The parliamentary elections in Georgia have sparked widespread debate and concern. Victory for the anti-Western Georgian Dream (GD) party in the October 26 vote, despite an overwhelming majority of voters expressing strong support for a European future, left many searching for answers.
In the wake of the election, Georgia’s President and opposition leaders rejected the results and called for street protests. International monitoring missions have deemed the elections neither free nor fair, and local observer groups are demanding the annulment of the vast majority of results.
While local monitoring missions continue to collect evidence of election-day manipulation, it is already known that several underlying factors contributed significantly to the disputed outcome.
Firstly, the ruling party exercised a huge advantage over the opposition in its use of administrative resources, which fed into its electoral advantage. The government employs one in four citizens, a number that has been steadily increasing. Additionally, the state provides financial assistance to almost 700,000 people, representing 18.3% of the population in a country where 11% live below the absolute poverty line.
Georgian Dream has been known to exchange jobs and financial support for political loyalty, often intimidating those who resist. Such tactics are particularly effective among recipients of state aid and public sector employees — like teachers and municipal workers — who fear retribution.
Minority-populated regions are especially vulnerable, with allegations of vote tampering rampant. In Ninotsminda, a district in the south of the country with a majority Armenian population, for example, GD recorded support of almost 90%.
Attempts by the opposition to counter this well-oiled authoritarian machine largely failed. Pro-Western parties urged voters to cast their ballots without fear of retribution, reassuring them the voting process was anonymous, but local election monitors concluded secrecy was severely compromised on election day, confirming voters’ concerns.
Georgian Dream’s rhetoric also significantly influenced public perceptions. In its campaign, the ruling party turned the election into a stark choice between war and peace. While the opposition promised closer ties with Europe, GD said failure to elect the party would bring Russian violence. “The sound of chirping birds will be replaced with the sound of bombs and wheezing bullets,” GD leader Bidzina Ivanishvili warned the electorate.
This narrative resonated deeply with a population still scarred by Russia’s military aggression in 2008 and the continuous occupation of its territories. Georgia, with its limited military capacity and lack of strategic depth compared to Ukraine, feels especially vulnerable.
Those who wholeheartedly support a Ukrainian victory have seen Western war fatigue and military aid to Kyiv slow to a trickle. Many question whether the West genuinely cares about their security, and the opposition failed to articulate a compelling case that Georgia’s security is intrinsically tied to its European aspirations.
And even where the case was made, the opposition’s promise of a European future appeared distant and uncertain. After all, some nations have been standing in line to join the European Union for decades.
At the same time, Georgian Dream capitalized on fears of losing traditional values, another well-tested strand of disinformation. The ruling party has adopted repressive anti-LGBT laws to counter imagined threats to the family from the West.
Ultimately, none of the opposition parties managed to position themselves as a clear alternative to the ruling party. Despite public dissent against Georgia’s drift into Moscow’s orbit, and the government’s popularity appearing at an all-time low, the election results showed no significant improvement for the opposition since 2021’s municipal elections.
The West’s perceived weakness has only intensified fears of instability and a sense of vulnerability among Georgians. As the free world appears weary of protecting its ideals, and anti-Western and anti-liberal forces gain traction across the globe, the effects of Russia’s unpunished aggression in Georgia in 2008 reverberate in Ukraine.
The central message of Georgian Dream during the election campaign was simple: Russia would retaliate against a Georgian quest for freedom, and the West would either be unable or unwilling to intervene.
Even the staunchest pro-Western advocates in Georgia are increasingly anxious that the West is allowing a friendly nation to slip through the cracks of what was known as the world order. GD’s provocative rhetoric and actions — targeting Western institutions and senior American and European diplomats — have gone largely unpunished.
While the US eventually announced sanctions, they have been minor, leaving many to believe the West is weak and uninterested in Georgia’s fate.
It is not too late for the West to act decisively. It must send a clear message to Georgian Dream that failure to address election-day violations, and attempts to undermine civil society and the media, will result in serious consequences.
The ruling party’s campaign, marked by harassment, manipulation, and election-day meddling has denied voters a free and fair electoral process. The West has the opportunity to uphold its values, but Georgians ask if it has the will to do so?
Irina Arabidze is a CEPA 2022 James S. Denton Fellow and a visiting lecturer at the Caucasus University in Tbilisi. A Fulbright scholarship recipient, Irina holds a master’s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and a graduate degree in International Relations and European Studies from the Central European University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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