Iran took a terrible and visible beating from Israeli and US air strikes in June. The consequences for Russia’s already frayed reputation as an ally were also significant, if less visible.
Remember that Iran is a tried and (supposedly) trusted ally of the Kremlin. It not only supplied Russia with long-range military drones and Shahed suicide drones that Moscow uses to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and civilian housing, but it also trained Russian personnel, which allowed the Kremlin to manufacture drones in its own territory without overreliance on supplies from Iran.
But when Iran’s regime looked to Moscow during the weeks of nationwide aerial assault, Moscow showed no gratitude and offered little help. Indeed, Kremlin propagandists emphasized that the strategic agreement signed with Iran in January did not commit it to armed assistance.
As Iran rakes through the rubble and the lessons of its abandonment, it may conclude that something even worse happened — that the Kremlin may actually have been attempting to stab it in the back.
According to secret FSB documents acquired by The Insider, Iran and Russia have been vigorously conducting an espionage war against one another, which has not decreased in intensity even against the background of the Russo-Ukraine war.
The leaks show that Iran wants Russian technology for turbojet engines and power plants used in rocket, aviation, oil, and gas industries, technology to build drones and electronic warfare systems. To this end, Iran actively conducts recruitment operations against Russian delegations traveling to Iran. Russian authorities are also concerned about “Shiite Islamic propaganda and establishment of positions in regional Muslim communities,” to quote their spy service.
For its part, Moscow has made it a priority to penetrate the Iranian security services. The FSB considers it important not only to prevent Iranian theft of Russian technology, but also to conduct its own intelligence operations against an ally, including the Iranian nuclear program. The Insider’s sources in Russian intelligence reveal that even during the presidency of Dmitriy Medvedev there was a course on how Iran was more of an enemy than an ally, and Russia never abandoned its position that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. There must be at least some suspicion in Tehran that Russia was actually happy to see Iran’s nuclear program bombed.
Russian cooperation with China seems no less strange. The Russians have often complained about the refusal of large Chinese banks to work with sanctioned Russian companies, while other Chinese financial institutions have begun to refuse funds from Russia or from its citizens, regardless of where they are located.
Military analysts also accused China of observing Western sanctions despite declaring its friendship with Moscow. Moreover, China is ready to share its products with Moscow but not its technologies.
In turn, in Russia, the number of criminal cases against scientists accused of treason grows year by year. As of the end of June, 94 scientists have been prosecuted in Russia for transferring data to third countries since 2022. Criminal cases have been opened against 43, and at least 10 are related to accusations of espionage for China.
Such accusations had been made before, but after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the FSB arrested four scientists one after the other, accusing them of spying for China and transferring technology to Beijing that might be used to develop the Avangard and Kinzhal missile systems. The accused claimed that all their scientific publications had been pre-approved by the FSB.
Novosibirsk physicist Dmitriy Kolker was arrested in June 2022 because of a lecture he delivered at a conference in China in 2018. He was suffering from late-stage pancreatic cancer and died three days after being transferred to the Lefortovo detention center. Sometimes the charges are based on quite dubious evidence. Professor Aleksey Vorobyov received 20 years for state treason: the investigation cited “Chinese dust” found on a memory card containing a photo of an abstract, which was allegedly sent abroad.
Moscow’s conduct toward its nominal ally, Armenia, is no less contradictory. This not only concerns a lack of assistance to Yerevan in its armed conflict with Azerbaijan, despite a mutual defense treaty, but also recent information about an attempted coup in that country, which it hints is linked to Russia. Armenian law enforcement claims that the coup plan was a step-by-step scheme to destabilize the government, from the creation of strike groups to the destruction of key infrastructure.
So, what to conclude? It’s fair to say that Russia is an extremely bad ally, but also that something more serious is at play — that the Kremlin will take all it can get from allies while waging espionage campaigns against their vital interests, siding with their enemies during conflict, and offering little more than words when a crisis flares.
Kseniya Kirillova is an analyst focused on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, and foreign policy. The author of numerous articles for CEPA and the Jamestown Foundation, she has also written for the Atlantic Council, Stratfor, and others.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End
Russia’s Shadow Warfare
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
