One key aim of American policy has been to detach China from Russia and Iran and to keep the peace in East Asia, much to the chagrin of militant Chinese bloggers who talk up the “Three Wars” theory. In their eyes, simultaneous conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait would destroy Western influence and reset the global order.
For Europe, enmeshed in its own trade and economic dependency on China, the stakes are so high that even Germany has taken tentative military steps to support the Americans. Germany’s troubled industries are wedded to both China and Taiwan, with its critical chip industry, thus stability in the Asia-Pacific theatre is a vital interest.
Two German warships, the frigate Baden-Württemberg and the replenishment ship Frankfurt am Main, are in the sea lanes off China and may soon transit the Taiwan Strait, which would infuriate China. The Luftwaffe sent combat aircraft to Japan earlier this year for their first joint drills.
Low-key but clear in intent, the deployments reaffirm a signal sent in 2021, when a German warship sailed through the South China Sea for the first time in almost two decades.
The problem for the Europeans is that they are often shut out of the room when decisions are made in Washington, while Beijing remains a black box inside which the intentions of President Xi Jinping remain like Schrödinger’s cat — the thought experiment in physics which demonstrates that particles can be in two states at once.
The Biden administration decided early in 2023 that there was a high risk of miscalculation by China between war and peace. We do not know what set off the warning. Presumably, the memoirs of the participants will ultimately reveal whether this originated from a spy, a leak, or an intercept.
In any case, the administration launched a concerted effort to engage the Chinese by the president and his top team. “The message was to tell them not to make a fatal mistake by copying Putin,” says a former intelligence official. It seems to have worked.
Anxious Europeans can learn more from two photographs released after a rare trip to Beijing by the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, who has emerged as the point man in managing the multiple crises on America’s watch.
One showed the lanky Sullivan in a weak handshake with Xi himself, proof that the leader endorsed the dialogue. Xi told him that they must “first and foremost find a good answer to the overarching question: Are China and the United States rivals or partners?”, an encapsulation of China’s binary love-me-or-leave-me approach to US relations.
The other captured the moment when Sullivan met General Zhang Youxia, a belligerent figure who is one of two vice-chairmen of China’s Central Military Commission under Xi.
Zhang is almost unknown outside China but his rank and influence count in messaging. He treated the American to a lecture about Taiwan, which Sullivan must have known off by heart before it was uttered. Its purpose was to give cover to the diplomacy.
According to the Chinese readout, this was the first visit to China by a National Security Advisor for eight years and “an important step taken by the two sides to implement the common understandings of the two presidents.”
There was little sign of unanimity between Sullivan and his usual sparring partner, foreign minister Wang Yi, in what the official Xinhua news agency said were six sessions over two days totaling 11 hours.
Both sides appear to have rehearsed their customary talking points, which the White House listed as “counternarcotics, military-to-military communications, AI safety and risk, cross-Strait issues, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the South China Sea.”
The Chinese spokesman highlighted four red lines at the meetings: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, differing systems, and the “right to development.”
China made it clear that “touching these red lines would take away the floor for China-U.S. relations and render the guardrails useless.”
There was an obligatory jibe, too at what the spokesman called American “misconceptions” and “its mentality of seeking absolute security and absolute advantage.”
‘It really needs to behave in a manner that is conducive to regional peace and stability, while refraining from smearing, scapegoating or shifting the blame onto China.”
But then came a statement that must have been approved by Xi: “The Pacific Ocean is big enough for both China and the United States.”
Wide enough, also, for the chessboard to expand.
Chinese units recently stepped up pressure on disputed waters near the Philippines, prompting Sullivan to issue an explicit warning that the US had an “ironclad commitment” to support its ally in the lawful exercise of its maritime rights.
Both big powers know this is a minor gambit. The real game is to reverse China’s alignment with Russia and there are signs that this is working. A swathe of Chinese banks have stopped ruble transactions under threat of US secondary sanctions, and while Putin is getting some of the military technology he wants, this is limited.
The dream of the “three wars” theory remains, for the moment, an online fantasy. In Sullivan’s words at a press conference: “Nobody is looking for a crisis.”
Not yet, anyway.
Michael Sheridan’s new biography of Xi Jinping The Red Emperor is published by Headline Press, part of the worldwide Hachette Group. He is the author of The Gate to China (2021), a history of Hong Kong, and was Far East Correspondent of The Sunday Times for 20 years.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End
Russia’s Shadow Warfare
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
