There have been at least 17 attacks on NATO’s frontline states and Moldova in the past month, either with proven or suspected Russian direction.
The alliance’s political leaders and military commanders now face a deteriorating picture, with some member states on the Black Sea making urgent appeals for military support, including combat aircraft and anti-drone systems.
Russia’s campaign still uses so-called sub-threshold attacks that are provocative and damaging, even lethal, while remaining just short of triggering NATO’s Article 5 common defense. But Russia’s behavior is becoming more reckless, as with the attempt to destroy aircraft at Leipzig airport in August and attacks on merchant shipping (detailed below). The pattern is also notable for attacks on Elon Musk’s Starlink system, seen as critical to the operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Here are some of the most recent incidents:
Poland. September 23: Starlink terminal outside Warsaw set on fire. Polish government says Russian involvement likely.
Moldova. October 3: Three Russian missiles and two drones entered Moldovan airspace. Debris found on Moldovan soil.
Latvia. October 5: Three armed men tried to enter Latvia from Belarus, pushing 20 immigrants ahead of them. The men damaged border equipment and stole video surveillance cameras. Latvian authorities suspect Belarus and Russia are behind the group that claimed responsibility for the incident, Чёрные русы, meaning Black Rus.
Moldova. October 5: Russian drone incursion on the Ukrainian-Moldovan border causes the first injury to a Moldovan citizen on Moldovan soil.
Romania. October 5: Turkish grain vessel Royad Mammadov hit by Russian drones while in the Romanian economic zone of the Black Sea. Two crew members killed and three injured.
Bulgaria. October 6: Two merchant vessels hit by Russian drones in the Bulgarian economic zone of the Black Sea.
- Turkish-owned Alfa Watan was sunk. All 10 crew members are missing.
- The Palau-flagged wheat-carrier Able was hit and caught fire.
Bulgaria. October 9: Starlink facilities near Sofia were set on fire by two masked individuals. 11 of the station’s 19 antennas, which enable technology used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, were destroyed.
Bulgaria. October 13: Two cargo vessels struck by Russian drones and missiles in the country’s Black Sea zone.
- Chelsea-3, sailing under the Maltese flag with a Ukrainian and Azerbaijani crew. The crew said the vessel was hit by three aerial drones. The ship remains in operation, and no crew members sustained serious injuries.
- The Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity, sailing with a Syrian and Egyptian crew, was hit. Eleven crew members are missing (and are now assumed to be dead).
Romania. October 14: Two ships close to the border of Romania’s territorial waters were struck by missiles.
- Wine Trader, flagged in San Marino, was hit one mile outside the Romanian waters. There are records of several casualties, and seven people are missing.
- Yara J, flying a Comoros flag. All 17 sailors, 17 from Syria, India, and Iran, survived the attack.
Moldova. October 14: Russian drone incursion.
Moldova. October 17: Five Russian drones entered Moldovan airspace over a span of 17 hours.
Romania. October 17: Romanian jets shoot down two jet-powered Russian Geran 4 drones heading into its airspace in the same area as previous strikes.
Lithuania. October 18: Drone exploded in Lithuanian airspace.
Lithuania: October 18: Arson attempt against Starlink antennas and control units, the third attack on the satellite system facilities on the eastern flank in a month.
Ester Ljunggren is CEPA Editorial Intern and a final-year undergraduate student at Gustavus Adolphus College, where she studies political science, economics, and Russian. Originally from Sweden, her research interests include European and Eurasian affairs, political economy, and authoritarianism and democratic resilience in the post-Soviet region.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
