It has been a long time coming, but ordinary Russians are now experiencing a fraction of the horrors inflicted by their regime upon their neighbor. Now too, they’re hearing their state-directed media hint about a darker future of mass mobilization for the despot’s war.
Unlike Russia’s military, Ukraine’s armed forces are not targeting civilians, but everyday life is nonetheless impacted by the strikes against oil refineries, arms factories, online retailers, and warehouses. For the first time in 20 years, a majority of Russians say the economy is getting worse.
It is a sign of Kremlin paranoia that its men and women in the media note all this and begin to talk about a possible uprising, complete with references to 1917.
Even the most ardent cheerleaders of Russia’s war of aggression have to acknowledge what is happening as a result of Ukrainian long-range attacks, not least because the skies of Moscow and St. Petersburg are regularly blackened by smoke from burning buildings.
Appearing on the July 25 broadcast of the radio show Morning-Z on channel Solovyov Live, military expert Andrey Klintsevich described his recent experiences on the road while wearing a military uniform and driving a military vehicle. Civilians used to wave and honk their horns to cheer for the troops, he noted, but this time they deliberately looked away. Klintsevich remarked: “This time, I only saw a tiredness in people’s eyes.” He interpreted this to mean: “We’re so sick of all of you military people.”
Loss of enthusiasm translates into a lack of desire to join the ranks of contemporary conquistadors. The number of volunteers rushing to sign military contracts has been steadily declining, despite promised benefits and sizeable cash payouts. Earlier in July, state TV host Vladimir Solovyov and member of Russia’s Federation Council Alexei Kondratiev encouraged women and those who are “wounded, sick, or crippled” to participate in the war effort.
There is a logic in the Kremlin’s public output. Media mouthpieces are given lines to take by senior regime officials during regular meetings. The approach is to recognize what worries the population and then to downplay or divert. It can also be used to signal what might be coming next, sometimes as a way of judging the public mood.
There are signals being sent and a public fear that the regime may repeat its fall 2022 decision to mobilize young Russian men. The reasoning is clear — with an estimated 450,000 dead and 1.4 million wounded, with volunteer recruitment falling and Russian forces still only making incremental territorial gains, there’s a need for new troops.
On July 22, the State Duma approved a law expanding eligibility for people with active criminal records, including defendants currently facing charges, to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry during formal mobilization periods.
Putin’s propagandists understand the mere mention of a potential mobilization has sent shockwaves through Russian society. These fears are acknowledged across the spectrum of the state media, which indicates they are perceived as a sizeable problem the Kremlin would like to override with its familiar bluster.
During the radio show Full Contact in late July, decorated state TV host Vladimir Solovyov complained about fears and rumors of an impending call-up spreading to every corner of Russia.
“Everyone is saying, ‘mobilization, mobilization,’” he said. He called for criminal prosecutions of the so-called Z-bloggers “for spreading panic” and said that he personally doesn’t see any need for mobilization “at this point in time.” Yet Solovyov did acknowledge that even his close friends no longer fall for his propaganda and believe that things are going from bad to worse, which in turn makes mobilization all but inevitable.
In recent days, other hosts have also frequently raised the topic of mobilization, and have mimicked Solovyov’s noncommittal, effusive response. They always stop short of denying the possibility that such a decision will be made, and instead claim in unison that right now, there is no need. That’s invariably quickly followed with a disclaimer that this is merely their “personal opinion.”
Chairman of the State Duma’s Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov was asked what he thought about the widespread rumors during his recent appearance on Radio Mayak. He replied: “I don’t think anything of these rumors” and asserted that there is currently “no need for mobilization.”
Listeners with long memories will have recalled that back in 2022, none other than Kartapolov also assured Russians there would be no mobilization. It began precisely one day later.
The hard work of the Kremlin’s propagandists is somewhat undermined by military recruiters — they have been using the gossip to encourage reticent citizens to sign up now and get paid for joining, with ads that read, “Why wait for mobilization? Serve for pay.”
During the July 27 unscheduled broadcast of Solovyov’s radio show Full Contact, the host appealed to the patriotic feelings of his listeners. He asked 72-year-old retired Reserve Colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok: “Are you in retirement or in reserves, since we’re at war?” Khodaryonok played along and replied: “You know, when military actions are underway, the age is irrelevant. Any citizen can be called up to carry out any operative tasks regardless of age, if the country’s security necessitates it.” Solovyov reacted with a happy grin.
Appearing on the state TV show 60 Minutes on July 24, Director of the Center for Strategic Communications Dmitry Abzalov implored Russia to end the war as quickly as possible and consider negotiations. He stressed that the alternative is a likely mobilization. Host Olga Skabeeva angrily emphasized that Russia has no choice but to keep fighting, since US President Donald Trump hadn’t delivered an acceptable peace deal and therefore destroyed Russia’s hopes and dreams.
One day before the State Duma’s rapid passing of its law, Russia’s National Guard, known as Rosgvardia, proposed amending the wording of the existing civil-defense rules to include protection “from dangers arising during the period of mobilization, during the period of martial law, in wartime.”
Russia’s previous mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September 2022 led to public protests and a mass exodus of military-age males from the country. Putin has avoided any repeat during the past four years, but speculation suggests he may resume the process after heavily rigged elections to the State Duma this fall.
On July 25, Solovyov Live guest, the military expert Andrey Klintsevich, discussed Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russian targets and noted that it’s likely to continue, which will multiply public discontent and may reach a boiling point in the event of an autumn mobilization.
The only real solution—the withdrawal of the Russian forces from Ukraine to end Putin’s ill-conceived imperial adventure—remains a taboo for the Kremlin’s media puppets.
Julia Davis is a columnist for The Daily Beast and the creator of the Russian Media Monitor. She has been sanctioned by the Russian Federation for her analysis of Russia’s propaganda, war crimes, and genocidal rhetoric. She is the author of the 2024 book ‘In Their Own Words: How Russian Propagandists Reveal Putin’s Intentions’.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
