The UK is conducting a defense and security review, due to report in the coming weeks, on when it will reach the Labour government’s pledge to reach 2.5% of GDP from the current 2.3%.
That won’t be seen as enough by the new administration, said Maj Gen (rtd.) Gordon “Skip” Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former deputy assistant Secretary General at NATO.
“The bottom line is that it would be welcome, but not seen as necessarily enough,” he said during a CEPA video conference call in January. “We’re not seeing the kinds of defense spending programs for the UK to provide the forces and the capabilities that they’ve signed up to in the NATO defense planning process. So, I’d have to see a real plan to field the forces that UK would be expected to provide.”
The point was underlined by Kurt Volker, the former US ambassador to NATO and CEPA distinguished fellow.
“It would be seen as a positive step, but not enough. Trump will, I think, recognize it takes time for people to adjust defense spending, to effectively deploy resources at a higher level, but he’s going to want to see that movement.
“I suspect that he will expect countries to set a target around 3.5% of GDP on defense and have realistic plans to get there.”
A target of that size would require the UK to increase defense spending by about 50% from its current levels, the equivalent of an extra £25bn ($31bn) annually. This is at a time when the UK public finances are under acute strain and the country’s borrowing costs have been rising.
The UK defense debate has been described by some as slightly ethereal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stuck to his position that the debate focuses on the 2.5% figure, which the previous government had pledged to meet by 2030.
Meanwhile, the discussion has moved on. President Trump has mentioned a figure of 5% for European allies (the current US figure is only about 3.4%), although unnamed sources told the Financial Times that he would probably settle for 3.5%. Agreeing that goal would be linked to favorable trading terms with the US, they said.
The CEPA fellows also questioned the new government’s efforts to hand over UK sovereignty for the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The UK has been ordered to leave the Indian Ocean archipelago by the International Court of Justice (ICJ.) The large US military base at Diego Garcia, one of the islands, would be maintained on a 99-year lease if the deal is agreed.
But there have been complaints from the Chagos Islanders, from British opposition parties, and from the new Mauritius government. The Trump administration has not yet made its position clear.
Volker said: “I think you’re going to see the Trump administration try to reverse this. They’re going to oppose handing them back.”
That would not be an indicator of worsening US-UK relations, he argued, “It’s just that we may have a difference of view over the Chagos Islands.
“The Trump administration wants Europe to do more to take care of Europe, so we can focus elsewhere, and we want support from Europe on things like pushing back on China,” he said.
“The administration is prepared to lead on China, whereas they want Europe to lead more on Europe by taking take care of the continent’s security. They would expect the UK to help with that. That’s the division of labor that they see,” he added.
Mila Tanghe attended Columbia University and is currently an Intern with the Editorial team at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA.)
Francis Harris is Managing Editor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and oversees Europe’s Edge.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End
Russia’s Shadow Warfare
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
