Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Georgian Dream government played a dual game. While it touted the importance of Euro-Atlantic integration, it continually failed to implement the reforms required for membership of the European Union (EU) and NATO.
Tbilisi portrayed itself as laser-focused on becoming an integral part of Europe but made overtures to China, downplayed Russia’s occupation of Georgia, and engaged with Iran. Western states nonetheless continued to work with the Georgian authorities.
Having come to power in 2012, a time when a reset in US-Russia relations had not yet unraveled, the Georgian government’s conciliatory policies toward three of the world’s most authoritarian regimes did not come under much scrutiny.
The full-scale invasion exposed its true colors. Doubting the West’s resolve in Ukraine, the Georgian Dream government bet on a Russian victory and started openly realigning its policies in favor of the Kremlin. The party’s representatives derided the West and accused the US and Europe of attempting to open a “second front” in Georgia.
Despite, or because of, Georgia’s overwhelmingly pro-Western electorate, the government in Tbilisi tried to stoke fears of war with Russia and spin conspiracy theories which portrayed it as a bulwark between the Kremlin and imagined Western attempts to destabilize the country.
Some of the language used has been extraordinary. Former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man and founder of the Georgian Dream Party, accused NGOs of working on behalf of what he called “the global party of war”, in an April speech. He argued that Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia warranted an apology from Tbilisi as it was the fault of the former ruling party and “outside forces.” His party has also threatened to outlaw the opposition if it wins the October election.
Georgian Dream’s new campaign posters caused an outrage in the country, as the ruling party compared the destruction in Ukraine with the “peace” offered by the Georgian Dream. Opposition media is facing heavy fines after refusing to air these campaign ads.
In response, the evolution of Western policy toward Georgia has been slow, cautious and defensive in an attempt to avoid escalation.
But, as pivotal parliamentary elections approach on October 26, there are clear signs the regime intends to hold on to power through repression.
Civil society representatives, politicians and anti-government demonstrators have faced violent attacks during large-scale protests against the now-adopted Russian-style law on “foreign influence.” Some have been jailed, and hundreds have received threatening and harassing messages.
In September there was a further outcry when Georgia adopted a repressive legislative package targeting the LGBT+ community.
The Georgian regime has shown it is an opponent to the West. The US has gradually started to respond with sanctions, but they have so far made little impact. Georgian Dream officials have disregarded US visa bans and played down sanctions against regime enforcers. Recently, the Ministry of Internal Affairs put a US-sanctioned official responsible for a violent crackdown on citizens in charge of newly created units tasked with “detecting and preventing” electoral violations.
At the same time, Georgia’s vibrant pro-Western population has demonstrated a willingness to peacefully resist the encroaching limitations to democracy and freedom.
The pre-election campaign run by Georgian Dream is built on promises of revenge against the opposition and the annihilation of Western-supported civil society. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s announcement that the government will fund friendly non-governmental organizations while levying fines on those that do not comply with the foreign influence law only underscores this intention. Civil society representatives have little hope of finding justice in courts. Less than a week ago, the Georgian Constitutional Court refused to suspend the operation of the foreign agents’ law. It meanwhile continues to consider an appeal to declare the law unconstitutional filed by the Georgian President backed by over 100 civil society and media organizations, opposition MPs, and journalists.
The West has a vested interest in helping Georgia remain free and democratic, countering Russian attempts to make it part of its sphere of influence. While Moscow applauds the Georgian regime’s actions, Western leaders have largely been silent on the country’s regression.
This allows the Georgian Dream to mislead voters that Georgia will find a way back to Europe even if it consolidates authoritarian rule. Kobakhidze claimed the US has “oligarchic problems” of its own and that President Joe Biden was not even aware of the decision to impose sanctions on Georgia.
It is time for the US and EU to adjust their policies accordingly. Until recently, the Tbilisi government ran a hybrid regime, but it is now increasingly moving toward full-fledged authoritarianism and single-party control.
Western officials acknowledge the current government “won’t lead Georgia to Europe,” and the US has announced a review of its strategic partnership with the country. But Western leaders have yet to directly address the dangers posed by the regime or clarify Western policy to counteract it.
Georgia’s democratic backsliding is not just a local problem. The surge in democracy worldwide that saw its zenith in the early 1990s is now at risk of retreat. The West looks weak as it fails to protect its interests and values and the rules-based international order falters.
Losing Georgia, once a “beacon of liberty,” to illiberal powers would only erode the West’s international standing further, with wide-ranging geopolitical implications.
Remember this is not what Georgians want. Some 86% say they want EU membership and 79% support joining NATO.
Yet the West’s show of powerlessness in Georgia is avoidable. It is a small country with a majority pro-Western population and a vibrant civil society. Hundreds of thousands turned out to protest the repressive foreign agent law this year.
In order to halt Georgia’s backsliding, the US must develop, articulate and implement a robust strategy that ensures continued democratic development. This includes using a full spectrum of foreign policy tools to target the top echelons of the Georgian Dream regime, its repressive apparatus and the elites that help perpetuate its rule.
Time is running short. Just as President Ronald Reagan’s full-throated support for Polish citizens during the 1981 imposition of martial law inspired those in the middle of the struggle for freedom, so Western leaders can inspire Georgians today with clear rhetoric and decisive action.
Irina Arabidze is a CEPA 2022 James S. Denton Fellow and a visiting lecturer at the Caucasus University in Tbilisi. A Fulbright scholarship recipient, Irina holds a master’s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and a graduate degree in International Relations and European Studies from the Central European University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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