Despite increased defense budgets and advanced technology, key European nations such as Germany and the UK are struggling to recruit and retain enough personnel to meet their defense needs.
Political pledges to beef up NATO’s militaries are falling flat. Germany now accepts that the desire to raise its all-volunteer army to 203,000 from 183,000 by 2031 is unattainable. Britain’s 2021 defense review reduced the army to its lowest strength since 1714 and was explained at the time as a shift from “mass mobilization to information age speed.”
This approach was common. Before the all-out war in Ukraine, future conflicts were envisioned as a high-tech struggle that would require smaller, highly capable units. However, since Russia’s full-scale invasion, the continued need for ground troops and strong, well-provisioned artillery — among other things — has been clear.
So what to do? Not all wars are equal, but the reality is that matching Russia’s military manpower would be a challenge, even considering the trained reserve forces of European countries. High-tech will not be enough to bridge the difference.
The decline in Europe’s armed forces presents a significant challenge. Germany and the UK are not alone in struggling to find personnel — countries like Denmark, Ireland, and others face similar trends, with a steady outflow of military personnel creating dangerous capability gaps.
Despite modernization and recruitment efforts, 21st century European volunteer forces are struggling to meet their defense requirements. Economic concerns, shifting expectations of work-life balance, inadequate military housing, and negative perceptions of service are among the reasons. These developments leave Europe’s defenses weakened, something especially concerning for nations bordering Russia.
Reinstating conscription could effectively address Europe’s military personnel crisis. Finland and Sweden are increasingly relying on conscription, demonstrating that it remains viable in modern times. Finland’s model allows it to mobilize a 900,000-strong reserve force that is central to its national defense. Sweden also revived conscription in response to rising Russian aggression after years of reducing the size of its military after the Cold War. Indeed, all the Baltic and Nordic countries now have some variant of mandatory service.
Germany plans a law asking young men reaching 18 whether they are willing to serve. Like most current proposals this is far from a universal call-up, but it would allow the Bundeswehr to select troops and bolster its numbers.
The ability to rapidly mobilize large numbers of trained personnel is one of conscription’s key advantages. Ukraine’s ongoing struggle with manpower shortages, despite having 1.2 million active-duty military personnel, illustrates the importance of having reserves at the ready. European NATO members, without conscription, would struggle to mobilize even 300,000 troops in a prolonged conflict.
Many studies, such as the Pew Research Center’s 2022 study, highlight a significant psychological barrier in Europe’s defense readiness, with many national populations showing a low willingness to defend their country. For example, in the United Kingdom and Spain, only 32% and 33% of the population, respectively, are willing to take up arms.
In contrast, countries with conscription-based military models, such as Finland, demonstrate higher motivation and readiness, with 74% of Finns willing to defend their country, suggesting that mandatory service fosters a stronger sense of duty and preparedness.
Beyond the military advantages, conscription brings societal benefits. In countries with conscription, if well implemented, the military is a rite of passage, instilling leadership, teamwork, crisis management, and adaptability skills that benefit both the military and civilian sectors, contributing to the country’s social cohesion. The European Union (EU) is increasingly aiming to strengthen its civil defense capabilities by focusing on a more holistic approach to national security. The conscription model for the military would be an important complementary element.
A study by sociologists Ori Swed and John Sibley Butler on Israeli conscription highlights how military service builds human, social, and cultural capital that extends far beyond the battlefield. Conscription can improve public perceptions of the military. As Sweden’s Defense Minister, Peter Hultqvist, noted, conscription boosts military readiness and increases public engagement in national defense. By involving a broad segment of society in military service, conscription can transform national defense from the task of a professional elite into a shared national effort.
With increasing Russian aggression, conscription is gaining attention among European leaders. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has emphasized that conscription should be considered by other European countries in response to the Russian threat. He stressed that European nations must focus on preparation, and conscription is a crucial measure to ensure military readiness.
As tensions with Russia increase, European nations, particularly those closest to its borders, can no longer afford to rely exclusively on volunteer recruitment to safeguard their defense. Conscription not only addresses the pressing shortage of personnel but also promotes a sense of national unity, reshapes perceptions of military service, and equips citizens with valuable life skills.
It is increasingly necessary that European countries take decisive action to reintroduce conscription as part of a modern defense strategy.
Tomi Huhtanen has been the Executive Director of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies since 2015. From 1999 to 2007, he was a Political Adviser and subsequently a Senior Adviser for the European People’s Party, mainly focusing on economic and social policy. He has provided analysis on a host of political issues for European and international outlets such as Euronews, the Hindustan Times, Deutsche Welle, the Financial Times, Le Monde, and Kathimerini. He speaks Finnish, Swedish, English, Spanish, French, Italian, and Greek and has basic knowledge of German.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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