There have been years of Russian assassinations, explosions, attempts to pervert the transatlantic alliance’s democratic system, and other forms of escalating malfeasance. In recent months though, this has worsened to include Kremlin-directed sabotage against critical energy infrastructure, defense industries, and other entities supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense across NATO countries.
Assassination plots against leading defense industry executives, for example, have led the US to warn against Russia’s “intensifying campaign of subversion.”
To date the Western response has been muted and largely passive, as Benjamin Schmitt of the Center for European Policy Analysis has described. When he asked the Danish prime minister this question in July, she acknowledged that “we are simply being too polite,” but gave no clear response on how the alliance should more appropriately respond.
What can the West do? Clearly, it can continue to pursue a low-key response, using counter-intelligence to warn those targeted by the Russians and to stop plots developing, though this clearly does not always prevent the Kremlin from successfully executing attacks across Europe.
There are also more robust alternatives. A more aggressive strategy would seek to punish, defeat, and reestablish effective deterrence with the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is a mobster and Western thinking should acknowledge this.
In the American masterpiece The Untouchables when the grizzled Chicago beat cop Jim Malone warns Elliot Ness that he can only defeat the gangster Al Capone by achieving escalation dominance. Malone advises Ness that if: “He [Capone] pulls a knife, you pull a gun, he sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.” Only by making clear that Western patience has been exhausted will the West finally safeguard its interests.
Striking back is much easier than it once was. Putin’s decision to launch an all-out invasion 29 months ago has seen the creation of secret armies inside Russian territory. This provides a useful lever, which can be ratcheted up in direct response to Russia’s escalating terrorism abroad.
The alliance collectively, or through various national intelligence agencies, can provide increased support to third parties already conducting sabotage and other activities inside Russia.
Russian freedom fighters and Ukrainian intelligence services are already causing ample damage to Russian petrochemical infrastructure, defense industries, and the Russian elite all on their own. The provision of detailed intelligence, training, and material support to such groups by the West, combined with backchannel messaging to the Kremlin that such activities are a direct response to Russia’s own sabotage and assassination campaigns, should prove influential in changing Putin’s calculus.
In other words, this does not have to be an all-out campaign against Russia. A low-level start would allow the Kremlin to review its campaign of aggression against the West and reconsider.
In the meantime, there are numerous additional steps for the West to take to strengthen its response.
Firstly, revising and renewing existing intelligence-sharing is crucial. There already exists an Intelligence Liaison Unit within NATO headquarters to share intelligence on terrorists; its adaptation would improve understanding of Russian hybrid threats.
Intelligence-sharing agreements must be updated to reflect the evolving nature of the threat, ensuring that all agencies and nations have access to timely and actionable intelligence to dismantle Russian malign networks. This will enable better coordination and more effective responses to hybrid threats.
Strengthening multinational collaboration and collective action against Russian terrorism is also vital. Drawing inspiration from the successes of Operation Gallant Phoenix, through which the international community came together to destroy the caliphate of the Islamic State in Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), while severely degrading its regional affiliates, NATO should establish a dedicated multinational task force focused on countering Russian hybrid threats and destroying the Kremlin’s networks around the world.
This task force should include representatives from intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and the military, facilitating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to hybrid warfare. By treating Russian malign actors like the terrorist that they are, a dedicated task force employing the full range of available intelligence, law enforcement, and security authorities will leave no safe havens from which the Kremlin’s minions can operate with any degree of safety.
Next, it is imperative to enhance cybersecurity measures, given the centrality of such attacks in Russia’s strategy (see June’s attack on the UK’s National Health Service). Investing in robust cybersecurity not only protects critical infrastructure but also develops offensive capabilities to deter and respond to cyber threats.
This also opens the path for Western cyber-attacks against vulnerable Russian networks. This does not have to be done with the same nihilistic approach as our enemies, but it is now necessary. This too might benefit from cooperation with our Ukrainian allies, who have experience in this area. At the same time, Western messaging toward Russian populations must directly paint any attacks against Moscow’s systems as retribution for the Kremlin’s cyber misdeeds abroad.
Ultimately, the transatlantic alliance should also more robustly support pro-democracy movements inside Russia, as there is nothing that Putin and his cronies fear more than a Russian populace no longer willing to endure a system in which the Kremlin harasses, exiles, imprisons, and murders Putin’s political rivals.
The West must recognize that a more aggressive campaign to directly counter Russian malign activities is necessary to reestablish deterrence and proportionally punish the Kremlin for its brazen acts of terrorism.
By adopting a comprehensive and coordinated approach, the West can better safeguard its interests and uphold the principles of democracy and rule of law.
Previous multinational approaches, such as Operation Gallant Phoenix’s success against ISIS, demonstrate that with the right strategies and robust cooperation, it is possible to successfully counter even the most complex and multifaceted hybrid threats.
Doug Livermore is the President of Livermore Strategic Solutions Ltd. and the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves as Chair of the Advisory Committee for No One Left Behind.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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