Almost 14,000 people used the route to enter the bloc in 2023, a near-fivefold rise over the previous year. The sudden increase has revealed a significant gap in the regulation of the Kaliningrad transit and raises questions about security and the effectiveness of sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Russian passengers traveling across Lithuania to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on the Baltic coast, are able to disembark in the village of Kena and travel from there to the rest of the EU. While many have papers that would allow travel to Lithuania by other routes, the threat of Russian agents or military personnel using the railroad as a backdoor to the West should not be underestimated.
Inaction over the misuse of the line threatens to undermine attempts to strengthen Lithuania’s security, and may even put Lithuania and NATO in a position where they will have to respond to a hybrid attack.
The Kaliningrad transit route attracted global attention in June 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when Lithuania banned the rail transport of sanctioned goods to and from the Russian exclave through its territory.
A month later, after a fierce reaction from the Kremlin, the EU updated its guidance to say that only the transit of sanctioned cargoes by road was prohibited. Lithuania lifted the blanket ban and goods — except military and dual-use products — continued rolling through Lithuania by rail.
This was, however, only half the story. In 2002, the EU and Russia had agreed to allow free passage from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad through Lithuania for “persons” as well as goods, “with the aim of further developing the strategic partnership between the EU and Russia.” The people part of this equation has now become a problem.
Concern over passenger transit by rail mounted after serious breaches of the scheme were revealed. As a result of the 2002 agreement, holders of the Facilitated Rail Travel Document are permitted to travel on a single route across Lithuanian territory: Kena–Vilnius–Kaunas–Kybartai. Disembarking from trains in Lithuania was not part of the plan.
However, when the trains make a compulsory stop for technical inspection at Kena, shortly after entering Lithuania from Belarus, some passengers simply leave the trains.
Although there is no official way to book a ticket by transit train to the Lithuanian village, an increasing number of Russians are using it to enter the EU, making travel, which is tightly restricted, cheaper, and less time-consuming.
Those disembarking are mostly Russian citizens holding EU residence permits, who are then able to travel across open borders to other countries in the bloc’s Schengen zone without any further restrictions or checks.
Lithuanian government officials have repeatedly identified the Kaliningrad transit route as a security risk, with the unauthorized halting of transit trains and disembarking of passengers the greatest concern. Rightly so as “grey zone” operations with Russian agents or military personnel taking advantage of blurred lines between accidental security incidents and well-prepared diversions fit well with the Putin regime’s playbook.
The number of passengers on each train has been limited to 300, and Vilnius has been given additional funding by the EU to upgrade security as it seeks to clamp down. But, the government is divided on the extent of the threat and the best way for the loophole to be closed.
The president’s office says it’s an issue for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which says in turn that it’s not within its competence. Minister of the Interior Agnė Bilotaitė said a new “systemic model” for border control, including the situation at Kena, is being prepared.
Meanwhile, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee of the Lithuanian Parliament, said that while current developments do not pose an immediate security threat, disembarking from transit trains should be better controlled. According to Rustamas Liubajevas, commander of the State Border Guard Service, Russians who get off the train in Kena would be able to travel to Lithuania by other means anyway as they have the correct papers for entering the EU.
The broader threat is that, by allowing Russians to access the EU by unauthorized means, Lithuania is signaling a lax attitude to rules and tolerance of double standards, undermining the West’s sanctions regime.
Even if the Russian authorities are merely passive observers, it would be naive to doubt they are collecting, analyzing, and integrating information on security gaps in Lithuania’s border into their military planning.
In the worst case, a Russian train could one day roll into Lithuanian territory as the vanguard of an armed attack. It would be unforgivable if it happened due to institutional neglect or system misuse.
Dr Justina Budginaite-Froehly is a researcher focusing on strategic security issues and geopolitics in the Baltic Sea region.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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