For an alliance built on cooperation, NATO airpower often seems like a competition. With a dozen types of combat jets, from cutting-edge stealth fighters to old Soviet designs, the alliance has lacked a standard combat aircraft.
If any weapon had a chance to be called “NATO’s jet,” it was the F-35. Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the stream of orders became a torrent. The list of nations who have bought the Lightning II reads like a map of Europe: Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Switzerland, the UK and the US.
Portugal also favored the F-35 to replace its F-16s. Add in non-NATO Switzerland — which wants to order 36 jets to replace its aging F-18s — and the F-35 has a claim to be called “Europe’s jet.”
Is there a problem? There certainly is. A welter of US statements (and tariffs) suggesting that the continent is no longer seen as a friend is taking its toll. Portugal and Canada are reconsidering their decisions to buy the fifth-generation stealth fighter. A key Danish legislator says he regrets supporting his country’s purchase of the F-35, and warns that his country “must avoid American weapons if at all possible.” British trade unions are demanding that the Royal Air Force buy fourth-generation Eurofighter Typhoons instead of F-35s.
European trade unions aren’t the best judge of weaponry, wherever it’s manufactured, but there are plausible reasons for Europe to feel some degree of buyer’s remorse.
Take the US administration’s pledge to annex Greenland from Denmark, even refusing to rule out using military force to seize territory from a fellow NATO ally. There is profound anger over the value destruction caused by newly imposed tariffs. And there are rumors — denied by American and European officials, as well as the aircraft manufacturer, Lockheed Martin — that the F-35 has a “kill switch” that enables the US to deactivate the jet remotely. Persistent development and manufacturing problems have hampered the aircraft’s capabilities and driven up the cost.
Meanwhile, European nations, including Britain, France and Germany, are pushing for the continent to rearm against the Russian threat. Buying European-made jets such as France’s Rafale, Sweden’s Gripen, and the Typhoon would be a big boost to Europe’s struggling defense-industrial base.
Nonetheless, there are three questions that Europe must address before dumping the F-35. First, what exactly is Europe’s alternative? By 2035, there will be more than 600 F-35s stationed on NATO airbases in Europe, according to Lockheed Martin.
Around 2,500 F-35s have been ordered for the US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, plus another 1,000 for overseas customers, of which 1,100 have been delivered. Lockheed Martin plans to roll out 190 F-35s in 2025 alone (in addition, there is Boeing’s F-15EX at 1.5 aircraft per month).
Replacing them becomes a problem of scale. Even for a behemoth like Lockheed Martin, building 3,500 advanced jets is a strain. For Rafale manufacturer Dassault, there have been just 507 Rafales ordered, of which fewer than 300 have been delivered. Dassault boasts that production will soar from two aircraft a month to as many as five per month. At that rate, it would take years to meet existing orders for the French and foreign militaries.
As for the Gripen, only about 300 have been built since 1987, and manufacturer Saab only has a capacity to turn out 24 per year. About 700 Eurofighter Typhoons — a British-German-Italian-Spanish project — have been produced, with an annual capacity of 20 planes per year.
It’s true that new aircraft are in the pipeline. The continent currently has two competing projects: there is the French-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System project to build a sixth-generation fighter more advanced than the fifth-generation F-35. History suggests that its scheduled 2040 debut will be delayed, nor it is it guaranteed that there will be enough money and political will to complete the project.
There is also the British-Japanese-Italian Global Combat Air System, which is due to enter service in 2035 at a cost of at least $100bn. The European civil airline-maker Airbus has suggested that the programs be merged to avoid cost duplication, though there is so far no sign that will happen.
But the continent’s air forces needs jets right now and cannot wait a decade. In the interim, current European production of fourth-generation aircraft is only around 60 new jets per year, so it would take years to replace the F-35s on order, and to expand manufacturing capacity to meet demand.
Add in the need to fulfill non-European sales to lower the price tag for these jets, and the possibility that European rearmament could include additional aircraft orders, and the F-35 is not quite so disposable.
Also, if the F-35 is to be superseded by a European fighter, than which nation’s fighter wins that honor? All politics are local, and so are many manufacturing jobs. Rafale is frequently mentioned as a contender for the F-35’s spot. But Swedish manufacturers and unions will want some of that business, not to mention Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain, who collaborated on the Typhoon.
In addition, European jets use many American components, such as General Electric engines for the Gripen, and electronics for the Rafale and Typhoon. Conversely, numerous European-made parts are in the F-35: “UK industry is responsible for manufacturing 15% by value of each and every F-35 aircraft,” one British official said. Lockheed Martin says about 25% of the plane is European, underlining the mutual dependence of many modern weapons systems and the difficulty of defense sovereignty, even for the US.
Finally, what are the costs of foregoing a more or less Europe-wide jet? Compatibility boosts interoperability and smooths logistics. Politically, it is a highly tangible sign of security ties between nations.
Given the volatility of the world — and of American domestic politics — it makes sense for Europe not to pin its defense on a single foreign-made weapon. Cutting back on some F-35 orders, while acquiring some European fighters, would be prudent.
Under normal conditions, Europe would have time to increase its defense manufacturing capacity. But with an aggressive Russia on the doorstep, conditions are hardly normal. Whatever its flaws, the F-35 is a weapon that is available now and fits Europe’s immediate needs. Unless, and assuming, that the aircraft doesn’t become part of the current trade war.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End
Russia’s Shadow Warfare
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
