Russian drones have crossed into Moldovan airspace more frequently in 2026 than at any time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago.
Chișinău International Airport has been forced to suspend operations for spells to protect civilian aviation, and Moldovan authorities have admitted that, while they can detect the drones, they lack the capacity to intercept them.
A French radar system bought with public money, and another with European Union assistance, sound the alarm, but Moldova does not have the resources for military jets or other systems to shoot them down.
Neighboring Romania has F-16 fighters, but Moldova cannot benefit from their support because its neutrality blocks such military cooperation.
The Air Operation Service of the national army reported at least 81 cases of Russian drone incursions in the past four years. The frequency of such incidents grew gradually from a few cases in 2022 to more than 40 so far this year. Six missiles have also been detected.
The majority were believed to be heading for targets in Ukraine and deviated into Moldovan airspace.
Debris from crashed drones has been found on Moldovan territory, particularly in districts bordering Ukraine’s Odesa oblast, where Moscow has been targeting port facilities and logistics centers. One caused a fire at a vineyard and blew out windows. Another landed 100 yards from a residential building. No casualties have been registered so far.
Moldovan authorities have condemned Russia for violating its airspace, and ministers have reiterated plans for an integrated air defense system.
Unlike Ukraine, which joined the European Drone Wall and Eastern Flank Watch, the EU’s initiatives countering unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Moldova is missing from the equation.
Yet Moldova could benefit from collective EU-Ukraine drone defense, which is now under creation as part of the EU Eastern Flank anti-drone effort. But, as things stand, it cannot reduce the cost of its own system by benefiting from the EU’s wider integrated air defense capacity.
Moldovan authorities say Russian drones enter its airspace when they try to bypass jamming and other countermeasures over Ukraine. This not only puts Moldovans at risk but also represents a form of shadow warfare against the country, replicating Russian behavior towards NATO neighbors including Romania and the Baltic states.
Although most of the drones leave Moldovan airspace again, they still pose a risk, Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi said. Chișinău summoned Russia’s ambassador on October 4 to protest against incursions of drones and rockets.
The ambassador, Oleg Ozerov, said he had been shown no evidence they were Russian. A month earlier, however, he acknowledged that some drones could be Russian-made, but denied Moldova was “the target” of the attacks.
After almost five years of war in Ukraine, the Moldovan government is seeking to update the law to address this threat. The governing Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has proposed legislation to permit the production of dual-use drones, which could be used for national security alongside agricultural and other civilian uses.
Such legislation walks a thin line between Moldova’s integration into an export-oriented military industry and its constitutional neutrality.
It also raises questions about Moldova’s institutional capacity to enforce an effective traceability mechanism to prevent military or dual-use equipment from getting into the wrong hands.
PAS lawmakers say Moldovan drones, if manufacturing is given the go-ahead, would not be destined for Ukraine. The reassurance came in response to Russian allegations that Moldova is being “militarized” with the assistance of EU financial aid.
Russian officials, including Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, said in October that they are aware of existing drone production in Vadul-lui-Vodă, a city a 30-minute drive from Chișinău.
Her comments came after Russia’s Ministry of Defense hinted at potential attacks on European factories producing drones for Ukraine, including facilities in London, Munich, Madrid and Prague.
As Moscow seeks to force Ukraine to capitulate by destroying its energy assets, Moldovan territory is likely to remain at high risk from Russian drones.
Denis Cenusa is a Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and an associate expert at the Eastern Europe Studies Centre in Lithuania, and the Expert Group in Moldova. He holds a master’s degree in European Interdisciplinary Studies from the College of Europe (2013). An alumnus of the US Department of State’s International Visitor Leadership Program (2020), Cenusa completed a fellowship at the Eastern European Studies Center in Vilnius (2022).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
