On December 31, a Ukrainian naval drone destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter for the first time using missiles launched from the unmanned craft. Two days later, Ukraine managed to destroy another helicopter and damage a third using the same Magura V5 vessel.
It was first reported in May that Ukraine was adding late 1980s Soviet anti-aircraft missiles to drones. This is part of the sustained burst of drone innovation since the war began three years ago, including anti-trench thermite drones, shotgun-equipped anti-drone UAVs, fiber-optic drones designed to counter electronic warfare and AI-enabled drones for targeting assistance.
Most recently, the Ukrainian Navy launched a series of deep strikes behind enemy lines, employing innovative tactics underlining drone warfare’s rapid evolution. On January 5, Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) deployed kamikaze drones from the Black Sea to target Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Kherson Oblast, valued at $15m–$20m a unit.
The strikes, which hit Russian positions near Pryvillya, represent one of Ukraine’s most imaginative operations in recent times, highlighting its ability to challenge Russian defenses far from the frontlines and to strike targets from unexpected directions.
These USVs have evolved beyond their early use as kamikaze sea boats; they have now evolved into mobile drone-launch platforms. Recent upgrades allow them to carry and deploy aerial drones, as Ukraine showed in December when it heavily damaged Russian-controlled gas platforms in the Black Sea. The strikes also add to the Ukrainian navy’s growing arsenal of land strike capabilities. Russian military bloggers have also commented that Ukraine is using unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to launch one-way drones in attacks on targets around the Black Sea.
“If the Russian military fails to develop effective countermeasures against such launches, many of its military systems, bases, and installations could now fall within striking range of Ukraine’s sea-based USV assets,” said Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank.
Furthermore, this gives Ukraine the opportunity to more freely roam the Black Sea as Russia can no longer assume its aircraft are free to operate against drones. It also means that Ukraine will continue to further target Crimea to systematically weaken Russia’s advanced military assets. Aware that Crimea is politically indispensable to Moscow, Ukraine has been targeting Russian S-400 air defense systems around the Black Sea, forcing Russia to continually replace them. “With constant advancements in [attack] drone ranges on both sides, a Ukrainian USV launch could take place miles from shore, beyond the reach of Russian air, sea, or shore-based surveillance,” Bendett said.
The Kerch Bridge, a vital symbolic link for Putin as it connects Crimea with Russia, has been largely rendered ineffective for heavy cargo transport. By keeping pressure on the bridge with periodic cruise missile and drone strikes, Ukraine ensures that Russia is forced to divert air defense systems to protect it, stretching those assets thin and leaving other fronts vulnerable.
Serhii Kuzan, chair of the think tank Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, noted that: “It is in Ukraine’s interest to disrupt Russia’s military logistics via the Kerch Bridge, as it has already done with logistics involving naval ferries and landing ships, either damaging or completely destroying them.”
Ukraine is also seemingly achieving local superiority over Russian helicopters, which will increase its ability to harass and destroy Russian ships in the Black Sea at least in the short-term. Any vessel transporting military equipment is now a target. “For a time, enemy helicopters restricted our operations at sea. Ukrainian naval drones were detected early, intercepted by helicopters, and relatively quickly destroyed. Reaching Kerch was extremely difficult, given the distance of the route,” Kuzan said.
“The development of air defense systems on unmanned surface vessels (USVs) is once again shifting the situation in Ukraine’s favor, as manned helicopters and aircraft are far more expensive and valuable than boats,” he added.
Ukraine’s naval victories against a much larger power are not without historical precedent. In 1905, Japan also inflicted a humiliating naval defeat on Russia even though it too was a much smaller power. In this case, Ukraine with almost no navy, has stripped Russia of its control of the Black Sea.
This battle mirrors a dynamic chess match of sorts: Russia deploys its navy, Ukraine counters with USVs; Russia uses helicopters, Ukraine responds with anti-aircraft-equipped USVs. For now, Ukraine has seized the upper hand, compelling Russia to consider its next move.
What might happen when drones are used by the biggest powers, like the US and China? Both will need to carefully consider the issue. “The war in the Black Sea demonstrates that an asymmetrical approach can upend the balance of power. Ukraine, with virtually no fleet, is destroying Russia’s navy with limited resources and forcing its remnants to hide,” said Kuzan.
No one weapons system can win a war, but unmanned vehicles are very clearly now a big part of modern warfare. After the war, Ukraine will be a market leader as demand will likely soar for these battle-tested and cost-effective systems that crippled Russia’s once-proud fleet and sent its remnants scuttling for protection in ports far from where they are needed.
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He can be found on X/Twitter @DVKirichenko.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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