Ukraine has been forcefully striking strategic routes that act as a lifeline for Russia’s military occupation of Crimea. At the same time, the Kremlin talks tough and is in denial about the possibility of losing territory it has illegally occupied since 2014.
Predominantly using drones, Ukraine has repeatedly targeted military logistics route R-280, which connects Simferopol and Mariupol, including the bridge linking Kherson Oblast with Crimea. The results can be spectacular (see here) and have caused a sharp fall-off in truck traffic. It has also hit oil refineries, Russian vessels, and air defense systems on the peninsula.
This is very much a siege in the modern sense of the term, with serious effects resulting from militarily enforced isolation. It is making the occupation harder. Russian authorities have suspended and reduced passenger train services in Crimea, potential vacationers are canceling their summer hotel bookings, and hundreds of drivers are forced to line up for fuel.
“We will… make it extremely difficult for any military personnel or those working in the defense industry to remain in Crimea, in the temporarily occupied territories, or use the access routes to them,” Ukraine drone commander “Magyar” Brovdi told Reuters on June 11.
Just the thought of Russia losing control over Crimea is humiliating for the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin’s regime has heavily invested in propaganda to persuade the West to accept its annexation as a done deal and the peninsula as truly Russian.
The narrative was so heavily pushed that it was repeated by senior Western policymakers, including Croatian President Zoran Milanovic in 2023 and Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in October, drawing criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Crimea is in fact more like a crime scene after more than 200 years of ethnic cleansing, as any Crimean Tartar will explain.)
Kyiv has insisted Crimea is only “temporarily occupied” ever since it was annexed in 2014, and the tide is changing in its favor as it pushes the limits of defense innovation. It is increasingly confident that it can build a kill zone over all the occupied territories to push the Russians out.
The evolution and expansion of drone production have increased Kyiv’s ability to strike targets throughout the occupied territories and beyond, undermining Moscow’s claims that Crimea has been permanently lost to Russia. Igor Girkin, a former FSB colonel and Russian nationalist who played a key role in the annexation of the peninsula, is one of several who have sounded the alarm about Russia’s vulnerabilities there.
As the reunification of Crimea with Ukraine becomes a realistic possibility in the eyes of Western skeptics, Ukraine can expect more diplomatic and military support for de-occupation. And the prospect of Russia losing control of such prized Ukrainian territory carries massive symbolic weight.
The peninsula’s cities, such as Yalta and Sevastopol, were heavily integrated into Soviet mythology due to their military significance in World War II and the Cold War. “In the hearts and minds of people, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia,” Putin said at the time of the annexation in March 2014. He has repeatedly said the issue of Crimea is “closed.”
But each Ukrainian drone strike shakes Russian confidence.
When Putin annexed Crimea, he could not have imagined the possibility of swarms of drones and an innovative Ukrainian military-industrial complex threatening his grip. Indeed, eight years later, he believed he would be able to take Kyiv in three days with little damage to his forces.
Russian hubris has meant strategic assets and routes remain exposed and poorly defended, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack them drone by drone. Russia is failing to replenish resources and shore up defenses, and, if the Kerch Bridge is destroyed or made unusable, the outlook for Moscow will be even tougher.
The strategic advantage of Ukraine regaining control over Crimea cannot be overestimated. It would give it a much stronger posture to protect its trade routes and interests on all sides of the peninsula, including the Azov Sea and the Black Sea trade and military corridors.
The Russian narrative would also shatter, resulting in a shift of momentum that could help drive the liberation of other occupied areas.
The prospect of losing Crimea increases Putin’s troubles at home, since the one victory Russians were certain his regime could guarantee is now being questioned. This pressure will have significant implications at the negotiating table, and Putin’s demands that Ukraine cede the Donbas will further weaken.
Growing pressure is rebalancing leverage in Ukraine’s favor and helping Kyiv get closer to the prospect of discussions centered on the pre-2014 territorial settlement.
The outcome is still far from certain, but Putin’s options are being narrowed, pushing him closer to the reality that coming to the negotiating table and ending the war is his only choice.
Ilya Timtchenko is a Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at CEPA. Timtchenko is an analyst with more than 14 years of experience focused on Eastern Europe. He holds a Master’s in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School, where he was a Belfer Center fellow. Before studying at Harvard, Timtchenko worked as an editor and journalist in Ukraine from 2014.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
