Nine months after first proposing a partnership with the United States to invest in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, President Zelenskyy finally has his deal. To call the journey to this point a trip on a bumpy road would be an understatement.
Despite the idea’s origin during the Biden administration, Ukraine’s government decided to wait until President Trump had been inaugurated to sign the April 30 deal.
The rationale was obvious; they would be dealing with him for the next four years, and what better way to get into his good graces than to agree to a big business agreement? Moreover, had it been signed by President Biden, the deal’s chances of survival without renegotiation would have been low.
It was a tough process. While Zelenskyy may have hoped for a quick conclusion, it has instead been a difficult three months, which saw US-Ukrainian relations pushed close to breaking point.
And yet, what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. With their deal in hand, there is a path forward towards a new model of cooperation between the two countries. It will be a much more transactional relationship, but President Trump was unlikely to ever continue supporting Ukraine out of goodwill alone. He needs to show the United States is getting something tangible in return, and this agreement establishes a framework for that.
Ukraine needs security, and the United States needs resources. NATO has published a list of 28 “defense-critical raw materials essential for the Allied defense industry” that are essential to produce advanced military equipment.
The US-Ukraine deal covers 27 of these; only Promethium is absent from the list. While the deal did not offer any sort of explicit security guarantee for Ukraine, that was never realistically going to be forthcoming under any administration. What this deal does offer, though, is a formalized long-term strategic relationship. Resource extraction projects don’t get stood up overnight, it is going to require both time and money, in a secure environment, to harvest these materials. The United States, by signing this agreement to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund, is creating a vested interest for itself in Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state.
And the White House stated as much: “This partnership sends a strong message to Russia – the United States has skin in the game and is committed to Ukraine’s long-term success.”
The deal doesn’t commit any specific level of investment by either party into the Fund, but there are a couple of clues that indicate what tangible benefits Ukraine might receive soon to help guarantee its security.
Firstly, the agreement states that any further grant of military assistance provided to Ukraine by the United States, either defense articles or services, will count towards their capital contribution to the Fund. Further to this, the Ukrainian government has stated that past grant assistance does not constitute a debt that needs to be repaid via the Fund. These are both significant developments, given that the Trump Administration has yet to commit new grant security assistance to Ukraine and has been inflating the value of past assistance.
As a practical matter, no investment in Ukraine’s economy can be totally secure with the threat of Russian bombs falling from above. Therefore, the option for the United States to make investments with assets like air defenses, rather than money, is an important feature.
Secondly, although the agreement itself does not identify specific financial contributions, the recently released Presidential Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2026 offers some details. The US partner in the Fund is the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), for which the administration seeks an additional $2.82bn.
The purpose of the increase is to “support US national security and American interests through billions in loans and guarantees that would generate returns to the taxpayer and reduce reliance on foreign aid.” This would include a “new revolving fund to allow DFC to recycle any realized returns from its initial investments”. It’s very likely that this was written with the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund in mind.
Ukraine’s reconstruction needs will of course far exceed a few billion dollars, but another key provision of the agreement is that it seeks to promote private investment as well; not just from the United States, but also “the European Union, and other States supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion.” Excluded from these reconstruction efforts are “those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict.” This is a key provision for policymakers in the US, who do not want People’s Republic of China entities to be welcome in Ukraine.
The agreement and the mood music since then represent a stunning reversal of Ukraine’s fortunes, which were looking extremely bleak after February’s infamous Oval Office debacle.
It respects Ukrainian sovereignty over its territory and resources, complies with Ukraine’s Constitution and laws, and does not preclude Ukrainian accession to the EU. It is about as good an outcome as Ukraine could reasonably expect under the circumstances. While it’s no guarantee that the relationship won’t suffer future setbacks, there is clear momentum in Ukraine’s favor.
While not directly connected with the signing of the agreement, it is notable that just days after, the State Department approved a possible new Foreign Military Sale to Ukraine of F-16 upgrades and sustainment services, worth an estimated $310.5m. This is, of course, not grant assistance, but the willingness to approve large, high-profile arms sales is further indication of improving ties between Washington and Kyiv.
The US Army is also reportedly moving ahead with a deal negotiated by the last administration in which an ex-Israel Defense Forces Patriot Fire Unit will be refurbished in the US and then provided to Ukraine. Additional Patriot systems remain one of Ukraine’s top requests, so making further movement on the system is a key barometer of how warm the relationship can get.
Ultimately, the most important determinant of the success of the deal may be the response of President Putin, though. He has been uncompromising in his demands so far, and President Trump’s patience with him is showing signs of wearing thin. The longer President Zelenskyy can say I made a deal with you and Putin has not, the stronger Ukraine’s hand of cards will grow.
Colby Badhwar is a security columnist for The Insider, a Russia-focused, independent media outlet. He writes on global security issues, with an emphasis on armaments and the arms trade. He is a founding member of Tochnyi, a collaborative project covering the War in Ukraine with a weekly podcast, where his research and analysis can be heard. He resides in Toronto, Canada.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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