It was hardly surprising that analytical commemorations flew thick and fast in February on the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A war this long, this destructive, and this costly in human life is a major event.
Furthermore, the war itself threatens not only the peace of Europe, the cohesion of NATO, and nuclear escalation, but the future of the “rules-based” international order itself. Clearly, there is much at stake. As the war enters its third year, momentous decisions are approaching, decisions that will have long-term consequences for the United States, Europe, and the world.
“Critical” is a frequently employed adjective when it comes to Ukraine. This anniversary was no exception. Critical moments have come so frequently that some might be forgiven for starting to question what they constitute.
America’s initial support for battles in the Eastern districts in April 2022; Ukraine’s September 2022 counter-attack and Putin’s statement that occupied territories would be annexed and defended with “all available means” later that month; concerns over escalation because of Ukrainian successes in October 2022; January 2023 when Ukraine faced “the collapse of the world as we know it”— in the words of first lady Olena Zelenksa — while waiting for the delivery of additional Western weapons; and Ukraine’s much-anticipated but underwhelming offensive of mid-2023 were all so described.
To be fair, war, by nature, is a critical business. Sun Tzu’s classic The Art of War, opens with the memorable line “The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin.” But what is so genuinely critical about this phase of the war and why is the conflict itself so important for the world? Why can’t Western politicians just make a deal to make the problem go away?
Part of the answer lies in another anniversary, one receiving far less attention than the start of the war, which we should observe. March marks the two-year anniversary of the Russian massacre of Ukrainian civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.
The Bucha massacre underlines the harsh truth that the political objectives underpinning Russia’s war, and the tactics it employs, have made the conflict a matter of life and death for Ukrainians and for the Ukrainian state itself. And that realization explains the war’s critical importance to the world.
The Bucha anniversary reminds us that Russian forces are waging a comprehensive war of destruction aimed at the elimination of the Ukrainian state.
In December 2022, a report from the United Nations (UN), documented the killing of 441 civilians in Bucha. The report laid out ongoing investigations of hundreds of other incidents involving the murder of civilians and the failure of Russian troops to make any effort to distinguish civilians from military personnel.
As early as April 2022, a third of Ukraine’s infrastructure had been destroyed. According to a report by the UN refugee agency, as of January 2024, more than 3.7 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced. Another 6.3 million have fled the country. That represents about a quarter of the population.
Since February 2022, 19,546 children have been documented as having been abducted by the Russian state. In August 2023, Ukrainian human rights activists testified before the UN that the Ukrainian children deported to Russia had Russian citizenship “imposed on them” amid other attempts to obliterate “their Ukrainian identity.” Forced transfers of children, we should note, was one of Raphael Lemkin’s five policies that define the modern concept of genocide.
But we don’t have to rely on Lemkin’s work. Far from backing away from the idea that Ukraine’s existence is at stake, President Putin openly stated on January 16 that Ukrainian statehood itself would suffer an “irreparable blow” if the war continued along its present course; not that his earlier statements were any more reassuring.
The Kremlin despot’s entire rationale for the war rests on the claim that Ukraine is not a sovereign state. In Putin’s view, Ukrainians should not be able to choose their own government, foreign policy, or economic future; Ukraine, as a nation, has no right to exist.
The world must wake up and recognize that we are confronted with two elements of truly enormous importance: the threat to the existence of the Ukrainian state and the threat to the American-backed international system.
This international system is based on the rule of law, the importance of state sovereignty, and opposition to the age-old acceptance that borders can be changed with military force. This, after all, is why the US led a far-reaching coalition in liberating Kuwait in 1991.
This system has inspired the value of liberty across the world and worked to largely keep the peace among the most powerful states since 1945.
Some “realist” commentators on international politics will be quick to point out that no state has a right to exist. This is arid wordplay. The right of a people to live freely under a government of their choosing, independent of occupation and aggression by their neighbors, is a fundamental right of our modern world — and it is a good principle.
That principle, as much as the Ukrainian state itself, is now under attack. It is true that the West has not always lived by these principles, and a long list of invasions and occupations can be cited to demonstrate its shortcomings. But a violation of principles should not negate their importance or obviate their relevance.
As the American Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in November 2022, this war is “an attack on our shared values — and on the rule of law,” which “tears at the rules-based international order that keeps us all secure.”
Austin’s words are not some trite or trivial talking point. Every country on earth will be less secure if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine succeeds in eroding our belief in the value of norms built up over the past 80 years, and if it pushes the world toward a state of nature where the existence of nations depends solely on their military power.
Two and a half thousand years ago, the brilliant Athenian commander, politician, and historian, Thucydides, famously put in the mouths of the arrogant and brutal Athenian emissaries to Melos the line that in the real world, notions of right and wrong only exist among equals.
Thucydides’ Athenians argue, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” This is a dangerous principle to live by, forfeiting any sense of justice or security. It is purely the law of the jungle where might makes right and life itself is often “nasty, brutish, and short” in Hobbes’ famous formulation.
Unless we want to sink back into that primordial morass, we must acknowledge that supporting Ukraine is a core interest A failure to provide Ukrainians with what they need to win will strike a grave (and potentially fatal) blow to the broader peace the world has known since 1945. Success for Putin means a new emboldening of tyrants and warmongers.
Russia is not seeking minor territorial adjustments. It is not looking for a reasonable compromise. Ukrainians do not wish to surrender their autonomy, liberty, or security; they will not be their own gravediggers.
Modern Western states are founded on the belief that life and liberty are the natural rights of all people. The defense of Ukraine is a defense of that core principle and if that principle doesn’t matter, no principle does.
Andrew R. Novo is a professor of strategic studies at the National Defense University in Washington, DC. The views expressed are entirely his and do not reflect the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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