts.
The European Union (EU) is being forced to reckon on a future without the US as the ultimate guarantor of continental security and needs major powers, like Spain, to contribute to a new defense structure. “We are in an era of rearmament,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, reflecting an urgent desire for action underlined by an estimated additional, centrally sanctioned spending of around €800bn ($886bn) on defense.
The challenge is that Spaniards do not share this strong commitment to prioritizing security and defense, even though they do feel a strong affinity to the rest of Europe. A 2024 poll showed more than 70% feel united with the EU but only 20% see security and defense as the bloc’s top priority.
Instead, much of Spain seems stuck in a world where economic cooperation with Russia seemed a recipe for peace and US commitment to the continent was unquestioned.
Part of the problem may be Sanchez himself. While most English language media portray him as a defense-conscious socialist who is being held back by his left-wing coalition partners, he recoils from the language of conflict. In March, he engaged in a somewhat esoteric dispute with the EU about its Rearm program.
Nor has he been a defense hawk in the past. In 2014, as leader of the opposition, he went as far as promising to get rid of the Ministry of Defense in favor of more social spending. That was in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Crimea and is a far cry from his position 11 years later.
“Spain needs to defend Europe, so Europe can defend itself,” Sánchez told his party’s national convention in March. But while he has moved somewhat on the issues, his voters have not. Reconciling these two realities is paramount to delivering on his and Europe’s security ambitions.
It is a delicate tightrope to walk, and European leaders have appealed directly to the Spanish public to try to help swing them behind the prime minister.
“[Although] Russian tanks won’t reach the Pyrenees, we have to stick together on this,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.
Her argument, echoed by Central and Eastern Europeans, is that Madrid should mirror the support it got from the bloc during the Covid-19 pandemic, when over €160bn ($176bn) was spent to rescue the country from possible economic ruin and the collapse of its healthcare system.
Spain can also no longer hide behind its geographical advantage to underspend on defense, allies have warned. “The difference between a missile attack on Warsaw and one on Madrid is 10 minutes,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
He wants the alliance to raise its military spending benchmark “considerably over 3% [of GDP, or national wealth]” at its next summit in June, a target which would put Madrid in deeper trouble.
Sánchez recently surprised his European counterparts by supporting a European army, but the disconnect between his strong rhetoric and Spain’s lack of action is conspicuous.
While Spain is one of the leading allies when it comes to participating in NATO missions, it contributes the least in the alliance to its own defense. Madrid allocated just 1.28% of GDP to defense in 2024 — well below NATO’s target of at least 2%, and nowhere near US President Donald Trump’s target of 5%. Something will have to give.
Last year, alongside boosting defense spending, Sánchez announced Spain would finally reach the near-obsolete 2% benchmark by 2029 — 15 years after the pledge was first made. In late March, Defense Minister Margarita Robles vowed to reach it even earlier without giving any further details. An implementation plan is said to be scheduled for the summer.
The government first needs to pass a funding law for the Armed Forces to provide a stable financial framework for defense and enable medium- and long-term planning. Without that, much of the extra money could be squandered.
Equally important will be forging a trained and motivated force, with a focus on recruitment, retention and management of talent, including by raising salaries. Spain also needs to build its reserve forces, currently at less than 14,000.
It will also be essential to work closely with the domestic defense industry to develop capacity as Europe dramatically scales up domestic military production.
While the military and industrial steps are clear, the political path is not as straightforward. During a Congressional session on March 20, Spanish Second Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, from the hard-left party Sumar, voted against Von der Leyen’s €800bn rearmament plan.
Together with leftwing parties Podemos, Bildu, and BNG, Sumar rejected any increase in military spending at the expense of social programs and even went as far as backing a motion revoking Spain’s membership of NATO.
The country has a 104% debt-to-GDP ratio, making it the fifth-most indebted nation in the 27-member EU. Sánchez commands only 121 of the 350 seats in the Cortes.
He failed to gain approval for his general budget last year and is highly likely to fail again. And mutual animosity means that calling on the support of the opposition Popular Party, which is the largest in Congress, is extremely difficult if not impossible. It is hard to see how he can fix the issue of defense spending.
Spaniards should be wary of falling for the dangerous misconception that rearming is unnecessary because a peace deal in Ukraine is imminent. Vladimir Putin has no intention of negotiating in good faith to end the conflict and, as Kyiv has repeatedly warned, Ukraine will not be the end of his territorial ambitions.
The Madrid-born Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana warned that “those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.” Spain, which was bombed in 1937 by the last expansionist nation intent on dominating Europe, cannot wait. It must confront the worsening security threat with the same earnestness as its allies.
Natalia Hidalgo Martínez is a freelance writer covering transatlantic relations between the US and Europe, European security, and geoeconomics.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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