Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has driven the Kremlin to build deeper relationships with non-Western countries, including those with openly dictatorial regimes. These new allies have helped Moscow bypass sanctions and continue its aggression. But there are downsides.
For example, Moscow took delivery of around 200 Iranian Fath-360 ballistic missiles in September for use against Ukraine. Kyiv lacks sufficient air defenses capable of shooting down such weapons, making it a doubly dangerous development.
But Iran is materially aiding Russia’s war effort, it doesn’t mean its foreign policy is aligned with the interests of the Kremlin. In mid-September, Russian military analysts were startled to discover an article published by Tasnim, an Iranian news agency linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which said “the imaginary Zangezur Corridor will never be created, ” and “Russian friends” should not expect it to resolve their problems with Armenia.
Backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Zangezur Corridor is a proposed transportation route that would provide a land connection through Armenia between the main landmass of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. It would be especially beneficial for Baku as it would create a new route through the Caspian Sea for rapid cargo deliveries to Turkey and the countries of Central Asia. The Kremlin is also interested because it would facilitate access to the Mediterranean.
But Iran is unhappy with the idea. It supports Armenia and fears the corridor would further weaken an ally already beaten in the wars for Nagorno-Karabakh that ended in 2023.
Russian media has acknowledged that Iran is unhappy with the Kremlin’s active support for the project. Citing Iranian media, the Kommersant newspaper noted that: “Tehran fears losing contact with its neighbor, Armenia, because the Corridor, which must cross its territory, presupposes extraterritorial control.”
The Zangezur Corridor is not the only bone of contention in Russo-Iranian relations. Tehran also sent a protest note to Russia over an announcement by the Russian-Arabian Cooperation Forum on the ownership of three islands in the Persian Gulf. But the declared opposition to the Zangezur Corridor is more serious.
China, another close ally, is also creating economic problems for Russia. Analysts writing for the Military Review website, which is close to the Ministry of Defense, questioned what Beijing is to Moscow: a friend, a partner, or a competitor? China’s biggest banks refuse to work with sanctioned Russian companies, while other Chinese financial institutions have begun to reject funds from Russia or its citizens, regardless of their country of residence.
Viktor Biryukov, an analyst writing for Military Review, not only accused China of abiding by Western sanctions in direct contradiction to its declarations of friendship with Moscow but also criticized “Chinese socialism,” describing it as “authoritarian Asian capitalism.”
Abiding by sanctions and maintaining trade relations with the US is beneficial for China, therefore “there is no point in talking about friendship between the Russian Federation and the PRC,” he wrote, before adding that “historically, China has never been an ally of Russia.”
In addition to unfriendly moves by states, the Kremlin has referred to as its closest allies, the choice of partners elsewhere in the world has led to the emergence of new enemies.
While Putin’s pet think tank, the Valdai Discussion Club, publishes articles about the “true love” between Moscow and some African countries, the business newspaper Vzglyad warned that separatist groups from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are creating a united front against Russia’s presence on the continent.
The paper blamed France for the anti-Russian activity, but it is undeniable that, even without intervention from Paris, Africa already contained many groups unhappy with the Kremlin’s involvement in military coups and support for authoritarian regimes.
Mercenaries from the Wagner Group played key roles in the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, and such interference in civil conflicts inevitably gives rise to discontent, according to Irina Filatova, a political scientist and honorary professor at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Russian interference in Syria has also led to hatred of Moscow among Islamist radicals and the country’s more moderate opposition. While Kremlin propaganda warns of agreements between Kyiv and “Syrian radicals,” Russia’s problems with people in Syria are the result of Russia’s actions, not Ukraine’s.
Each of these challenges created by the Kremlin’s new diplomacy requires economic and military resources from the center, and the attention of its policymakers. They are a distraction and a drain on a state already engaged in a major war.
Kseniya Kirillova is an analyst focused on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, and foreign policy. The author of numerous articles for CEPA and the Jamestown Foundation, she has also written for the Atlantic Council, Stratfor, and others.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
