August marks the first anniversary of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – an agreement poised to reshape the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
On the map, the scale of the project (about 42 km, or 26 miles) might not be staggering. But the route is laden with political and geographic meaning as a link between former warring states, connecting Azerbaijan proper and its exclave of Nakhchivan via Armenia’s southernmost territory of Syunik. That opens possibilities for further east-west routes to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast and beyond the Caspian Sea. It also tramples on what the Kremlin imagines to be its backyard.
The route is likely to include road, rail, data, and energy pipelines. Over the past year, the signatories agreed on surveying work for the railway element that will include a link to Turkey. The sides also agreed to establish a Trans-Caspian Enterprise Fund with a capitalization of $201m.
In addition, within the TRIPP framework, Caleb Orr, US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, argued that US companies have reached numerous deals worth some $8bn with Azerbaijan. This is set to reshape bilateral commercial ties and anchor American business in the Caspian region.
This is part of the US-Azerbaijan strategic partnership, much like the similar Washington–Yerevan deal now being ratified by the Armenian side. In May, Armenia and the US also agreed on a framework agreement on TRIPP.
Moreover, the Azerbaijani leadership said its railway link to Armenia is being constructed and was expected to be completed in 2027. As to the actual construction of infrastructure on Armenian soil, it will begin in late 2026-early 2027. As a prelude, the two countries have lifted transit restrictions to open the way for bilateral trade. Throughout the past 12 months, some 60,000 tons of goods have passed via the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
Yet geopolitically, TRIPP resonates across the region and beyond into Central Asia and even the Middle East. For Iran, the project limits the country’s ability to serve as a transit point for Azerbaijani goods circumventing Armenia’s territory from the south. There is also a security dilemma for Tehran given that US security companies might be involved in protecting the corridor and may therefore be operating near the northern border of the Islamic Republic. For Central Asian states, TRIPP will provide a new route to further expand the so-called Middle Corridor, primarily for Kazakh and Uzbek products heading west.
Attention to TRIPP is expected to grow amid uncertainties in the Middle East. Central Asian countries are increasingly keen on trading with the EU via the South Caucasus. Wars in Ukraine and Iran are long-term developments that, in one shape or another, will undercut global supply chains. This unstable environment is a boon for the Middle Corridor, with TRIPP as a key element.
Russia is worried and rightly so. Indeed, what makes TRIPP interesting is that even if the US decides in the future to abandon the project, all countries across the region are heavily invested in continuing the work. From Armenia to Azerbaijan to Turkey, all seek to construct a new route as a way to diversify regional connectivity.
Russia and Iran would prefer if TRIPP failed, but their options are limited. Direct military and economic intervention would damage their already weakening hold on the South Caucasus. Iranian anger at its impotence was probably behind its March drone strike on Nakhchivan, but the attack had little effect.
Russia has resorted to subtler tools such as bans on Armenian products, threats to raise gas prices, and allegedly even ultimatums to decide whether the country will remain in the Eurasian Economic Union or move toward the EU.
Those are more powerful tools, and Yerevan cannot fully ignore them, especially the gas price issue, but Armenia’s behavior has changed to a more Russia-skeptical policy. In a latest move, its new 2026-2031 government program presented Russia as a partner, not as an ally – a major departure in the country’s foreign policy, which will not go unnoticed in Moscow.
A finalized Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty and the resulting regional integration depend on Armenia’s passing of a constitutional amendment removing claims to Azerbaijani territory. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pushed for the amendment in 2027, meaning that the South Caucasus may soon further establish itself as a geography emphasizing east-west rather than north-south routes.
If the amendment is not passed and the signing of a peace treaty is delayed, it could be overtaken by new geopolitical challenges, so endangering the entire process and TRIPP in particular.
Emil Avdaliani is a research fellow at the Turan Research Center and a professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia. His research focuses on the history of silk roads and the interests of great powers in the Middle East and the Caucasus.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
