A 38-year-old nationalist has won the first round of the closely watched presidential election re-run. George Simion has not yet taken power but is the favorite to become president and so take control of Romanian foreign policy.
Simion, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and who wears a MAGA red baseball cap during campaigning, won 41% in the first round on May 4, far more than opinion and exit polls predicted. He will face the pro-European mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan (21%), in the May 18 second round.
Dan, an independent, narrowly pipped the government candidate, Crin Antonescu, thanks to votes from the large diaspora. In the aftershock of the result, Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned, and Catalin Predoiu, the Liberal Interior Minister, was appointed interim premier. The Social Democrats also announced they were pulling out of the coalition, leaving a minority two-party administration. If Simion wins the runoff, it seems likely the Social Democrats and Simion’s AUR would form a government.
The vote marked the latest chapter in a tumultuous period that started in November when the Kremlin-friendly candidate Călin Georgescu unexpectedly came first. That led to the county’s highest court to annul the election citing Russian interference.
Simion made a variety of inflammatory comments about the first round, including a suggestion that those behind the overturned vote be “skinned” for their “coup.” Georgescu was later banned from the redo but was photographed with Simion at a polling station in the May 4 vote.
Simion seeks to reverse Romania’s help to Ukraine and is critical of the European Union. He has promised to name Georgescu as prime minister or appoint him to another position in high office.
Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, has pledged to strengthen Romania’s ties with Europe and keep Romania on its pro-Western course. To win, he will need to convince his rivals’ voters to swing behind him and stir some interest among the 47% of Romanians who did not vote. The biggest winner from May 4 was apathy, which outstripped Simion’s share by 6%.
The December annulment, two days before the runoff, was criticized by US Vice President JD Vance, Elon Musk, and nationalist figures and movements in Europe, as well as the Kremlin. Vance argued, as he has regarding Germany that European elections must be free from state interference.
Simion’s overwhelming first-round win in a field of 11 was fueled by anger and claims that voters’ democratic rights had been trampled on. He used a sophisticated and grievance-laden social media campaign to appeal to those mostly rural voters disillusioned by worsening corruption and concerned that the prosperity in big cities was not mirrored in their lives.
The final result will be closely watched by Brussels, European capitals, Washington, and Kyiv, as well as in the Kremlin. The outcome could alter the fate of the country and the stability of NATO and the European Union’s eastern frontier.
With a Simion presidency, Romania risks losing its reputation as a predictable Western ally amidst a populist revolt against the liberal order that would align him with Viktor Orban in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia.
It would unsettle investors, and a strategic change in its position toward Ukraine could undermine its neighbor’s war effort.
Simion has promised to “take back control” from Brussels, negotiate Romania’s EU budget contributions, and prioritize “Romania first” policies.
Romania shares the longest EU border with Ukraine of more than 600km (370 miles) and its Black Sea port at Constanța facilitates Ukrainian grain exports through Romanian territorial waters down to Istanh. It hosts NATO’s largest land base near the Black Sea, and it has given shelter to some 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. Western arms flow across its borders.
Simion has vowed to end Romania’s support for Ukraine and has called for “neutrality.” He describes Ukraine’s territorial integrity as “negotiable,” a position similar to the Kremlin’s.
His goal of recovering “lost” territories in Moldova and Ukraine has led to him being declared persona non grata in both countries, a potential handicap as the president is in charge of foreign policy.
Given the discontent in Romanian society, a popular backlash was predictable. While economic growth and opportunities have helped the cities, rural areas lack infrastructure and investment, while Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused serious cost-of-living issues for poorer people.
Alison Mutler is a British journalist who has been working in Romania for almost 35 years. She was the Associated Press bureau chief for 25 years and was part of a team that covered the Romanian revolution for the British TV channel ITN. For the past five years, she has worked for the Romanian-English website Universul.net and has been its director for three years.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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