There was a time when East European politicians would seek to sway voters with a bowl of beans and sausages. Nowadays ambitions have risen — some prefer to promise cheap gas in return for votes.
Just before Moldova’s regional elections on 5 November, Evghenia Gutul, the governor (baskan) of the Gagauz province of Moldova leaked the news to the local media that a Turkey-based company would sell gas to the region at just one-third of market prices.
To make the story even more credible she also leaked a copy of a letter, reportedly by a Germany-based company, Gas and Electricity Trading, to the Turkish seller, Zen Solar Enerji, promising to supply the gas to Moldova from the EU or Ukraine.
On closer inspection, the leaked document was crudely drafted, displaying many inaccuracies or lacking elementary details such as company addresses, which are typically included in contracts of this kind. The firms said to be involved included one that appears to be run by a restaurant owner with a Russian-sounding name.
The local press identified one of its directors as a close associate of an oligarch in Vladimir Putin’s immediate circle, suggesting this may have been a politically motivated maneuver, with links to Russia.
The Turkish owner did not respond to questions and the German company could not be reached for comment.
Regardless, it should raise multiple alarms.
Any such deal would be declared unlawful because it promises to sell gas to the Gagauz population, in breach of EU market rules, to which Moldova has adhered, and which prohibit discriminatory sales to consumers. The public reaction to such a rejection can be imagined, and would likely cause an uproar.
Even though it was faked, it was designed to cause discord — aiming to buy votes in the pro-Russian Gagauz province, but also create discord among Moldova’s other regions.
Rising energy costs have been a particularly sensitive topic in Moldova after last year’s record energy prices, leading to a fourfold increase in inflation compared to 2021.
The incident may not be a one-off as Moldova, as well as neighboring Romania, where a pro-Russian party, AUR, has been rising in the polls, are heading for presidential and parliamentary elections next year.
The soaring cost of electricity and gas prices following Russia’s decision to cut gas supplies to Europe after the start of its war of aggression last year is a major source of discontent among voters across the Central and East European region.
But while governments have sought to cap consumer tariffs to shield them from the impact, subsidies are hardly a protective measure since the difference between artificially reduced consumer prices and the real market cost of the resource must eventually be recovered from higher taxation.
Gas transactions are complex and difficult to understand, presenting disinformation providers with a rich seam of opportunity.
It doesn’t help either that Russia is now using Turkey to sell more gas to the region via Bulgaria, relying on a number of shell companies, some of which were registered in Russian-friendly jurisdictions such as Cyprus many years ago and have now been activated to sell gas at significant discounts to European market prices.
Natural gas exports from Turkey to Bulgaria increased by 8% or nearly 1bn cubic meters (940million kilowatt hours) this year compared to last.
Although regional buyers have long-term contracts to import Russian gas via this route, the surplus of 1bn cubic meters is difficult to track since Turkey does not provide granular and rigorous data to show the origin of the gas.
The Bulgarian side does report daily on the gas entering its system but Turkey doesn’t, preventing buyers from understanding the origin of molecules that reach European markets.
As a non-EU country, Turkey is under no obligation to provide such information in real-time, providing an ideal environment for Russia to transit gas to Europe under different labels, which cannot be verified.
This gas whitewashed in Turkey is then used not only to enrich a handful of select companies — which secure it cheaply and sell it at a premium on European markets — but also gives Russia an opportunity to refill its war chest while continuing to encourage instability across the region.
Although the EU cannot mandate transparency in Turkey’s gas sector, it can help finance education programs in southeast Europe to explain how gas markets function and how energy supplies have been weaponized by Russia to destabilize Europe.
Resisting Russia’s energy depredations is not a secondary issue; it is key to resisting an extremely dangerous form of warfare.
Dr. Aura Sabadus is a senior energy journalist who writes about Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), a London-based global energy and petrochemicals news and market data provider.
The views expressed are her own.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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