Private sector technology has significantly impacted military behavior on the battlefield, from satellite imagery to GPS interference, while at the same time the decisions made by corporations are playing a key role in great power space competition.
This new space economy represents a historic shift away from national agency-led activities, to a wider playing field featuring powerful commercial interests that develop and operate critical space infrastructure.
Corporations supplying NASA and other public sector clients, such as the European Space Agency (ESA), are nothing new. What distinguishes this era is the extent to which research and development is funded, and agendas set, by shareholders and CEOs.
The line between private and public activity in space has also been blurred by the leading role in the new US administration for Elon Musk, whose SpaceX dominates the provision of rockets for NASA. While the company is still a private entity, its CEO has unrivalled access to the ear of President Donald Trump on US government space policy.
In the near term, private space companies are poised to compete, rather than merely cooperate, with public endeavors. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is a primary area of interest, as efforts align to replace the International Space Station (ISS) following its scheduled decommissioning in 2030.
Players alongside SpaceX include Vast, Axiom Space, Blue Origin and Starlab (a Transatlantic partnership between Voyager Space, Northrop Grumman and Airbus). While some of these projects are partially NASA-funded, private equity and venture capital predominate. Axiom Space raised close to $500m, while SpaceX is the world’s most valuable private company.
Beyond LEO, national agencies are focused on the Moon and Mars, specifically through the NASA-led Artemis mission and Gateway — intended as humanity’s first space station orbiting the Moon. The next space race is on, and Russia and China have recruited several other countries, including Egypt, South Africa, Thailand and Pakistan, to their project.
Russia has also withdrawn from the ISS, in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, and plans to launch a new national space station by 2030. India, alongside its lunar ambitions, is also aiming to launch its own station by 2035.
Amid all this activity, the weaponization of space is a fact. Examples include Russia’s space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon and China’s anti-satellite missiles, jammers and Shijian-series satellites, some of which have robotic arms that could be used to grapple with enemy space hardware.
Relying strictly on state sponsorship to counter such endeavors would put the West at a clear geopolitical disadvantage as great powers jockey for dominance in orbit and hot wars threaten international security on Earth.
Public-private partnership offers the West better and more inventive options than the largely state-driven efforts of authoritarian powers. It is vital for a number of reasons.
First, the competition for commercial space dominance is not only a quest for a return on investment, but also for strategic positioning against global competitors. At stake is both preparedness for warfare in multiple theaters and the innovation associated with technological “spin offs” from the pursuit of space exploration.
The original space race brought technological leaps in miniaturization and electronics, with profound returns on Earth that impact everyday life — from wireless headphones and digital cameras to navigation and solar energy.
These economy-boosting innovations are a compelling reason to strategically invest in space R&D, even in peacetime. Competition over the control of critical technologies, like semiconductors, further strengthens the argument.
The new space economy is also fueling innovation in dual-use technology. As humanity prepares a return to the Moon, we must anticipate more extreme hazards associated with spacecraft of longer life making journeys a greater distance from Earth.
Of particular concern for such missions is the development of effective countermeasures against space radiation. The healthcare solutions that satisfy these requirements to make human space travel safe will be portable, low power, and suitable for use in isolated environments. In an era of conflict and climate change, and the looming threat of nuclear war, such innovations have immediate applicability on the ground.
To return to the Moon, and someday become an interplanetary species, will require transdisciplinary, international collaboration beyond the scale of anything humanity has yet achieved. The need to create complex cross-border cooperation is paramount, especially at a moment when isolationism and protectionism are on the rise.
Space has traditionally been an arena where humanity can reach beyond borders to accomplish common goals (though it is also a deeply competitive field.) To create a peaceful and prosperous future benefiting the US, its allies and others, we must imagine new ways to handle technical and administrative complexity, perhaps through new legal or regulatory structures on both sides of the Atlantic. This benefits those taking part but will also demonstrate that democratic countries are pursuing legal mechanisms and agreement in contrast to the reckless behavior of countries including Russia.
While private industry can move quickly, national agencies hold generations of institutional knowledge, are accountable through elected governments and serve the public interest. To leverage the strengths of both, we must create a new playbook for space that will expedite public-private cooperation, while maintaining transparency and security.
While Western governments are the guarantors for Transatlantic security, Western private companies also play a significant role in advancing the geostrategic stance by doing what they do best: delivering the world’s best innovation at a rapid rate, in sync with a noble mission.
Dalia Bankauskaitė is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis with CEPA’s Democratic Resilience Program, Professor at the Vilnius University, and an Expert at the Swedish Defence University. An interdisciplinary expert in security policy, strategic communication, and political advisory, she focuses on advancing the understanding of total defense and strat comms campaigns for high-visibility issues.
Dominykas (Dom) Milasius is a deep tech entrepreneur and investor, with a decade of previous experience in strategic and geopolitical risk advisory across EMEA. He is a co-founder of Delta biosciences, the founder of Unit 370 and works with BSV Ventures, is an alumnus of the Paris Institute of Political Studies and a member of LitBAN and EBAN.
Kate Ludicrum is an infrastructure and technology specialist from Los Angeles, California. She has delivered projects in the US, EU, Afghanistan and Taiwan. Kate has also implemented innovation programs for aerospace and healthcare.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Ukraine 2036
How Today’s Investments Will Shape Tomorrow’s Security
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
