“A shadow has fallen upon the scenes so lately lighted by the Allied victory. Nobody knows what Soviet Russia and its Communist international organization intend to do in the immediate future, or what are the limits, if any, to their expansive and proselytizing tendencies.”
This was the moment in 1946 when Winston Churchill declared in Fulton, Missouri, that an Iron Curtain had descended on the European continent. The same shadow looms over the international stage today. Whether in Ukraine or the Middle East, a noxious cocktail of Russian interference, Iranian technology, and Chinese money are combining to corrode the democratic world.
We still don’t know Russia’s plans, the limits of those plans, or indeed whether such a master plan exists. But we do witness the creation of fifth columns within Western countries, with Russian propaganda inserted into elections and troll farms attempting to undermine the solidarity of NATO and EU members. Russia’s political establishment threatens nuclear strikes and increasingly deepens its cooperation with North Korea.
While we see Russia’s shadow spreading across the world map, and the sanctions are having some effect, we have yet to witness the full descent of a new Iron Curtain — even though one might, in the end, serve a valuable purpose for the West.
Any war lasting more than three years becomes a war of attrition and a battle of resources more than of armies. This is precisely what is happening in Ukraine. Despite enormous war expenditures, Putin still possesses significant resources to continue hostilities.
In Russia’s Belgorod region, the one-time enlistment bonus was recently increased to $31,000, it was reported. Russia continues to generate immense revenues for the war, often with the direct or indirect involvement of Western countries or their partners.
Despite sanctions on Russian oil and a price cap of $60 per barrel, in 2024, Russian oil prices reached $84 per barrel. According to the Financial Times, Russia’s shadow fleet grew by 70% this year compared to 2023. China and India remain the largest consumers of Russian oil, which they obtain cheaply and which helps them retain their status as the most significant competitors of Europe in industrial production. Meanwhile, in a report on Europe’s economic challenges, Mario Draghi pointed out that expensive energy resources are a key factor in the region’s industrial crisis.
And it’s not just China and India. Some of Ukraine’s allies, such as the Czech Republic, are also actively financing Russia’s economy. Czech companies spent €7bn on Russian oil and gas — five times more than the €1.29bn in aid provided to Ukraine.
While Putin rakes in the cash, the situation for Ukraine is starkly different. The provision of $35bn in aid from Russia’s frozen assets has been blocked by Hungary’s Kremlin-friendly leader Viktor Orbán with the EU unable to find a solution for months now (an agreement may finally be reached shortly.)
A Czech initiative to supply ammunition is progressing slowly owing to funding issues. France admitted it could not fulfill its commitment of €3bn, and US aid was blocked for four months in 2024 by the Senate.
Amid these challenges, Ukraine’s economy has suffered colossal losses from relentless attacks on its energy infrastructure, and it faces further economic damage with the potential loss of steel exports as a result of the Russian capture of coal mines near Pokrovsk. Some estimates suggest this amounts to $1 trillion of destruction.
The truth is that democracies generally defeat tyranny. This is because free and open societies are capable of generating innovations that provide them with competitive advantages over systems in which individual freedom and initiative are stifled. However, tyrannies can endure indefinitely if they solve the innovation problem by gaining easy access to democracies and their products.
Russian missiles, which destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and children’s hospitals, are equipped with American chips. While Ukrainians are forbidden from striking deep within Russia with American missiles, Russia uses American technologies to indiscriminately attack civilian targets and children throughout Ukraine.
As a result, more voices in the West call for a recognition of Russian “strength” and seek alternative strategies.
And indeed a new strategy is needed, and it may entail the introduction of a new Iron Curtain. The Cold War was a confrontation between two hostile ideological blocs, leaving no room for ambiguity. Today, the world needs that same clarity to defeat Russia.
A new Iron Curtain would force every nation to answer fundamental questions: whose side are you on, what are your values, and what kind of global future do you envision? A new Iron Curtain would cut off Russia’s ability to earn and invest in war, hastening the war’s end. Ultimately, the sooner the war ends, the fewer losses will be borne by Western countries as well.
We should take to heart Churchill’s observation in the same Fulton speech: “From what I have seen of our Russian friends and allies during the war, I am convinced that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness.”
Dr. Victor Andrusiv is a Ukrainian political and civic activist and officer in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He was previously the Director of the Kyiv School of Public Administration From July 2015 to February 2016 was vice-governor of the Donetsk region and from 2006-2014, he led the Democratic Alliance, one of the organizations behind the Euromaidan. He was also one of the camp chiefs on the Maidan. He is the author of the book To Change the Future.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Ukraine 2036
How Today’s Investments Will Shape Tomorrow’s Security
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
